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Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

theguardian.com

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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#181

Post by lovich »

maxerickson wrote: post #150
lovich wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah good. The NBA/NFL/MLB/etc should let players bet on whether they win or lose. Letting those with the influence on events being able to make money on them has never degraded a system before. Someone must have just mistakenly put in regulations against insider trading before, for no good reason. Luckily this isn’t anything like the normal tech play of figuring out a loophole or flat out ignoring the law and hoping y…

If athletes didn't face consequences for manipulating betting markets, I think you'd see people become less and less likely to bet on sports outcomes. People naturally don't like a rigged game, you don't have to tell them not to play it. With these betting markets, do you think it's critical that they exist, but with bans on insider bets? Because I'm not sure anyone you are moralizing at is taking up the argument tha…

> With these betting markets, do you think it's critical that they exist, but with bans on insider bets?

No, I don’t think they should exist at all.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#182

Post by input_sh »

bethekidyouwant wrote: post #148
input_sh wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Betting on a ceasefire isn't the interesting part, placing a five digit bet on a ceasefire by March 31st using brand-new accounts is. Do you have any other plausible explanation for this behaviour? I can't think of any, if it's just like your average WallStreetBets gambler, why would they be making these bets from brand-new accounts?

Conspiracy theories are once again gossip for men. Interestingly, you can put your money where your mouth is in this case open your own account and make your own bets since you seem convinced. might as well cash in. Which gives me an idea … if only I had enough cash sitting around…

I'd rather set my money on fire than gamble, thank you very much.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#183

Post by Gud »

gos9 wrote: post #159
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

You think polymarket is where this game is being played? For a couple hundred thousand dollars? Since when do profoundly stupid people use this site?

You live in a fantasy world if you believe the Trumps leave a penny on the table.

They are burning your country to the ground while enriching themselves.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#184

Post by bjackman »

lucaspm98 wrote: post #133
bjackman wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Breakdown of the presented points: > Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire. Is that anomalous? Are these numbers large in context? > They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March. Yes that is indeed how prediction markets work for unlikely events? > An account that made the same bet was created shortly befor…

Publications must love they can now pump out an article every time someone creates a new account to place a large wager on a prediction market. Having been a semi-pro sports bettor for a short stint as it went through legalization in the U.S., I’ve personally had tens of thousands wagered on sports teams I’ve never heard of before. Over the course of thousands of bets it becomes statistically inevitable that you have…

Exactly. I suspect part of the issue here is that people without some exposure to this type of probabilistic thinking are SO BAD at reasoning about market actors and uncertainty.

"A ceasefire looks very unlikely, why they hell would anyone bet on that? That's very suspicious" is obviously a completely fucking idiotic statement to you and me ("why would you buy this ugly empty lot in Manhattan? There's no buildings on it!"). Maybe to a 25 year old Guardian journo with a history degree from Oxbridge it's just common sense.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#185

Post by thrance »

gos9 wrote: post #159
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

You think polymarket is where this game is being played? For a couple hundred thousand dollars? Since when do profoundly stupid people use this site?

> Since when do profoundly stupid people use this site?

Profoundly stupid people are the target demographics.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#186

Post by thrance »

roadside_picnic wrote: post #136
netsharc wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the problem that they can't end the war unilaterally? The Iranian regime is justifiably pissed off and is still flinging drones and rockets towards any viable target, and any ceasefire will be with acceptance of their terms. The Trump/Netanyahu collection of dumb ego won't be able to accept being dictated terms. So like in Game of Thrones, we hope a Jamie Lannister shows up...

This was my thought as well. Trump today claims he had long discussions with Iranian leadership over the weekend and Iran claims such a thing never happened. Not only is Iran justifiably angry at its attackers, they have no reason to trust a ceasefire would be respected, and, furthermore, despite damage taken, stand to gain quite a lot if the war progresses as it has. Currently Iran is exporting more oil than ever be…

In the enlightened POTUS' own words (yes, he wrote in all caps):

> I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1162782323629...

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#187

Post by mikkupikku »

srean wrote: post #152
jmyeet wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think is a worse disaster than Vietnam. Why? Because the Vietnam War was localized. It was devastating to the people who got drafted and obviously devastating to the Vietnamese as well as the Cambodians that Nixon and Kissinger decidedly to relentless bomb for literally no reason. There was internal dissent but that was, saldy, quashed quite successfully. The US simply doesn't have the military capability to invade…

The Arab allies are going to be plenty pissed if US leaves without degrading Iran. They were doing fine before the US intervened, now they are worse of than they were before. Head hurts to think how this will play out.

The Arab allies (aka client states) thought they had a lot more influence over America than they really do; it just happened that a lot of their asks aligned with Israel's asks. When push comes to shove and America has to choose between satisfying Israeli interests or the Arab states, not both at the same time, they're going to become disappointed. Both want Iran dealt with, but I think the tension will reach a breaking point over what the final result is meant to be. Israel would love for Iran to be a failed state like Somalia, as mentioned above, with a power vacuum they can fill and huge amounts of refugees streaming out and destabilizing their neighbors. The Arab states obviously don't want that, they want Iran stabilized with a compliant predictable government. There is approximately a zero percent chance of that happening, so they're going to be sorely disappointed.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#188

Post by srean »

thrance wrote: post #186
roadside_picnic wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was my thought as well. Trump today claims he had long discussions with Iranian leadership over the weekend and Iran claims such a thing never happened. Not only is Iran justifiably angry at its attackers, they have no reason to trust a ceasefire would be respected, and, furthermore, despite damage taken, stand to gain quite a lot if the war progresses as it has. Currently Iran is exporting more oil than ever be…

In the enlightened POTUS' own words (yes, he wrote in all caps): > I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH…

I think one way to understand Trump is that he is a compulsive and successful gaslighter. Behaviorally, he is a very interesting case for psychologists. He should be in future textbooks as a case study.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#189

Post by srean »

mikkupikku wrote: post #187
srean wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Arab allies are going to be plenty pissed if US leaves without degrading Iran. They were doing fine before the US intervened, now they are worse of than they were before. Head hurts to think how this will play out.

The Arab allies (aka client states) thought they had a lot more influence over America than they really do; it just happened that a lot of their asks aligned with Israel's asks. When push comes to shove and America has to choose between satisfying Israeli interests or the Arab states, not both at the same time, they're going to become disappointed. Both want Iran dealt with, but I think the tension will reach a break…

One complication is that the sheiks are heavily invested in US tech companies and Kushner's ilk is heavily invested in the Middle East. So neither would want the other to crash and burn but can use the threat of financial pull out as a weapon.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#190

Post by tencentshill »

gos9 wrote: post #159
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

You think polymarket is where this game is being played? For a couple hundred thousand dollars? Since when do profoundly stupid people use this site?

Companies can buy a congressman for less than $10k in lobbying.
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