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'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

theguardian.com

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Re: 'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

#181

Post by estearum »

misiti3780 wrote: post #176
estearum wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is mostly a pedantic point that it's not actuaries doing the pricing, but a different set of risk analysts using a different suite of tools, right?

It's two monte carlo models that get refreshed every few years.

[Edit] The following comment can be read very snarkily but that is not the intention. I'm legitimately interested + curious:

Very interesting! Does it affect the point that insurers (even if not actuaries) put a high price on this risk and that the price is subsequently suppressed by government insurance subsidies?

Re: 'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

#182

Post by quickthrowman »

estearum wrote: post #33
fsckboy wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

This is why the federal subsidies for flood insurance need to end

Agreed, building on a flood plain is incredibly stupid. The city of East Grand Forks demolished all of the buildings in the flood plain portion of town after the 1997 Red River floods and turned it into a park. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Grand_Forks_Greenway

Re: 'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

#183

Post by vintermann »

AuthAuth wrote: post #88
Rebelgecko wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why would someone buy buy a house if they think it's literally going to be underwater soon?

You say this but there are still a lot of sales for houses in these areas

For less and less, presumably? Or is the housing situation so bad that prices rise even when the area will soon be underwater?

It doesn't even matter, really.

Suppose one person follows the sage advice of the HN glibertarians, sells his house and moves out. Good for him. But does this solve the problem? No, because now there's someone else there. Possibly a more desperate, poorer person. They can't all follow your advice, no more than they can all be best in their high school class, run the fastest in the marathon, or being on the winning side of a prediction market bet.

Re: 'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

#184

Post by vintermann »

msla wrote: post #20
bypdx wrote: post #2

Rather than relocate, we can make discussion of climate change illegal or just tax the blue states to build a sea wall around the entire city

There's precedent: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2140747-laws-of-mathema... > “The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,” said Turnbull [the Prime Minster of Australia]

Apropos that, I remember that James Lovelock said basically the same about Australia as this article says about New Orleans: living there is not sustainable, you should all leave.

Re: 'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

#186

Post by wat10000 »

rayiner wrote: post #124
wat10000 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not about being unable to view the issue except from that one perspective. It’s about having an aversion to mass suffering, and recognizing that this group will be subject to it. You’re basically saying, why are you so worried about all of these people who will have their lives destroyed when there are a bunch of other people who will be totally fine? I hope that when it’s put that way, you can see how ridiculou…

No, it's an emotional obsession with small percentages of the population that makes it impossible to discuss realistic solutions to problems that affect everyone. New Orleans is going to be underwater. That problem won't just affect poor people, it will affect everyone. So the first order of business is to encourage anyone who can do so to leave New Orleans to go somewhere that isn't underwater. That's the policy tha…

What is there to discuss? If you have the ability to move away, then you move away, done.

We aren't discussing this particular group because we're a too emotional to think straight. We're discussing this group because it's the one that will bear the brunt of the suffering and it's the one where there isn't an obvious "just let them figure it out and it'll be fine" solution.

Re: 'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

#187

Post by wat10000 »

alex43578 wrote: post #177
wat10000 wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah, I forgot that it’s their own fault that poor people are poor.

If, with 10 years notice , you can’t pull together a deposit, first/last month’s rent, and the $50 for a U-haul to move out of a city that will literally end up underwater, yes - it is your fault.

Thanks for demonstrating the ongoing justification for this username.

Re: 'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

#188

Post by Yizahi »

fsckboy wrote: post #24
madrox wrote: post #10

My roots are in Louisiana, and this makes me incredibly sad. It is such a unique place that has no like, and drives all tourism in the state. Where will tourists celebrate Mardi Gras after it's gone? Baton Rouge? Sadder, still, to know that nothing will be done. No one will be relocated. Just one day a weather event like a hurricane will happen to destroy the area and it will be labeled derelict with no funds to rebu…

[flagged]

What an incredibly out of touch post. This gives off "let them eat cakes" classic. Do you realize how expensive is it to move out of your home? I won't write a laundry list of items here, since you either know all of them already or will dismiss outright with the same attitude. I do want to say is that social darwinism is not something to be proud about.

Re: 'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

#189

Post by snthpy »

CWwdcdk7h wrote: post #172
snthpy wrote: post #147

A bit OT but what about the Netherlands?

No hurricanes there, so I guess they can just slowly rebuild walls to keep up with sea level and increase number of pumps already used to get rid of excess rainwater. Not great but manageable as long they secure enough money.

Aha interesting. Thanks!

Re: 'Point of no return': New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level

#190

Post by bayarearefugee »

foobarian wrote: post #46
californical wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally I agree, and we’ve known this for a long time but people stay in denial. It’s the same thing in Miami. Unfortunately though, the solution isn’t that easy. For one, if you own property there, you’re basically either caught holding a bag with life changing amounts of money lost, or trying to pass it off to another sucker which just feels unethical. For two, families and communities make it hard for people. Ma…

Systemically, the problem is that there needs to be a last person, and yet people leaving expect market value for their homes which normally happens by selling to the next person. The last person can currently only get the money if a disaster strikes and insurance pays out. To do it ahead of schedule, insurance would have to pay out sooner, which means there would have to be some kind of government intervention to ma…

> The last person can currently only get the money if a disaster strikes and insurance pays out.

Usually there is no insurance.

The insurance industry, for all of its other faults, is one of the few left that still deals in reality instead of vibes so they aren't going to give you affordable insurance against floods/hurricanes/etc in these areas with any real coverage.

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