The Last Technical Interview

Most places still interview. Because hiring someone for 3-6 months is still an expense. For large companies, onboarding can take many weeks before you're even thinking about being productive. Interviews don't need to be 100% accurate. They need to be time-efficient and an ok filter to prevent hiring the worst people.

I don't see how a bad job market is going to make skilled people be willing to intern in order to get employment. Employment is a market, if demand goes down, then the reaction will be that price goes down.

The reason students are willing to intern is because the supply is so high and demand so low that you can effectively hire them for nothing (or next to nothing). The interns know that on completion the internship will upgrade them to a new category with new supply/demand. It's the same reason they are willing to pay large amounts for a university degree.

So interviewing will stay the same. If demand collapses, we will see wages drop, and I imagine the supply of software people will react through early retirement, career switching and reduction of people choosing it as a career before we see an upheaval of hiring methods.

A scoping/guidance suggestion to start: Is the problem of improving hiring more tractable if you don't try to solve it for Google?

What if Google is hopelessly tainted with biases, from having run almost every single person there through a process that you acknowledge is a horrific load of poo. Which not only means the process has become a religion/frathouse that people are proud to have been accepted into, and will defend fiercely, but also greatly determines the strengths and weaknesses you have to work with, if you want to get them to do anything else.

What if you instead start with smaller companies that don't have the baggage of FAANG, and look at their requirements, which may include some mix of (off the top of my head): prior experience, learns whatever is needed, creative/innovative, works as a team member, aligned with company success, professionalism, good for morale, good for catalyst, will have some loyalty during the harder stretches or when tempted by a little more money.

It would be nice if, instead of many 2-person startups making their first hire with the assumption that they should mimic the known-bad processes of megacorps (often based on their own FAANG-oriented interview prep in college), the megacorps were desperately trying to figure out how to hire as smartly and genuinely as SMBs, but at FAANG scale and with all the FAANG legacy workforce biases clawing them down.

You need an NDA from a candidate (many would not like to risk - what if someone gets job on the competing company and is sued for revealing some secrets from the campfire interview process).

In many cases interviewee would need to get a laptop from the company, as there are specific requirements about data security (disc encryption, usage of solutions like Fortinet or Zscaler), be added to company SAP to get access to the resources (Office, Teams, etc.), company need to purchase licenses for Office, Github, Jira, etc.

Surely hiring is hard, surely there are false positives and false negatives, but fixing this requires hell a lot of resources and organizational changes and costs.

Number 1 can still be true, and likely is. But then what's the point of using dated packets to test the hiring committees calibration?