I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.
So are you short the market?
crashes aren't shortable unless you know exactly when they are going to happen
Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
181–190 of 345 posts
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#182Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#183The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.
While I agree on the smell I think that the situations are really different. I am not an economist but I think that other than the situation of the huge amount of money in play we are in a really different case. The general user (and I have noticed it especially with today's WWDC) basically doesn't get any benefit from AI (neither LLMs, image generation or photo editing). They were promised living like in Wall-e in 5…
There is ton of utility. I use it all the time to study, to look up what's happening in the world, to understand the context behind what others are saying, cooking recipes, and much more. Considering LLMs have access to tools for searching the internet they have a superset of the capabilities of Google and consumers got a lot of value from Google. In fact from putting ads on the search results Google has made billions of dollars from such consumers getting value from their service.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#184The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.
There was a similar wave of IPOs with Uber and AirB&B, not tied to a bubble popping.
(I mean, I think this looks incredibly like a bubble too, but for completeness sake, that's the counterexample I can think of.)
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
A very unserious tone from probably the most consequential company of our lifetimes. It's vibing all the way to the top I guess.
I prefer this tone to fake marketing speak. If they’d done a proper job here they’d be accused of having GPT write it. At least this is organic laziness!
Their tone is just as fake as typical fake marketing speak - they are trying to come off as nonchalant. I bet this announcement was wordsmithed to hell.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#186The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.
The content of all these comments has a smell similar to 2023 when NVDA had a spectacular run and HN was absolutely sure that AI is a bubble.
It's also similar to 2024 when HN was sure that AI is a bubble.
Similar to 2025 when HN commentators were sure that AI is a bubble.
1000% gains later, HN will continue to identify patterns of 2000/2008 and are absolutely convinced it is a bubble
Note: If a company gains 1000% and loses 50%, you can't claim you were right.
Both OpenAI and Anthropic have already gained 1000% since 2023 (In Anthropic's case almost 10,000%)
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#187The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.
While I agree on the smell I think that the situations are really different. I am not an economist but I think that other than the situation of the huge amount of money in play we are in a really different case. The general user (and I have noticed it especially with today's WWDC) basically doesn't get any benefit from AI (neither LLMs, image generation or photo editing). They were promised living like in Wall-e in 5…
My father in law owns a small manufacturing business and is not technical at all. His computer skills stop with some CAD and basic excel. He pays for ChatGPT as does his wife and her kids. The internet and dot com bubble didn't have millions and millions of non technical users paying cash for a product. Almost every coffee shop I go to has people talking about AI and ChatGPT even in areas with no tech populations.
I still think it could crash, but it's got real users and a mind share like nothing I've ever seen.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#188The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.
While I agree on the smell I think that the situations are really different. I am not an economist but I think that other than the situation of the huge amount of money in play we are in a really different case. The general user (and I have noticed it especially with today's WWDC) basically doesn't get any benefit from AI (neither LLMs, image generation or photo editing). They were promised living like in Wall-e in 5…
> I think that the situations are really different
Keep in mind that people said this before both of those crashes.That's the problem with bubbles. It's impossible to say if this time really IS different.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#189I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.
[deleted]
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
While I agree on the smell I think that the situations are really different. I am not an economist but I think that other than the situation of the huge amount of money in play we are in a really different case. The general user (and I have noticed it especially with today's WWDC) basically doesn't get any benefit from AI (neither LLMs, image generation or photo editing). They were promised living like in Wall-e in 5…
My father in law owns a small manufacturing business and is not technical at all. His computer skills stop with some CAD and basic excel. He pays for ChatGPT as does his wife and her kids. The internet and dot com bubble didn't have millions and millions of non technical users paying cash for a product. Almost every coffee shop I go to has people talking about AI and ChatGPT even in areas with no tech populations. I…
I definitely believe in the broad existence of people like your father in law. What I’m not sure about is how many of them would keep paying if their subscriptions were priced profitably.