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Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

bbc.com

181–190 of 230 posts

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#181
post #137

This is my own take, directly related to this that I posted a little while back. The one thing that I think the article missed is the geopolitical angle they’re also working: * We need to completely deregulate these US companies so China doesn't win and take us over * We need to heavily regulate anybody who is not following the rules that make us the de-facto winner * This is so powerful it will take all the jobs (an…

>deregulation Peter Thiel literally gave a lecture on the Antichrist* saying basically that regulation is satanic https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/world/europe/peter-thiel-... * He's the best person in the world for this lecture - the only one that can claim first-person knowledge on the subject!

he's a nutjob, I don't know why anyone would listen to what he has to say outside of fear

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#182
post #35

I think the big secret is that AI is just software. In the same way that a financial firm doesn't all of sudden make a bunch of money because Microsoft shipped an update to Excel, AI is inert without intention. If there's any major successes in AI output it's because a person got it to do that. Claude Code is great, but it will also wipe out a database even though it's instructed not to (I can confirm from experience…

My observation is that the true believers really don't want to think of models as an inert pile of weights. There's some mysticism attached to imagining it's the ship's computer from Star Trek, HAL-9000 or C-3PO. A file loaded into memory and executed over is just so... _pedestrian_.

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on your reference class. There's a lot of companies and teams where it's literally 100%, and I would be surprised if there were any top company where it's below 75%. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the industry-wide percentage were a lot lower, although I also have no idea how you'd measure that.

> I would be surprised if there were any top company where it's below 75% I would be surprised if there were any top company where it's above 5%. The slop Claude generates isn't going anywhere near production without being edited by hand.

Perhaps it depends on what you mean by "edited by hand"? It's definitely still common for human beings to review generated code and tell Claude "no you need to do it this way". But most developers at Google, Meta, etc. no longer open up an IDE and type in code themselves.

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#184
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I just don't buy that it would somehow help AI companies for everyone to be existentially afraid of their technology. It seems much more reasonable to think that they really believe the things they're saying, than that it's some kind of 4d chess. Additionally Dario has just been really accurate with his predictions so far. For instance in early 2025 he predicted that nearly 100% of code would be written with AI…

> It seems much more reasonable to think that they really believe the things they're saying It seems more reasonable to me to think that they know it's bullshit and it's just marketing. Not necessarily marketing to end users as much as investors. It's very hard to take "AGI in 3 years" seriously.

AGI in 3 years is literally not possible as it stands. Our current idea of "AI" as an LLM fundamentally will never be able to reach that goal without some absolutely massive changes

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#185
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claude does not have a "theory" of anything, and I'd argue applying that mental model to LLM+Tools is a major reason why Claude can delete a production database.

Well, humans also routinely accidentely delete production databases. I think at this point arguing that LLMs are just clueless automatons that have no idea what they are doing is a losing battle.

I like to think of LLMs as idiot savants. Exceptional at certain tasks, but might also eat the table cloth if you stop paying attention at the wrong time.

With humans, you can kind of interview/select for a more normalized distribution of outcomes, with outliers being less probable, but not impossible.

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#186

AI company leaders didn't invent this concern about the potential dangers of AI, either as a cause of economic disruption, or as a potential extinction risk. Superintelligence was published in 2014, and even then it wasn't a new topic. Technologists, philosophers and science fiction authors have been discussing and speculating about AI risk for decades. Also, the idea that AI leadership seized on and amplified these…

>If you're attempting to market a new product to a mass audience, talking about how dangerous and potentially world-ending it is is the most insane strategy you could choose.

except that isn't the segment of the market they're targeting. They're trying to FOMO businesses into paying them, and the businesses play along in part because they (the businesses) don't care about morals nearly as much as the potential profit (sure, a train that kills everyone on board is bad for the people on board, but just think about how efficient shipping will be) and in part because they're scared that by not doing so they'll end up on the business end of how dangerous these new models supposedly are

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has always been non-deterministic but we relied on low level engineers who knew the dark magicks to keep the horrors at bay. Bit flips in memory are super common. Even CPUs sometimes output the wrong answer for calculations because of random chance. Network errors are common, at scale you'll see data corruption across a LAN often enough that you'll quickly implement application level retries because somehow the ne…

> It has always been non-deterministic but we relied on low level engineers who knew the dark magicks to keep the horrors at bay. This is a disingenuous comparison. First of all, what you're talking about is nondeterminism at the hardware level, subverting the software, which is, on an ideal/theoretical computer, fully deterministic (except in ways that we specifically tell it not to be, through the use of PRNGs or r…

> First of all, what you're talking about is nondeterminism at the hardware level, subverting the software, which is, on an ideal/theoretical computer, fully deterministic (except in ways that we specifically tell it not to be, through the use of PRNGs or real entropy sources).

