Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 263 posts

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#181

Post by stubish »

beaviskhan wrote: post #9

You'd have to be spectacularly stupid to bet on these kinds of things without having insider knowledge, because you ought to know good and damn well by now that the people with insider knowledge are DEFINITELY betting on them.

A bet against an event is win/win if you want that event to occur. If you are a country that wanted the US to strike Iran, placing a large number of bets that they won't either gets you what you want or earns you money. It is one reason why you can't bet on someone being murdered, as it creates a deniable market to crowd source assassination. Strange that you can crowd source war, but not assassination.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#182

Post by austhrow743 »

airstrike wrote: post #123
slg wrote: post #100

Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets. But I just don't see a way those benefits outweigh the societal dangers of these constant reminders that people in or close to power can freely profit from their positions in the ways the rest of the population can't. There's always talk about the dangers of disincentivizing job creators, but what happens when a society routinely disincentives job havers i…

> Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets Go on, I'll wait for those "merits"

More accurate information about the world allows for more effective decision making.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#183

Post by stubish »

SJMG wrote: post #145
colechristensen wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the bigger risk is changing major decisions (like war) based on the profitability of bets. Forget about drone war doctrine, if you're an adversary just place absurdly large bets which incentivize the opposition to do what you want. (i.e. bet so you "lose" the bet when the enemy changes their posture to gain the profit). Politics is already full of these pay to play incentives but now anyone with enough cash c…

This kind of nation-level hedging has been talked about for years in betting market-aware communities. It's honestly a much better use than fleecing nobodies with insider knowledge.

We should be more worried about who placed the losing bets then. Russia, Israel and China having a market for government and military officials to accept their bribes is kind of a bigger story than insiders fleecing gamblers.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#184

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Supermancho wrote: post #142
anonymars wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This interpretation is incredibly unlikely. The first and third paragraphs discuss legality, but the middle one was merely talking about likelihood of prosecution? Even then it would be inaccurate: the regulators are not too stupid to put two and two together that you work for a company and got incredibly lucky with your trade

To be clear, I was responding about trading on internal communications, not specifically a raid. The practice of using internal communication to guide trading runs contrary to most company policies. I happen to have worked at a company where this kind of practice was both acknowledged and openly discussed. It was a strange place. > the regulators are not too stupid to put two and two together that you work for a comp…

> If someone is routinely making $20k–$30k transactions, that alone is unlikely to trigger scrutiny

If they never make money, you’re fine. If they make a lot of money, it will get flagged ex post facto. Regulators then check if you or your family have any affiliations with the issuer; if they do, it’s flagged further. All of this typically happens automatically after companies’ stock prices move significantly.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#185

Post by Bud »

ck2 wrote: post #5

What's the statute of limitations on such things? Because it won't be prosecuted by 2029 but could be afterwards Personally I think it's a bigger problem when the President sues his own government for billions and then orders them to pay it out Because -that- is not an official act. It could be prosecuted but no-one will touch it even after 2029

[dead]

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#187

Post by nojito »

jaredklewis wrote: post #134
slg wrote: post #100

Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets. But I just don't see a way those benefits outweigh the societal dangers of these constant reminders that people in or close to power can freely profit from their positions in the ways the rest of the population can't. There's always talk about the dangers of disincentivizing job creators, but what happens when a society routinely disincentives job havers i…

The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed. Though it’s not that different from the stock market, where the folks at WSB happily give their money to Citadel, Jane Street, and friends, because every once a while, one of them hits it big after going all in that the ball lands on green. Gambling is a hell of a…

>Why would any non-insider participate in these markets?

Because they are grossly mis-priced for anyone mildly informed.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#188

Post by Terr_ »

outlore wrote: post #66

There’s a recent Patrick Boyle video which puts it aptly: prediction markets are a wealth transfer from retail investors to trading algorithms and people with security clearances. Anyway, one thing I don’t understand yet is how new markets are created. They aren’t user generated, so how did an “Iran strike” market exist to begin with?

Also: Nascent exchanges for paying someone to commit violent or illegal acts.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#189

Post by direwolf20 »

jaredklewis wrote: post #134
slg wrote: post #100

Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets. But I just don't see a way those benefits outweigh the societal dangers of these constant reminders that people in or close to power can freely profit from their positions in the ways the rest of the population can't. There's always talk about the dangers of disincentivizing job creators, but what happens when a society routinely disincentives job havers i…

The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed. Though it’s not that different from the stock market, where the folks at WSB happily give their money to Citadel, Jane Street, and friends, because every once a while, one of them hits it big after going all in that the ball lands on green. Gambling is a hell of a…

> Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed.

If people who do the obvious trades (sell oil right now - it's going down) lose money, all you have to do is do the opposite (buy oil right now - it's going down) and gain money. Is it not that simple? You will profit along with the insiders when Trump blockades the strait again, although you won't have such perfect timing.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#190

Post by direwolf20 »

nojito wrote: post #187
jaredklewis wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed. Though it’s not that different from the stock market, where the folks at WSB happily give their money to Citadel, Jane Street, and friends, because every once a while, one of them hits it big after going all in that the ball lands on green. Gambling is a hell of a…

>Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? Because they are grossly mis-priced for anyone mildly informed.

Did you get rich off these markets? If not, how can you say it's true?
Post reply on HN