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ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

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Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#181

Post by [deleted] »

theptip wrote: post #176
rgalate wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best explanation as to why ASML is so dominant is that they have locked out the best suppliers by signing exclusivity deals with them. If you want to compete with ASML you have to vertically build: the best lenses, the best lasers, the best metrology. A new entrant would need to replace ten different world-class vendors simultaneously. Unlike common business wisdom that dictates having multiple suppliers to mitig…

It does seem like the USG should fund a few $10B to build out the alternative stack, given the strategic sensitivity. Best time to have started would have been 20y ago, second best is today. This is small change in the military budget.

[deleted]

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#182

Post by locallost »

CGMthrowaway wrote: post #164
EtienneK wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Carl Zeiss only has a €2.2B market cap. What stops someone from just buying all these world class vendors?

Carl Zeiss Meditec /= Carl Zeiss. $AFX is the publicly traded non-semis division. Carl Zeiss AG is the parent company which is private

Correct. Funny enough though, their corporate structure and the name AG means they do have stocks, but they are not traded and 100% privately owned. For some reason I see this often with German companies, e.g. the German railway. Not sure why that is, although for the railway plausible since they are owned by the state that might eventually want to sell parts of it.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#183

Post by whilenot-dev »

andsoitis wrote: post #168
ghc wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would a machine need to make anything? Is a robot arm not a machine? How about a trash compactor? Are the 6 types of simple machines not machines?

A machine is a device that uses energy to perform work. Typically by applying or transforming force, motion, or both. The space shuttle can be thought of maybe as a collection of machines working in concert, but thinking of it as ONE machines renders the meaning of machine less useful.

In my understanding a device has its origin in giving advice and does something specific for you (a pen is a writing device, a mixer is a cooking device, a phone is a communication device, a bus is a transportation device etc.).

A machine on the other hand has its roots in its mechanisms. It physically transforms something by applying mechanical power, and that's not necessarily done for you (e.g. printing device VS printing machine).

Whether a device can be composed out of many smaller devices, or whether a machine can be composed out of many smaller machines just doesn't seem to be relevant. That being said, language evolves with time and certain concepts find some overlap in general usage.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#184

Post by ghc »

IAmBroom wrote: post #142
ghc wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's not forget the really big gamble (inventing EUV) was made in the 1990s by US national labs: Sandia, Lawrence Livermore, and Lawrence Berkeley.

Inventing EUV lasers .

Optics and photoresist materials too. The partnership developed the first EUV lithography in 2001: https://www.llnl.gov/article/27641/euvl-partnership-makes-it...

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#185

Post by nqzero »

robotresearcher wrote: post #132
kens wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That claim is from NASA: https://www3.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/pdf/566250main_SHUTTLE...

I see that. And I see it repeated all over. Still skeptical. Googling for total part count also comes up with the 2.5M number. They move WRT Earth, but the vast majority do not move with respect to each other, is my guess. For a sanity check comparison: Saturn V estimates are ~5 million total parts, and "tens of thousands" of moving parts. A ratio that sounds sort of normal.

everything can be a moving part if you use enough hydrogen and oxygen

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#186

Post by Therenas »

SR2Z wrote: post #170
Therenas wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I‘d probably call it the most complex commercially available machine. You can‘t buy a Space Shuttle, or an LHC. You can buy a TSMC lithography machine, and it‘ll be delivered to you in much the same way as other equipment. Also, I think the axis it‘s probably most complex on is precision of individual parts and of their combination. Arguably chips themselves are more precise as their 'parts' are so small, but they ar…

> You can buy a TSMC lithography machine, and it‘ll be delivered to you in much the same way as other equipment. Each one of these machines costs half a billion dollars and is protected by some of the most stringent export controls on the planet. It does raise an interesting philosophical question: if I bolt two ASML lithography machines together, is the resulting machine more complicated?

Right but it still gets put into boxes and flown over by a 747. Of course it‘s more complicated than that, but most contenders for complex machines are much more built in-place, and not a complete 'product' being assembled.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#187

Post by mandevil »

theptip wrote: post #176
rgalate wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best explanation as to why ASML is so dominant is that they have locked out the best suppliers by signing exclusivity deals with them. If you want to compete with ASML you have to vertically build: the best lenses, the best lasers, the best metrology. A new entrant would need to replace ten different world-class vendors simultaneously. Unlike common business wisdom that dictates having multiple suppliers to mitig…

It does seem like the USG should fund a few $10B to build out the alternative stack, given the strategic sensitivity. Best time to have started would have been 20y ago, second best is today. This is small change in the military budget.

The US Government made ASML dominant when it allowed it to acquire (US Company) Cymer, Inc.- the company that was best in the world at the time at EUV. Merging Cymer's EUV work with ASML's meticulous perfection and delivery of the entire rest of the system is what made them the only vendor that matters for semiconductor manufacturers.

This acquisition is also what gives the US Government the ability to veto customers of ASML even today- this is why Chinese semiconductor manufacturing is so far behind, because the USG controls who can access ASML's EUV work.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#188

Post by AlotOfReading »

joe_the_user wrote: post #161
quanto wrote: post #133

I have an interesting discussion with a senior colleague: why ASML? why are they by far the best? Their competitors are a few generations behind. The colleague claimed that there is no special magic. It's not that ASML is using some otherwise unknown laws of physics nor is any single step or component particularly special or novel. It's just that they meticulously optimized each step, and the sum of such steps is the…

Technology can explain why ASML or other companies are dominant at a given moment but it can't explain how it became dominant. Essentially, technological superiority involves research and that requires money. IE, it is a product of investment in the various technologies. The history of ASML involves a "failed" company that other multinationals felt they had to keep alive to allow the technologies to continue. And tha…

ASML is in Europe because Philips/NXP is in Europe. The fundamental research EUV is based on was done in the US, then made available to industry via a holding company called EUV, LLC. Intel tried to bring in Canon and Nikon, but was rejected by the US government. Two others were approved, ASML and an American company called SVG. ASML spent a couple decades doing the incredibly hard work of productizing EUV and acquired SVG along the way. Canon and Nikon tried playing catch-up with an Asian consortium, but arrived late to the party.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#190

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

GuB-42 wrote: post #150
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard that US nuclear subs actually take the crown, but the design is so secret, that there's no way to verify.

I doubt that anything in the military is that advanced or complex, including nuclear subs. A big part of it is the secrecy itself. Things get difficult when you can't communicate. Your pool of candidates for the job is limited: you may not want people with foreign connections, some people don't want to work for the military, don't like the paperwork, don't like the idea that they can't value their skills for another…

> In addition, military technology is supposed to work on the battlefield, you don't want delicate stuff there, you want rugged, repairable, proven, reliable.

I used to work for a military contractor.

The stuff we would get back from the field looked like it had been fed through a wood-chipper, and this was peacetime (1980s). They had these special field racks, that had a rackmount suspended inside a huge plastic box (with front and back panels). Didn't save the units inside, though. A lot of time, they were torn off the racks, and rattling around, inside the container.

The kit was not cheap. Our standard units (a super Bearcat Scanner, basically) cost about $40,000 USD (1980s USD). They were 2-4U units, and the racks usually had five or six of them.

There's an urban legend about Admiral Rickover. His office was on the second floor of the Pentagon. If a salesgoblin came in, with sample kit, it was said that he walked over to his window, and dropped it outside. He then said "If it still works, we'll talk."

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