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The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

economist.com

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Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#181

Post by shimman »

thesmtsolver2 wrote: post #108
shimman wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had a tech industry prior to H1Bs before the 90s. What we didn't have was Silicon Valley corporatism that doesn't value American labor nor American education. It's why SV is so gun-ho on charter schools and devaluing American labor. Let's not act like we need to import 80k "high tech" workers that amount to writing react components and spring endpoints. Hardly anything hard that we couldn't force companies to trai…

Do you share the same thoughts for blue collar immigrants?

No, because blue collar immigrants aren't working for cartels that hold deeply undemocratic views.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#182

Post by munksbeer »

intended wrote: post #170
newfriend wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The mere presence of H1-B workers depresses wages systemically.

I think they are making a meta argument? That H1B labour allowed other firms to build tech, which kept those firms competitive, creating a deeper economy and experienced bench. That depth then enabled more advanced tech firms to be born. At least thats what I think they are saying. The analogy would be that China took over low tech manufacturing, and then because of that were able to develop expertise to move up the…

> If you have more workers, it should result in competition that drives down wages. (ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL)

Sort of a meaningless statement when all things are definitely not equal.

If there are 5 million people in a country, or 200 million, the theory of too many workers means the 5 million people country should be paying everyone vastly more.

But that is trivially untrue.

Economies grow and shrink and adapt around the number people.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#183

Post by munksbeer »

shimman wrote: post #181
thesmtsolver2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you share the same thoughts for blue collar immigrants?

No, because blue collar immigrants aren't working for cartels that hold deeply undemocratic views.

It is interesting to see the different views on immigration. Here in the UK, leading up to the brexit vote, everyone said blue collar workers were the problem, because they depressed wages for the poor and made the middle class richer because they could build cheaper houses, pick cheaper crops, etc.

In Singapore, the rage is mostly against higher earner immigrants, because they take all the good jobs, making the middle class in Singapore poorer.

I'm sensing a bit of a mix in your US centric argument.

All in all, a lot of people just hate immigration, always have, always will. It is a topic as old as time.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#184

Post by franktankbank »

intended wrote: post #171
Longlius wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then offshore the work. Americans aren't getting the jobs anyway and the imported labor now competes for things like groceries, gas, housing, etc. which drives up prices.

Look, I can make a solid economic argument against offshoring and how certain business practices hollow out local economies. However immigrants are a net increase in investment and GDP. Yes - terms and conditions apply (its economics, when do they not) Immigrants have to pay rent, buy clothes and groceries from wherever they live. This creates demand which depends the consumption economy. These are positive growth le…

> These are positive growth levers.

These are pointless growth levers.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#185

Post by Aurornis »

throwaway1492 wrote: post #83
Aurornis wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's that simple. The 2021 over-hiring was a weird time where hiring as many people as possible became a goal in itself. There were companies growing organizations faster than they could be made productive. They acquired a lot of bureaucracy, excess structure, and inefficiency. The current backlash is trying to reverse the excess structure and middle management buildout so they can get back to more func…

Glad I was over working three full time jobs (remote w2) during that period. I stacked A LOT of cash during that those years that has appreciated nicely.

People like you are why several companies I know of have stopped hiring remote: Too many people trying the overemployed schtick and and making remote employees synonymous with people who are constantly distracted and divided.

Thanks a lot for ruining it for all of us.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#186

Post by Aurornis »

throwaway1492 wrote: post #175
Ifkaluva wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does this show up in background checks? Genuinely curious

It doesn’t, I have one of these jobs on my resume and I simply don’t mention the others. Who would know if I don’t tell them? The IRS knows I had 3 w2s but they don’t know the dates of employment. It does so happen all three companies used the same large payroll management provider, so that company knows, but it would be pretty bad to share customer data wouldn’t it?

Hiring manager here. There are actually new tools from the background check and payroll providers to detect some of these past situations.

> It does so happen all three companies used the same large payroll management provider, so that company knows, but it would be pretty bad to share customer data wouldn’t it?

You may be in for a surprise.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#187

Post by joquarky »

abenga wrote: post #173
yabutlivnWoods wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh this game, huh? If your powers of analysis were worth anything you would be running the world not copy-pasting hype straight from CNBC and Big Tech PR As you are not running the world your analysis is worthless. As such I say; good day, sir.

Why is it important that Google (or any of these large companies) only hire Americans for their jobs in the first place? They are global companies now, they make money from everywhere. Why is the insular "Americans only" idea worthy of consideration at all?

By this logic, Google should relocate to some abstract "global" location.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#188

Post by ethanwillis »

lateforwork wrote: post #165
newfriend wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you trying to argue that increased supply of labor is responsible for increasing wages? As others have said, H1-B has been good for companies, and bad for American workers. The same companies who were found to be colluding to keep wages down. Europe is stagnant because of regulation, not because of immigration.

> Are you trying to argue that increased supply of labor is responsible for increasing wages? I am saying the reason silicon valley exists is because of the immigration of the smartest people from around the world. High Tech needs the best in the world, not the best in the US. Consider the seminal research paper that kicked off the AI revolution (titled "Attention is all you need"). It was written by 2 Indians, 1 Ger…

Why not "2 Indian born people, 1 German born person, 1 Canadian born person, 1 Polish born person, 1 Ukrainian born person, and 2 US born people?"

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#189

Post by intended »

franktankbank wrote: post #184
intended wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I can make a solid economic argument against offshoring and how certain business practices hollow out local economies. However immigrants are a net increase in investment and GDP. Yes - terms and conditions apply (its economics, when do they not) Immigrants have to pay rent, buy clothes and groceries from wherever they live. This creates demand which depends the consumption economy. These are positive growth le…

> These are positive growth levers. These are pointless growth levers.

O_o? what are positive growth levers accord to you?

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#190

Post by intended »

munksbeer wrote: post #182
intended wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they are making a meta argument? That H1B labour allowed other firms to build tech, which kept those firms competitive, creating a deeper economy and experienced bench. That depth then enabled more advanced tech firms to be born. At least thats what I think they are saying. The analogy would be that China took over low tech manufacturing, and then because of that were able to develop expertise to move up the…

> If you have more workers, it should result in competition that drives down wages. (ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL) Sort of a meaningless statement when all things are definitely not equal. If there are 5 million people in a country, or 200 million, the theory of too many workers means the 5 million people country should be paying everyone vastly more. But that is trivially untrue. Economies grow and shrink and adapt around…

> ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL

> Sort of a meaningless statement when all things are definitely not equal.

Hey, don’t look to me for a defense of the weaknesses of economic models.

At the same time you can’t really discuss complex systems like economies where one part affects another, without holding some of the factors in stasis.

Centris paribus does extreme amounts of heavy lifting.

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