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Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

simonwillison.net

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Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#181
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am wondering more and more if this becomes true as these smaller models take off. I might be old fashioned but I have yet to crack the workflows some of the hype people spout like Claude codes Boris where he and others talk about running hundreds of agents overnight. I have still found the sweet spot for me is using LLMs but I am still in the drivers seat.

Running hundreds of agents overnight is almost certainly 99 percent waste.

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Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#182

> I noted that my own token usage comes to about $1,000/month against each of Anthropic and OpenAI - which currently costs me just $100 per provider thanks to their generous subsidized plans for individual subscribers. Do we know that AI providers are going to keep these per-token prices, or eventually lower them because of competition from China? Many lower-budget individuals are now moving to China open weight mode…

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Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One aspect Paul Kedrosky mentioned recently is the concept of „duration mismatch“. The price per token goes down over time (either because the AI vendor reduces due to competition pressure, or because customers are now incentivized to use older cheaper models). But datacenters are financed through debt, with the assumption their revenue increases over time. Quoting him: „[AI vendors are] paying for a fixed cost with…

do GPU chips really depreciate physically? There are no moving parts, I dont think memory chips or GPU chips deteriorate naturally. I think its only accounting depreciation. I have been using my laptop for a decade, what is stopping datacenters from using the purchased GPU chips for a decade?

Your laptop doesn't have a 100% duty cycle. If you ran it like a data center it would indeed wear out much faster.

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#184
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they'll have a choice, open weights models are not far behind. At some point it's essentially a commodity game

they also already do this… Anthropic and OpenAI license to the public clouds. Google reportedly licenses to Apple. licensing to Fortune 100 companies running on their own infra is an obvious next step it is a race to the bottom and I’m not sure the labs win that race. we’ll see!

I'm not sure the labs will win either. I wouldn't be surprised to see OpenAI & Anthropic just get acquired, either by Microsoft or Amazon and their models just become another product offering in their public cloud and and some hybrid on-prem offering like Azure Stack HCI or Azure Stack Hub (already basically a "cloud in a black box" that could become "AI in a box")

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#185

Why there are so many people that still believe that AI coding is a fad? It's something that started less than two years ago and companies are already paying thousands per seat. I know one that gives you 5k per month. Which other tool went from nothing to this level of acceptance so quickly?

perhaps the personal computer? Companies were spending 3-5k (10-15k inflation adjusted) on every employee for just hardware. everyone making comparisons to the dotcom bubble seems misguided. this is clearly computing 2.0 imo

I think the right comparison is the invention of the microprocessor. At that time people were grappling with a lot of the same things we are today - would it automate jobs away, would it transform education and the work place, etc.

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#186
post #37

How many more months do we need to wait, until big companies realize that flash models work just fine if you: 1) Don't ask LLMs for big changes 2) Review everything and point them in the right direction Large models still suck at big changes, they produce questionable architecture and you still have to review the code, if your project is serious enough. The codebase quickly become a mess, if you don't pay enough atte…

It's pretty simple; organizations are willing to tolerate paying $1500/month/engineer, which seems to be roughly inline with "normal" consumption for most full-time engineers. If that number grows significantly, then I bet companies will start exploring flash models more, as you propose.

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#187

I wonder what they are doing with $1500 per month. I'm on Claude Pro $20 plan and I'm doing well. That's 3 days per week. On the other 2 days I'm using a customer's Claude Max, I don't know if it's the $100 or the $200 plan, but I'm sharing it with some of its other developers.

I'm on a $100 Claude Max plan, my usage is only about 50% of the plan limits, but in the last 30 days my usage was equivalent to API token spend of $1850. If you save all your Claude Code conversations, the saved files include API costs and you can calculate this yourself.

One of my most expensive sessions cost me over $100 in token spend in a single evening. I'd just found out that the time tracking & invoicing SaaS I use is increasing their monthly pricing by 2.4x - so I assigned Claude Opus 4.8 to recreate the entire SaaS for myself, and load in 13 years of my historical data. I've only completed a full read-only implementation so far, with adding & editing of records still to come, but I do expect Claude will have fully recreated the entire SaaS for me at an API cost less than a single 1 year seat of continued subscription to their service. And since I'm actually on a Max plan, it didn't actually cost me $200 of tokens at all.

coff i would not buy the Bending Spoons IPO coff saaspocalypse

I could ramble on about where the other $1750 of usage goes, but I imagine it's similar for most heavy Claude / AI users. Interactive coding sessions, a daily personalized podcast, some automated overnight agentic "proactive" sessions, a daemon that wakes up if I send Claude an email or voicetext to check something when I'm out. I've also noticed that if Claude's tool-use goes haywire & Claude gets confused or lost, sometimes a single email reply session that would normally be just $1 of API might spiral to $12 of API while it bangs its head against trying to run a program that's in a different folder to the one it's currently in. Sometimes a simple 'pwd' would save you a lot of headache, Claude....

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#188

Why there are so many people that still believe that AI coding is a fad? It's something that started less than two years ago and companies are already paying thousands per seat. I know one that gives you 5k per month. Which other tool went from nothing to this level of acceptance so quickly?

I would use these exact facts as a sign that it's maybe not what it seems. It's much too big and too fast to feel stable. It might keep at that level, increase even more, or drop down to a saner level of use / allocation.

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an extra 18k a year for developer tools when they're paying how much a year per developer? Having software developers at all isn't cheap. Also, I don't believe you need to spend $1500 a month on a coding agent if you optimize usage at all.

That depends on where you are. $18K is the equivalent of paying around 15% more for your developer.

In hcol locations yes, but in south of spain you can get full time talent for that figure. It's also an entry-level salary in eastern europe, with ukraine and turkey even being somewhat cheaper.

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

id be amazed any american business will aend data to china

HuggingFace offers DeepSeek as one of its models— it's pretty simple to spin up instances under your control. I'm not sure about OpenRouter but I wouldn't be surprised if they offer a US-based provider of DeepSeek. For reference, Cursor has their first own light fork of Kimi that they use as their baseline coding and review model.

The majority of Deepseek providers on OpenRouter for v4 pro are in the US. Especially interesting is that they are in the same ballpark for pricing.
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