Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense • Hacker News Board

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#181

Post by usefulcat » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:44 PM UTC

cbdevidal wrote: post #108

hrldcpr wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably people who voted for Trump are somewhat responsible, and include a lot of car drivers. (Not to imply that many Democrat politicians aren't also owned by AIPAC and big business.)

I didn’t vote for Trump but I don’t blame the voters. I don’t think many people foresaw him doing this on either side of the political aisle. Other stuff we disapprove of, yes. But not this. I say that because he had famously resisted to enter extended conflict in his first term. Maybe he wanted to but now has the chance since he’s in his final years. (At least, I hope it’s his final years.) But I didn’t hear anyone…

He's notoriously unpredictable. I would agree that it's more obvious now, but I think it was still quite obvious in his first term, especially after inciting a riot at the Capitol.

Given the rashness that he displayed prior to his second term, I don't see why it's at all surprising that he would start a war. To think otherwise just seems like wishful thinking.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#182

Post by otterley » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #106

If you are trading in the futures market and you don't have inside info or are not an actual supplier of the commodity, you are the sucker.

That logic would also extend to individual stocks, wouldn’t it?

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#183

Post by dnemmers » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC

trollbridge wrote: post #103

yieldcrv wrote: post #83

The warring parties greatly influence the price of oil futures but they are not the only influences, and there are other markets The losses of market participants and the gains from insiders is difficult for me to take seriously as a problem in commodities market I read all of the cases in the article

The article displays a laughably out of date view of futures markets, too There are people and institutions, such as oil producers, who will need to sell oil at a future date. They want to lock in the price today on those future sales. There are also people and institutions, such as airlines, who have a future need for oil and would like to lock in the price today. Airlines haven’t hedged fuel in a long time and gene…

Airlines are absolutely still hedging fuel:

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/airline-fuel-hedging-iran...

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#184

Post by otterley » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC

sheiyei wrote: post #144

fooblaster wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Airlines can't raise the prices of tickets sold months ago. There is still financial reason to hedge.

The trick is to sell tickets based on the cost at time of sale, and just cancel flights when it's convenient.

It doesn’t work that way. Canceling flights has significant business-impacting downstream effects that go beyond mitigating the loss caused by a bad bet.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#185

Post by chneu » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:50 PM UTC

imglorp wrote: post #150

What if the whole point of the war was planned to generate trading opportunities? Every crazy tweet or announcement another cash out. It's like every time you see a poorly run business and you think, how can they stay open? The answer is it's usually a laundering operation, a tax shelter, and who knows what else. The message to us poors is, nothing these people do is as it appears; there's always a bunch of stacked,…

While I don't think trump and co are smart enough to plan big stuff like this, I think it is pretty obvious they are trying to benefit oil companies and I have no doubt oil companies were involved in the decision to bomb Iran to some degree.

What I mean is Trump and Co probably spoke to oil execs before making the Iran decision to ask if they would raise production. Then they lied and said yes, while knowing they would drag their feet as prices rose.

Trump is a stoog. The folks around him treat him like an idiot. There's no way they weren't involved here. They've been around his entire presidency.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#186

Post by seany » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:50 PM UTC

clarkmoody wrote: post #67

Insider trading laws are for the plebs. Tip off your cousin about an acquisition by a public company? Go to prison. Tip off your cronies about war? Business as usual.

Honestly, insider trading laws should be removed since they manipulate markets. If you know things, make moves that are public, that would price things _more_ accurately.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#187

Post by bobthepanda » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:50 PM UTC

kelvinjps10 wrote: post #63

skinfaxi wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope that everyone responsible for this is enjoying every cent of what they get to pay at the pumps. As if the people responsible actually feel the impact of their choices to that degree.

Maybe at least the people that put them in power (voters). But being honest, it wasn't just voters.

Nonvoters would win the Electoral College if that was a thing.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#188

Post by chneu » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:51 PM UTC

sailfast wrote: post #99

5o3lad wrote: post #95

The corruption is a welcome byproduct of Trump's role as a Reality TV host who has to keep the conflict going and Hormuz closed. The fact that he is talking peace again now is just because he cannot attack before the meeting with Xi in mid May. The real issue is US energy dominance and control of the sea routes. Which Krugman does not mention, because the effort is bipartisan and he probably likes it. The US literall…

I think you’re giving Trump too much credit. If he starts firing shots again the war is illegal. The 60 day window is over. He has no appropriated money to fight the war, no public support, and no way out. There is no chess game here. It’s not even checkers. He is just trying to not have to admit he made a mistake - just with billions of dollars and lives on the line. Such sad.

He will just say it's a different operation. That's what they've been doing and it's working. Republicans have no desire to stop Trump. Democrats don't care either cuz they want this power once they're elected.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#189

Post by bobthepanda » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:51 PM UTC

philipallstar wrote: post #169

david-gpu wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make a good point. At the same time, when he broke his electoral promise to stop foreign interfefence and kidnapped Maduro, his voter base did not turn against him. That seems to have emboldened him to pursue more military actions abroad. Now let's see how long until he invades Cuba, and how his voters will react.

Unlike Venezuela and Iran, Cuba doesn't really fuel China, so I assume it's not such a priority.

I mean, in that case why rattle about Greenland?

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#190

Post by simonh » Thu, May 07, 2026, 2:53 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #73

vkou wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war must continue in order to bring us to the status quo that was in place before we started the war. I hope that everyone responsible for this is enjoying every cent of what they get to pay at the pumps.

[flagged]

Almost all the troops that committed those massacres are still there, and if anything even more ready and willing to do it all over again, and have a leadership ready to give the order.