Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

e360.yale.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 248 posts

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#181

Post by munksbeer »

ordu wrote: post #148
bastawhiz wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The scientists aren't journalists. Convince a politician to start planning for national security considerations. Tell them how it'll affect supply chains. Frame it in a way that literally anyone who has a vested interest in doing something would care about.

It is easier said than done. Politicians do not like to be disturbed by some pesky experts. Mentor Pilot discusses 2025 D.C mid-air collision[1], and finds the most disturbing reason for it: experts tried to escalate issues with too much traffic for years, but they were repeatedly told that it was "too political", so, in other words "just shut up and deal with the traffic, don't bother congressmen and congresswomen,…

> but we can't make politicians to listen to the reason.

You're stopping too early. Politicians exist for one reason only, to get elected. If they don't get elected, they're not a politician, so everything they do is is selected with that as their fitness function.

So why won't they listen about climate change? Because the public doesn't want to be told they have to make their lives slightly worse. There are "politicians" in the UK who constantly warn about climate change. Guess what? They won't get elected.

In other words, you're blaming the symptom, not the cause. The general populous is the real reason.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#182

Post by postflopclarity »

cagey wrote: post #178
postflopclarity wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except that every time the boy cried wolf, there actually was a wolf and it ate some people, but then the people it didn't eat were like "idk what you're talking about, I'm doing just fine" and then plugged their ears.

Well that's not how I heard the fable, and not how the authoritative reference recalls it either[0]. If "every time the boy cried wolf, there actually was a wolf and it ate some people", then it would hardly be a fable about giving a false alarm, would it? [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_Who_Cried_Wolf

... yes. that's my point. the fable is not a good analogy in this context.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#184

Post by darkmarmot »

As someone in the Venn diagram intersection of "software engineer" and "studied climate/astrophysics/planetary science" in school, reading comments here is painfully disheartening. Virtually everyone highly engaged in this field is anticipating multiple, systemic apocalyptic scenarios that will end modern life as we know it. I'd assume that most of the people reading have enough of a calculus background to understand some of the underlying math. I implore you to find a good book or course on it.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#185

Post by anadem »

mlhpdx wrote: post #105
postflopclarity wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the 50th headline they’ve read on how we’re screwed today that hasn’t happened the things are happening though. e.g. if you read a headline in the 70s that said something like "ski seasons will shorten by an average of 1 day per year, leading to only 5 inches of snow water equivalent in Colorado resorts by 2026, and eliminating the economic viability of skiing in the northeast by 2060" that would have been complete…

Maybe, but that’s a far stride or two from the “doomsday” pitched at laypeople.

The issue is not that that itself is the doomsday, but that when the current collapses the climate trajectory changes and aims at catastrophe, and changing that will be beyond our ability

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#186

Post by mlhpdx »

anadem wrote: post #185
mlhpdx wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, but that’s a far stride or two from the “doomsday” pitched at laypeople.

The issue is not that that itself is the doomsday, but that when the current collapses the climate trajectory changes and aims at catastrophe, and changing that will be beyond our ability

I’m not saying it isn’t bad. I clearly understand it’s bad.

My point is that this kind of headline doesn’t help the cause. It’s hyperbolic nonsense to laypeople, though they may use the more colloquial term “bullshit”. Getting people to pay attention is really, really hard given the tremendous volume of hyperbole they see every day.

I don’t know what the solution is, but I know this kind of headline works against it.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#187

Post by pipodeclown »

scoofy wrote: post #164
2ndorderthought wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has made huge efforts toward sustainable power. Google it. The us on the other hand is well you know blowing up oil all over the world with military conflicts that are wars but aren't wars but are wars that are over but evolving and over and evolving. They are also rolling back green energy projects , fueling data centers with gas, etc.

China’s greatest geopolitical weakness is lack of access to petroleum. That’s why they are going so hard on renewables. We just get the benefits for free.

Sure but that doesn't change the fact that they are charging s Ahead while the rest of us sit on our hands.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#188

Post by SiempreViernes »

9rx wrote: post #82
embedding-shape wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So they should be more like "Atlantic currents might shut down, we'll see what happens and if it'll be good or bad" when they already can tell the effects will be pretty bad? Wouldn't that be basically burying the lede?

You'd have to ask the one who raised concern with this in the first place. What is apparent, though, is that "good or bad" is contrary to science. Science seeks to understand what is, not how you might feel about it. It is interesting that things went there.

> Science seeks to understand what is, not how you might feel about it. It is interesting that things went there.

No, it's not interesting at all: the clamouring for climate scientists to not use words like "bad" about increased severity and frequency of forest fires, flash floods, droughts, etc is just the expected outcome of boring old corruption. There's really no other reason for someone to object to calling tornadoes "bad" than them or theirs getting paid to say it.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#189

Post by joquarky »

jmward01 wrote: post #62
causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

So many of those 'could maybe happen' are, in fact, happening right now. The researcher is also quoted as saying 'more likely than not' which is pretty big when it comes to something like the AMOC shutting down. This really is catastrophic and really should be causing governments to take immediate, massive, steps to avert it including steps to sanction countries that are causing it.

The government entities that can actually do anything are only reactionary now.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#190

Post by joquarky »

idiotsecant wrote: post #152
graemep wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that those were not the headlines. There were headlines in the 80s saying AMOC would collapse by now.

"I read a headline that turned out to be wrong, all headlines adjacent to that original one are now wrong" You are constantly seeing all manner of predictions. When someone makes a wrong prediction that is not a indicator that the thing will never happen. Otherwise I would bet that I will suffer no problematic effects if I stop paying a mortgage.

You're assuming most people think critically.
Post reply on HN