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Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

blog.danieldavies.com

181–190 of 228 posts

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#181
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My insurance went down not up when I switched. EV servicing is cheaper and I do it less often. I bought used. The monthly depreciation is less than my previous fuel bill. YMMV.

> EV servicing is cheaper and I do it less often. Most EVs need serviced every year and it's about £300 to do so. This is a ridiculous amount.

What do you need to get serviced every year? Do the tires wear out that fast?

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#182

Interesting that this quote was initially about stock options at tech companies. It turned out that stock options did become nearly universal in tech compensation, and companies that granted them outcompeted companies that did not. So the management that was ostensibly “doing a massive blag at the expense of shareholders” wasn’t really, time vindicated their practices and things like option backdating and not treatin…

> Interesting that this quote was initially about stock options at tech companies. It turned out that stock options did become nearly universal in tech compensation, and companies that granted them outcompeted companies that did not. So the management that was ostensibly “doing a massive blag at the expense of shareholders” wasn’t really, time vindicated their practices and things like option backdating and not treat…

>...The reason why Buffet complains about them is that A) it makes harder to discern from financial statements how much staff is costing the shareholders, not that its a competitive advangage or disadvantage, and B) if theres a cost that you need to pay in order to run the business, thats called an expense,

Yes, that is true - that is what Warren Buffet says are his reasons. It might also be true that the actual reasons might have more to do with the fact that he didn't like the idea of having to potentially dilute his 100+ billion dollar wealth in shares of Berkshire or that he didn't like having to increase employee compensation to compete for workers since he refused to give out options.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#183

The flip side is that good ideas with honest framing often lose to bad ideas with better marketing. Being right isn't enough if you can't communicate it and most people don't have the patience to evaluate the honest version.

The point the post is making not that good ideas win or lose, its that if you need to lie (that's not better marketing) to persuade your idea probably isn't good and your predictions about the outcomes are false. The context is deceit about the second Iraq war. I think the reason why this post is returning is because we are in the middle of a war where the goals and justifications are being misrepresented and yet people accept predictions about the outcome. "The straight will open itself." ?

Right or wrong, an interesting (and ironic) historical analogy.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#184
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes them more or less controllable? I know they can have specific triggers applied to them so as to delay vesting. Are options somehow immune to that or is it something else entirely?

Note that I’m speaking more about private companies than public ones. But an RSU is basically only liquid if the company says it is. Shares, out of exercised options, have a lot more flexibility.

Right, but that seems to be comparing unvested RSUs to vested and exercised options. Are options more strict about what games can be played with vesting triggers?

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#185
post #121
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Computer says no", look it up. Cars measure success by not hitting things. Cops measure success by number of people they arrest. Note, not the number of people found guilty, that's the prosecutor. Cops will gladly use a hallucinating computer system to beat the absolute fuck out of you with qualified immunity.

> Cops measure success by number of people they arrest. Simply not true. Police KPIs tend to focus on crime rates. Regardless, they can mistreat you with or without AI backing.

The elected officials like chiefs get judged on crime rates. Individual officers are on arrests and tickets (regardless of rules against quotas)

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#186
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah I think the advice generally is "ignore options."

People who sell lottery tickets, on average, do better than those who buy them. The same applies to stock options. Which is why "bonus" options are fine, but "buying" them by taking ESOP over potential salary, can be a bad choice.

I think it depends on the ESOP, the companies i've worked at ESOP happened at 10-15% discount of the real price at the buy time and those stocks are instantly sellable. They can be taxed differently yeah but depending on how much you are buying and sell its capital gains tax which can be lower than income tax.

Edit: I am conflating RSUs and stock options never worked somewhere without RSUs so there might be a gap in my experience

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No you don’t. If you did, you would be subject to lock outs. The average rank and file employee at any BigTech company knows only a minuscule more than the general public. Amazon for instance has over 1 million employees. You know nothing about most of your coworkers or whether other teams are delivering featured

> The average rank and file employee at any BigTech company knows only a minuscule more than the general public. They know the clients, the contracts, hiring, cost cutting way before the general public does. The problem is that many BigTech is sum of many units which might not be correlated, but for say Nvidia or Apple I would assume the employees would be a good people to take the stock advice from.

> but for say Nvidia or Apple I would assume the employees would be a good people to take the stock advice from

Isn't Apple pretty famously secretive even internally around stuff like product launches? I would expect a company that runs a tight ship to have rank-and-file employees who would have less potentially actionable info than ones at companies that don't control information as well.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#189
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you just reinforced the articles point. Coal power needs lots of lies to justify it, as per your own statement. That is in fact because coal energy is a terrible idea . It has 0 upsides compared to renewable alternatives, and is on the whole worse than even other non-renewable alternatives. If you have to lie to make it sound good, that's probably because it isn't actually good

You can turn it around. If stopping using coal is a good idea then all that should be needed it present the facts and all the people will cheer and support stop using coal - if not it means stopping using coal is a bad idea?

No, turning it around doesn't work because it's cause and effect.

"Present the facts and all the people will cheer and support stop using coal" -> correct

"If not it means stopping using coal is a bad idea?" -> incorrect, because people are against switching to renewables because of lies, not because of facts

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