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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

avkcode.github.io

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#181
post #33

> where it matters most: commercialization. It begs the question because both its premise and assertion are already wrong. Has AI improved the industrial capacity of the US in order to improve the lives of its citizens? No it hasn't. Has AI increased the wealth of its citizens by being able to do laundry or any household task in a generalized way? No it hasn't. The only thing it's really done is make very narrow slic…

[deleted]

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#182
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol I'm pretty sure the "deep state" just means, "manipulating the levers of power from a place without accountablity/oversight" which covers both these shadowy hidden layers of govt you describe and the shadowy wealthy elites funding and lobbying for whatever. It can be both.

I agree with parent, that's not how right-wing propaganda portrays the deep state. It's a strawman, of unaccountable government bureacrats. It excludes billionaires and dark money in politics (the real problem), they put themselves on the good side. (Remember DOGE?)

term predates that right-wing propaganda

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is pursuing these because they cannot compete on the frontier. ? Claude, ChatGPT, etc are heinously expensive for tiny benefits lmao. Local + efficient is clearly the future

> ? Claude, ChatGPT, etc are heinously expensive for tiny benefits lmao. Local + efficient is clearly the future Corporate America is where the money is, and corporate America will dictate what products are successful by virtue of spend. Individuals aren't going to be paying $100s or $1000s/month en masse for these models but businesses will be. Being local and efficient isn't that important at this stage but even so…

> You buy an iPhone even though the cheap-o Wal-Mart Android phone for $100 "does the same thing".

People buy iPhones because of status signalling and network effects, neither of which appears to apply to AI model choice. LLMs are already rapidly on the way to being interchangeable commodities.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t take China on face value, they have every incentive to promote a grifting military industrial complex in the US while focusing on competing in manufacturing. An actual war would fix a lot of the grifting in the US as it would align interests. Pretending they’ll go to war over Taiwan and not doing it is an effective strategy for undermining the US.

I hope you are right, but unfortunately there is no particular reason to trust China's leadership anymore. They are not nearly as obvious at Trump, but they are not on a good path.

I'm explicitly distrusting them, they're saying they want to take Taiwan and I don't believe them. I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games. There is an element of manipulating your opponent into acting the way you want them to by sending them costly false signals, they have to be costly or they won't be believed. I think we (the West) are being played and the gifting elements in our political leadership are more than happy to play along. I'm sure China would like to take Taiwan if it wouldn't cost them anything, but the US is a waning hegemony so for now it is better to wait until the US is beyond fixing itself. At this rate that may not take long.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#186

I don't think so. From a nation state perspective, AI is a munition. Every advanced nation is going to have their own cyber division with their own AI hosted within its borders. Considering how xenophobic and belligerent the US is, nobody is going to want their national cyber defenses hosted in the US. On a personal level, I simply do not trust the US anymore. I won't host any of my personal data in a US company. I d…

The US is not xenophobic. That is ridiculous. Any time you say stuff like that, you discredit the things you say that actually make sense. I'm with you on the privacy aspect, but there are multiple dimensions of that which you're ignoring. I'd much prefer taking my chances in the US than in the EU, where they are constantly trying to push companies to weaken privacy.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>from biology ... much greater efficiency is possible Those are much more specialized models with pretty mediocre tokens per second.

Perhaps tokens is a dead end?

Perhaps! But perhaps whatever human brains use instead of tokens is not as amenable to scaling or copying.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#188
post #87
post #33

> where it matters most: commercialization. It begs the question because both its premise and assertion are already wrong. Has AI improved the industrial capacity of the US in order to improve the lives of its citizens? No it hasn't. Has AI increased the wealth of its citizens by being able to do laundry or any household task in a generalized way? No it hasn't. The only thing it's really done is make very narrow slic…

AI has definitely improved the industrial capacity of the US

Assertions made without evidence can be rejected without evidence.

t. literally works on AI for industrial applications

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#189
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a war in the sense that there's a concern that eventually you hit a singularity and can outsmart others in ways not constrained by human scales. If you make better guns, you're still limited by how many people can carry them. You can't conquer the world just like this. But if someone invents super intelligence, they can dominate new AI research, control global economies, fight much better, and all very quickly.

> But if someone invents super intelligence, they can dominate new AI research, control global economies, fight much better, and all very quickly. After reading "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" I think this is not the correct take. If anyone creates ASI, it just means it's going to wipe everyone out, and it doesn't matter if China or the US do it first

It destroying us all is not a foregone conclusion

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#190

This is patently absurd. US AI companies are investing non-existent money on huge infrastructure with negligible income. This cannot be sustained. And if/when it fails it will take down the economy of the US and probably any other country touching us business.

Almost as if concentrating all of the wealth and decision-making into the hands of a few billionaires is a bad idea...

They kept telling us Soviet central planning was inefficient and ineffective, while the lean rationality of the free market something something...
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