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A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

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Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#181

Post by JumpCrisscross »

lxgr wrote: post #76
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules I’m genuinely confused how a passive investor winds up tracking the NASDAQ 100 versus a broader index. Also, if you’re picking and choosing your exposures, you aren’t passive.

That sounds like a "no true scotsman" argument. Even passive investors need to pick some methodology of how to pick assets and how to relatively weigh them, and while you can make that as mathematically simple as possible, it's arguably an active decision. Or would you say that e.g. an ETF tracking MSCI ex-US is not a passive fund?

> would you say that e.g. an ETF tracking MSCI ex-US is not a passive fund?

Assets aren’t passive or not; investing styles are. The degree to which one’s returns earn from, or are expected to earn from, selection effects determines if you’re investing passively or actively. If I say trade SPYs, I’m an active investor. If I buy and hold a custom broad-market benchmark, I’m passive. Buying MSCI ex-US without a hedge is an active investment decision. If it’s bought and held it’s more like a passive strategy over time, provided the U.S. doesn’t dramatically over or underperform the global markets.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#182

Post by dh2022 »

stouset wrote: post #100
germinalphrase wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“potentially makes humans inter-planetary” What is the realistic, non-science fiction appeal of this?

I would wager minerals mining and tourism are probably the only meaningful revenue sources in our lifetimes.

Tourism to Mars and back (this is the easiest interplanetary travel) means years confined in a space rocket just to circle around Mars and get back (it is not possible to land on Mars and get back). Not that appealing…

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#183

Post by dh2022 »

NoLinkToMe wrote: post #179
jgbuddy wrote: post #19

Were people overpaying 30% for tesla in 2010?

A few facts: 1. Tesla was priced at $2.5b end of 2010. 2. Tesla started production that year of the model S, with nearly 500km range and 0-100 in 4.4 seconds, still competitive 16 years later. It was an obvious disruption of a proven market. 3. that car market was valued at half a trillion at the time. So Tesla being valued at 0.5% of the market, with disruptive technology, seems fine. Of course it was a moonshot, bu…

Humanoid robots and lots of memes (this post has only 50% sarcastic content)

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#184

Post by gigatexal »

Nevermark wrote: post #173
gigatexal wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you get lost and start writing a poem? What’s all this about the “sea”? Fine. Let me turn down my anti-Elon-ness for a bit and caveat that the timing of these changes coinciding with this listing is suspicious, no? Grant me that at least. And then we can, with new found common ground, investigate the motives behind such a change.

Nap achieved. > Grant me that at least Granted, indeed, and with the summarily bestowed honor of our royal favor. Yes. The changes for Elon are exactly what they look like. Preferred treatment in exchange for the priveledge of being paid vast sums to serve him. My sober point is that this is absolute par for the course. Every whale gets this treatment. Elon can take his business somewhere else, and expects something…

because it's the way things are done doesn't mean it's right ... but it's not like money or capital has ever been moral. I see the point.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#185

Post by scottyah »

arein3 wrote: post #145
scottyah wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and it makes much less sense to me. It boils down to he's rich on paper, and doesn't put on a fake PR mask.

Once you see it, it's preety funny how these people pick weird little hills to die on.

Society seems a lot more full of people trying to broadcast who they are from their opinions on stuff instead of what they've done.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#186

Post by scottyah »

mikkupikku wrote: post #135
scottyah wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't spend any time comparing models to the point where you don't know about benchmarks, why do you care where people think the line for SOTA is?

The benchmark game is wholly gamed, but the proof is in the pudding. I know people using Anthropic, OpenAI, and Gemini. Chinese models locally. But who uses Grok for anything but porn? Whatever the benchmarks might say, Grok is just trash in practice. They spent too much time teaching it to be edgy and not enough time teaching it to code.

Ok, sounds like you're already mentally set

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#187

Post by underlipton »

tripletao wrote: post #162
jaredklewis wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Geez this comment is a melodramatic non sequitur. There's no rule you have to own QQQ and indeed most people don't. There are thousands of low cost ETFs that provide passive exposure to the market. If this new rule bothers you, be like most people and buy one of those instead of QQQ. Problem solved. Like sure, let's improve our tax systems (as an aside, I would say there are many more efficient and progressive option…

If you already own highly appreciated QQQ in a taxable account then your options are limited, since moving to a different ETF would realize the capital gain. It may be preferable to hold even if you think you're losing money buying SpaceX at an inflated price, if selling would lose even more in taxes. If you own an ETF that buys SpaceX but without overweighting vs. float, then you're not contributing to the inflated…

We'll happily take the exit tax.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#188

Post by guzfip »

dh2022 wrote: post #182
stouset wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wager minerals mining and tourism are probably the only meaningful revenue sources in our lifetimes.

Tourism to Mars and back (this is the easiest interplanetary travel) means years confined in a space rocket just to circle around Mars and get back (it is not possible to land on Mars and get back). Not that appealing…

Don’t worry man, the LLM’s will invent FTL travel before 2030. Trust me.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#189

Post by mikkupikku »

scottyah wrote: post #186
mikkupikku wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The benchmark game is wholly gamed, but the proof is in the pudding. I know people using Anthropic, OpenAI, and Gemini. Chinese models locally. But who uses Grok for anything but porn? Whatever the benchmarks might say, Grok is just trash in practice. They spent too much time teaching it to be edgy and not enough time teaching it to code.

Ok, sounds like you're already mentally set

Sounds like you've got nothing to say for Grok besides meaningless benchmarks.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#190

Post by stouset »

dh2022 wrote: post #182
stouset wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wager minerals mining and tourism are probably the only meaningful revenue sources in our lifetimes.

Tourism to Mars and back (this is the easiest interplanetary travel) means years confined in a space rocket just to circle around Mars and get back (it is not possible to land on Mars and get back). Not that appealing…

I know the GP mentioned making humans interplanetary, but I mostly just interpreted this as “more spacefaring”. By tourism I really just meant something along the lines of orbiting hotels.
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