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OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

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Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#181

Post by cgg23 »

cik wrote: post #56
chollida1 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed Ha, i'll take the other side of that bet. I'm not sure why you think they couldn't possibly IPO and you don't really specify why in your post. Having been in the capital markets for 20 years, now is one of the better times to IPO and I'd bet that both OpenAI and Anthropic will IPO within 12 months. There are lots of games you can play like releasing a small 10% floa…

100% agreed. There's so much locked up appetite for IPOs, both from the tech crowd and the general public. There have been very few quality IPOs since COVID frankly. I'll wager that the IPO market can actually absorb all three of these that yes, are the size of the last 10 years combined. The trading market itself is larger, as are values, and valuations. I assume that to maximize value you see a standard lock and ro…

THere's interest to hold it for diversification reasons but the reality is investors are not stupid. Look at the basket-case recent IPOs: Figma and Klarna.

Many are skeptical of LLMs and how large of an impact they will have in the long-term. Nvidia's stock performance YTD is an example of that, despite the good news being pushed forward.

People want to start seeing customers of OAI, Nvidia et al start generating incremental accounting profits from LLM-specific projects, let alone economic profits.

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#183

Post by username223 »

deanc wrote: post #22
aurareturn wrote: post #12

One thing odd, maybe just to me, is why OpenAI has been stuffing its ranks with former Facebookers who are known to juice growth, find edges, and keep people addicted. They have little background in getting enterprises to buy into a product. Simo herself ran the Facebook app. That organization’s genius is consumer engagement: behavioral hooks, dopamine loops, the relentless optimization of the feed. You can see that…

AI is ubiquitous to the point where it's permeating almost every desk job in the world. Even those who don't work are using AI to help them find work, research health problems, ask questions about their daily life. I can't think of anything else since the invention of the internet that has had this much of an impact on people's lives. People will have to pay for this. I don't see it being free for long other than a f…

> I can't think of anything else since the invention of the internet that has had this much of an impact on people's lives.

If you reach a bit farther back, there's opium, an impactful product with limitless demand: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#184

Post by smcin »

floodfx wrote: post #165
sonink wrote: post #5

From the article: "You can see that in the recent iterations of ChatGPT. It has become such a sycophant, and creates answers and options, that you end up engaging with it. That’s juicing growth. Facebook style." This is something I relalized lately. ChatGPT is juicing growth Facebook style. The last time, I asked it a medical question, it answered the question, but ended the answer with something like "Can I tell you…

Some folks have been using the term “promptbaiting” to describe these obvious engagement tactics.

Thanks for this coinage. FYI your comment got killed.

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#185

Post by username223 »

Esophagus4 wrote: post #68
aurareturn wrote: post #12

One thing odd, maybe just to me, is why OpenAI has been stuffing its ranks with former Facebookers who are known to juice growth, find edges, and keep people addicted. They have little background in getting enterprises to buy into a product. Simo herself ran the Facebook app. That organization’s genius is consumer engagement: behavioral hooks, dopamine loops, the relentless optimization of the feed. You can see that…

The worst are the ones who say things like “OpenAI only has 5% paying users!” As if that’s a really bad number. That is the same ratio YouTube, the world’s largest media company, has. And ChatGPT has like 800m users after only a few years of existence. And “once they sell ads, they’ll lose all their users!” As if that happened to FB, Google, YouTube, or Instagram… Some people are really rooting for the downfall of Op…

> And “once they sell ads, they’ll lose all their users!” As if that happened to FB, Google, YouTube, or Instagram…

Enshittification only works for the middleman in a two-sided market, which is what those things are. LLMs are a commodity, so their path to monopoly profit is very different.

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#186

Post by smcin »

chollida1 wrote: post #31
cmiles8 wrote: post #15

There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed. I just don’t see investors willing to jump in here given all the questions about the financial viability of AI. The bulk of those investing now are broadly just pumping cash into the fire to keep their prior investments from going to zero. We have hit a mass deceleration of what the current tech can do with transformers. The tech is also on a path to hyper-commoditiz…

> There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed Ha, i'll take the other side of that bet. I'm not sure why you think they couldn't possibly IPO and you don't really specify why in your post. Having been in the capital markets for 20 years, now is one of the better times to IPO and I'd bet that both OpenAI and Anthropic will IPO within 12 months. There are lots of games you can play like releasing a small 10% floa…

Polymarket (for whatever it's worth) currently has OpenAI IPO at only 4% by end June and 40% by end December (and that's even for a small-float IPO as has become common).

https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#187

Post by marsven_422 »

sonink wrote: post #5

From the article: "You can see that in the recent iterations of ChatGPT. It has become such a sycophant, and creates answers and options, that you end up engaging with it. That’s juicing growth. Facebook style." This is something I relalized lately. ChatGPT is juicing growth Facebook style. The last time, I asked it a medical question, it answered the question, but ended the answer with something like "Can I tell you…

[dead]

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#188

Post by hyperadvanced »

what wrote: post #176
aurareturn wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed. I just don’t see investors willing to jump in here given all the questions about the financial viability of AI. My guess, it has barely started. I think nearly all AI IPOs have done well so far.

What AI IPOs?

There was one that went up and then back down. Coreweave.

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#189

Post by phreack »

tyleo wrote: post #59

ChatGPT seems to have become a LinkedIn lunatic. I just asked Opus and ChatGPT to explain bitonic sort: Opus: Let me build an interactive explainer for bitonic sort (builds diagram/no nonsense) GPT: "This algorithm feels weird but once you see it it clicks" (Emoji) The Core Idea ...; (Emoji) High-Level Flow ...; (Emoji) Superpower ...; (Emoji) Why You Should Care; "If you want, I can: ... (things it wants me to do ne…

If I end up using ChatGPT for any reason, I always preface with something like "2 sentences maximum. No emojis. Be professional." at the very least. It tends to improve things a bit.
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