181–190 of 234 posts
> He did not enter a plea and was released on a $2.25 million bond I'm not familiar with the US system of bond. Is this payment a kind of fine that you don't get back, or a temporary payment? And what does it give you? I mean if prosecuted you get prison anyway, right?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…
Sure, but let’s consider the bet the accused took: who is the most searched person in 2025. What benefit is there in knowing this ahead of time? Who is making decisions based on this?
Interesting to see that insider trading is considered illegal after all. When will the white house insiders see the same fate?
> He did not enter a plea and was released on a $2.25 million bond I'm not familiar with the US system of bond. Is this payment a kind of fine that you don't get back, or a temporary payment? And what does it give you? I mean if prosecuted you get prison anyway, right?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…
Nice try to make crimes sound legal.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It barely makes sense, though? The idea is that it will surface insider information to the public. That happens only because the insider is financially incentivized to place a bet. But they will only bet if they can win money, and they can only win money if someone is taking the other side of their bet, which necessarily means someone without their insider information. In other words, prediction markets require sucke…
yes it is good in many scenarios. Imagine bad (incorrect and potentially harmful) information is public knowledge. Examples are "X cures cancer" or "Is Y dangerous to consume". A prediction market will be seeded by public knowledge (of course it cures cancer or its safe to consume), which you describe "suckers". History is filled with many examples of bad public knowledge that turned out to be false (e.g. DDT is safe…
I was curious how a man in Switzerland gets charged in the US for a placing bets on a site that doesn't allow the US to participate. The short answer seems to be that he stole private information from a US company and used that information to enrich himself. And then got that charge enhanced with things like wire fraud and transacting on systems involving US currency. And another commentor suggests that punishing ins…
Transacting on systems involving a currency (USDC) that is pegged to a US currency.
Pretty sure he sold Swiss Francs for USDC and deposited those onto Polymarket (after running them through mixers -- hence the money laundering charges).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Is insider trading a crime on prediction markets? Yes, it is both against the CFTC's regulations and against the companies' T&Cs. > Doesn’t it contribute to the accuracy of the pricing of prediction contracts, and therefore is good for the prediction market? That's irrelevant, the purpose of these markets is to provide fair bets for entertainment, not information.
> against the companies' T&Cs Not a crime, or certainly shouldn't be.
But also I don't think the T&C's came into play here. This is strictly his employer (Google) told him to keep this information confidential and he didn't and instead profited from it.
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Nice try to make crimes sound legal.
Nice try to make a law sound moral.
But I bet (pun intended) many of them teach giving away other people‘s secrets (including companies and governments) for personal profit is wrong.
Imagine Venezuela getting information on the planned abduction of Maduro because of him https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas...
Could have been a harder fight with more causalities
> He did not enter a plea and was released on a $2.25 million bond I'm not familiar with the US system of bond. Is this payment a kind of fine that you don't get back, or a temporary payment? And what does it give you? I mean if prosecuted you get prison anyway, right?
Tangentially, it's really important to be out on bail while your court case progresses. Access to lawyers, income, friends, support, research, etc is a critical factor in preparing your defense.
Here's a fun paper https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/695285