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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#181

Post by jfengel »

fhdkweig wrote: post #84
zzleeper wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't "both side" this. As much as there is corruption in any administration, R or D, the levels we are seeing now are completely unprecedent and blunt. EG: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/13/politics/trump-fundraise-emai... (from earlier this morning on the HN frontpage)

On that topic, how many presidents in the past have had merch stores after elected? I can understand fundraising during a campaign, but after winning or losing, the fundraising usually stops.

The fundraising never stops, not even for lame ducks, because the money can always be delivered into related war chests.

But here it is going directly to the President's pockets. That has never happened before.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#182

Post by suzzer99 »

nine_k wrote: post #164
hackyhacky wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands It wasn't. You are conflating "production" with "manufacturing." They're not the same. The US, for better or worse, produces a lot of value. > moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued I'm not sure America was ever a "moral project," considering the many many dark parts of its history. Nevertheless, at the moment moment, it seems to be o…

The land of the free, and all that. America was a radical moral project when it was founded, as a republic (when monarchies dominated the world) with enshrined religious freedom (when state-enforced religions were the norm). The Civil War arguably had a large moral dimension, too.

* Does not apply to native Americans or slaves.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#183

Post by gwerbin »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #161
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

> for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up This is a myth. But a self-fulfilling one, given we’re cutting budgets to those agencies because so many Americans believe it.

Yes, it's the classic "both sides" myth. It is promulgated in order to manufacture consent for doing the thing that "both sides" are supposedly already doing.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#184

Post by empath75 »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #126
specproc wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent a fair bit of time in the former Soviet Union, what happened there is instructive for what comes next. I think we will see, across the West broadly, to varying extents: - peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics) - widespread looting of public assets, a new oligarchal class minted - total destruction of the middle class, particularly those with ties to government and NGOs (I'm in this camp and miserable for…

There will be no "peripheral states flipping" in the USA. Secession is not an option here.

It wasn’t an option in the USSR, either.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#185

Post by JumpCrisscross »

gmueckl wrote: post #142
watwut wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any Western strategy that sees this as both "us vs. them" and also pursues reduced international collaboration is bound to lose bitterly in the long run. The problem is that Europe does not have a choice here. The Greenland steal crisis is on hold, but not fixed. America clearly shown it will abuse any ties there are - it will lock accounts to tech to bully and get what they want. It will use tariffs to bully count…

The US isn't the navel of the world. It is one country that is slowly removing itself from international trade and the international scientific community. The European Union has many friendly trading partners left in the world and is also receiving an influx of previously US based talent. The trade decisions of the US aren't forcing the EU into isolationism. This is where your argument goes wrong IMO. The US governme…

> It is one country that is slowly removing itself from international trade and the international scientific community

While asserting itself militarily. This is the Roman Republic —> Empire transition.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#186

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

tw-20260303-001 wrote: post #159
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be no "peripheral states flipping" in the USA. Secession is not an option here.

Under the current understanding of “not an option”. Who knows when this changes.

It won't change until states nominally considered "red" or "blue" actually lose the vast majority of their nominally opposed population (e.g. Atlanta's current population migrates out of GA). Until then, just about every state is a complex mixture of populations with different political alignments and sufficient sizes to make secession extremely difficult if not impossible.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#187

Post by lateforwork »

Speaking of US economic data reliability:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/business/economy/inflatio...

Story title:

Change in Data Sources Led to Lower Inflation Reading

Excerpts:

“On its merits, you can defend the change,” said Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, a forecasting firm. “Optically, it’s just not a good look in an environment when people are worried about political interference.”

Mr. Sharif said he did not believe the change was politically motivated. But Courtney Shupert, an economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives, another forecasting firm, said such decisions undermine public confidence in the statistical system.

“It seems like we are moving to more of a vague, uncertain, cloudy data quality environment that is going to make market participants less confident in the data that we do receive,” Ms. Shupert said.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#188

Post by unselect5917 »

paulsutter wrote: post #103
testdelacc1 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is there always a both sides-er in these discussions? FWIW, one party generally deferred to nonpartisan commissions to draw boundaries to avoid gerrymandering. So one “side” did far more than propose a solution, they did the right thing even when the other side wasn’t. Gerrymandering is the worst example to pick when you’re pushing both-sides-bad.

Great! So please explain what algorithms are used by these "nonpartisan" commissions?

They're not.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#189

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

empath75 wrote: post #184
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be no "peripheral states flipping" in the USA. Secession is not an option here.

It wasn’t an option in the USSR, either.

The "peripheral" countries mentioned in the GP were nations or at the very least distinct semi-national entities before the USSR.

States in the USA have no effective history before being a part of the USA.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#190

Post by fn-mote »

suzzer99 wrote: post #178
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now For every prepper in the $100+ million class, I know a hundred who are not. They’re enjoying their lives or working to make more money.

A hundred more preppers who aren't $100+ millionaires? Or a hundred more $100+ millionaires who aren't preppers?

(Joke) I thought it was obvious that it was referring to 100 people who are preppers who are not $100+ millionaires, but I looked at the profile of the GP and wasn't so sure.

> karma: 178634

> about: Ski. Fly. Growth equity VC.

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