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Open source AI must win

opensourceaimustwin.com

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Re: Open source AI must win

#183
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can run open weight models on our own machines.

yes, but a model that runs on my own machine will never have the capacity of a model that runs in a datacenter. as i said, it can't compete with that.

> a model that runs on my own machine will never have the capacity of a model that runs in a datacenter.

I don’t think so. A local run model only needs to serve one or a few people. It seems possible to run a DeepSeek v4 model at full capacity on a server costing 200k usd. Very expensive but not impossible.

Factor in hardware and software improvements over time, and the fact that most people may just need to run a smaller and quantized model, it should take a pc at 10k usd scale.

Re: Open source AI must win

#184

I think articles this light on content should not be upvoted to front page.

I think that the events of this evening (really of this past week) are almost unprecedented in the history of tech. Sometimes a clear and concise message is more important than nuanced analysis.

Re: Open source AI must win

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then the Amish see the world around them using electricity and cars and think, "Yep, I'm happier without that." And they're one of the few groups on earth with a growing population, so they're doing something right.

1. Your assumption that a growing population is the metric of success is questionable. A population that grows but is subject to famine, epidemics, and natural disasters because they haven’t developed the scientific and technological capacity to escape the existential risks of the physical world is living on borrowed time. Not saying I agree with that, and I would actually agree that there is merit to the Amish hypot…

>Your assumption that a growing population is the metric of success is questionable.

It's a better measure than GDP/S&P/401(k) line-go-up especially [re: America] when the native Euro-based population has been aging and dropping for decades, once you strip away all the post Hart-Cellar immigrant lineages.

Re: Open source AI must win

#186
post #100

I've been contemplating a decentralized model training system for some time using volunteer machines that we all contribute. But, it is astronomically difficult. The communication speeds are untenable. And, there is the issue of data poisoning from untrusted nodes. I've almost cracked that last issue with a self-healing checkpointed rollback system that doesn't have to throw out anything that follows the corrupt datu…

> The total power of all GPUs on the planet dwarf their capabilities That just isn't true. It misunderstands exactly how much silicon has gone directly to those companies, and exactly how much more powerful said silicon is compared to consumer grade gear.

If folding@home is a useful yardstick by which we might estimate the amount of GPU-ish capability that civilians might be coaxed into donating to a shared enterprise, yeah, it doesn't look pretty. This is extremely rough napkin math but comparing to xAI's Collosus 2 for example, for training workflows you're probably looking at 4-5 orders of magnitude the capability of all of folding@home combined. That's 100,000 times faster.

Very rough math like I said but I doubt it's directionally wrong.

And even if you did force literally everyone on earth with some sort of GPU to max it out 24/7 in service of an open source AI training enterprise - you would waste so much power trying to use that inefficient consumer hardware with the worst latency imaginable that it would be cheaper and faster to get everyone to instead chip in some cash to buy a datacenter with blackwell chips instead! So the idea has no legs whatsoever.

Re: Open source AI must win

#188

In the US -- once our nation finishes attacking our own education system -- this is definitely something a group of academic institutions could get together and accomplish. I assume the same is true in other countries. Companies like Nvidia and AMD might even support that effort, as they make money on the hardware and would probably be more than happy for there to be more reasons to use it. There may have not been a…

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Re: Open source AI must win

#189

I've been contemplating a decentralized model training system for some time using volunteer machines that we all contribute. But, it is astronomically difficult. The communication speeds are untenable. And, there is the issue of data poisoning from untrusted nodes. I've almost cracked that last issue with a self-healing checkpointed rollback system that doesn't have to throw out anything that follows the corrupt datu…

Could it be done by making a sparse MoE of thousands, or tens of thousands, of smaller experts in very niche domains? Maybe a tree-like structure of experts which can delegate from relatively general but inaccurate to extremely niche but accurate? Also these experts might be plug-and-play, easily swap out an inferior expert with a stronger one in the future without having to redo the whole pile?
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