Malloc and free were never deterministic outside of the simplest systems.

The second we accepted OS preemption we gave up deterministic performance.

Good teams freeze their build tools at a specific version because even minor revs of compilers can change behavior.

I've used way too many schema generator tools that I'd describe as "wishfully deterministic".

Heuristics have been used for years in computer science, resulting in surprising behavior. My point is that if we ramp up the rate of WTF we are willing to tolerate, the power of the systems we can build increases drastically.

> Second of all, the frequency with which traditional programs are nondeterministic in this manner is multiple orders of magnitude less than the frequency of nondeterminism in LLMs. (Frankly, I'd put that latter number at 1.)

Building a RAG lookup system that takes in questions from the user, looks up answers in a doc, and returns results, can be built with reliability damn near approaching 99.99%.

I have seen code generation harnesses that also dramatically reduce non-determinism of LLM generated code, but that will continue to be a hard problem.

My phone camera applies non-deterministic optimizations to images I take, and has done so for years now.

GPS is non-deterministic (noisy), we smooth over the issues. GPS routing is also iffy, but again we smooth over the issues.

The question is can useful products be made with a technology. You can shove enough guardrails on an LLM interface to make it useful. That much is clear. I derive massive value from LLMs and other transformer based systems literally everyday. From the modern speech transcription systems, that are damn near magic compare to what we had a few years back, to image recognition, to natural language interfaces to search over company documents.

If we completely discard coding agents, LLMs are still an insanely impactful technology.

Those guardrails add costs, and latency. For some scenarios that is fine, but for others it isn't. Chat bot support agents implemented by the lowest bidder don't have any attempt at guardrails. Better systems are better built.

I agree that current LLMs all suffer from the problem that the control messages are intermixed with data, that is a crappy problem that the industry has known is a bad pattern for literally decades (since the 70s, 80s?). It seems like an intractable flaw in the systems.

But that doesn't make the system unusable any more than the thousand other protocols suffering from the same flaw are unusable.

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#188
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claude does not have a "theory" of anything, and I'd argue applying that mental model to LLM+Tools is a major reason why Claude can delete a production database.

Well, humans also routinely accidentely delete production databases. I think at this point arguing that LLMs are just clueless automatons that have no idea what they are doing is a losing battle.

When you're applying reasoning like this, sure, why not? What difference would it make?

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLM models are a distribution. Unlike a python script or turning machine, a LLM model is capable of generating any series of tokens. Developers need stop reasoning about LLM agents as deterministic and to start to think about agents in terms of Monte Carlo and Las Vegas algorithms. It isn't enough to have an agents, it also requires a cheap verifier. If I was a Ph.D. student today, I'd probably do a thesis on cheap v…

If you told a programmer 30 years ago that someday we'd switch from a deterministic to nondeterministic paradigm for programming computers, they'd ask if we'd put lead back in the drinking water.

Right? I get a kick out of programming used to being:

put this exact value inside this exact register at the right concurrent time and all the tedious exactness that C required

into now:

"pretty please can you not do that and fix the bug somewhere a different way"

Re: Why AI companies want you to be afraid of them

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All due respect, that's the biggest crock I've ever heard in my life.

I understand where you're coming from. I can imagine myself reacting similarly if HP announced that they've invented a printer so powerful that it can print documents you don't have access to. But I don't know how to engage with this response, other than to say that Anthropic's story is plausible to me and everyone I know in either AI or security.

I work in security, and I think it's marketing BS meant to drive FOMO until proven otherwise.

You cannot take any claims from these people seriously, they lie constantly.

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