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Most of the US economy is in a recession

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Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#181

Post by samrus »

rogerrogerr wrote: post #5
mlsu wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capital must flow, period. Right now it's accumulating into a very small group of actors and becoming concentrated. There's no way to have a good economy, period, with the amount of consolidation across every sector. The only thing that's actually competitive anymore are restaurants.

Honest question, because it’s something I’ve been thinking a lot about: what is a “good” economy vs. a “bad” economy?

Its all about fluidity of value

In a good economy, value can flow from source (supply) to destination (demand), easily. You have plenty of opportunities to sell your labour, and the compensation you recieve is good enough to buy you the things you need like housing and food

Everything else derives from that

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#182

Post by alephnerd »

_heimdall wrote: post #172
alephnerd wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble Huh?!? ADIA, Mubadala, and the PIF are significant players but not that significant. The Gulf States and Iran have had bad blood for generations. There's a reason why car bombings in Al Ahvaz and Sistan-ve-Balochistan were and are respectively a constant occurrence - Khuzestani Arabs and especially B…

What makes you think JM conspiracy pilled? And how would you propose one tries to understand Iran's current motivations with regards to attacking gulf neighbors? I explicitly didn't say the idea of them attempting to preempt an AI bubble pop is the reason. I explicitly said I don't know if its true. Yes, there is a long history of bad blood between Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Yes the region is a powderkeg. No, trying t…

> I explicitly didn't say the idea of them attempting to preempt an AI bubble pop is the reason. I explicitly said I don't know if its true

Ah.

Well in that case, the answer is "no, AI is not the reason".

> how would you propose one tries to understand Iran's current motivations with regards to attacking gulf neighbors

1. The Gulf States host Western (not just American) bases so from a tactical perspective it would be dumb not to strike Gulf States.

2. The Gulf States and the Islamic Republic have had decades of bad blood, from the Syrian, Libyan, Yemeni, and Sudanese Civil War to inciting a Shia insurgency in Eastern Saudi and Bahrain to the repression of Sunnis in Iran to disputes over NatGas extraction to attempts by the Iranian government to overthrow Gulf governments.

3. The Gulf States backed Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War which lasted from 1980 to 1988 and a war which all of Iran's leadership are veterans of. Iran openly fielded child soldiers towards the end of the war, many of whom ended up becoming leadership - while most HNers (who based on references I've seen seem to have been more in the late 70s/early 80s) were playing NESes or watching Hanna Barbera reruns, a large number of your age cohort in Iran were choking on Sarin Gas or sent in human waves against the Iraqi Army, and those survivors are who are the older members and leaders of the IRGC, Basij, and Iran today.

4. The KSA lobbied to strike Iran [2] along with Israel.

A Gulf-Iran War was a question of "when" not "if". Plenty of Gulf nationals fought against IRGC trained or actual personnel in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, and the animosity against Iran and Iranian proxies is deep in the Gulf. Similarly, the animosity against Arabs and Sunni Arab States is deep as well.

Heck, this is how Iran and Iranian proxies are depicted in young adult cartoons in Saudi Arabia [0][1] - as terrorists and a depressive death cult obsessed with martyrdom, Ali, and Huseyn.

[0] - https://youtu.be/ifwtsnQxmto?si=GS21LjeMXiSC-4me&t=767

[1] - https://youtu.be/_SHYKBD8w8Q?si=EOa-y8UL2FDf6yeR&t=1905

[2] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/28/trump-ira...

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#183

Post by bluegatty »

tartoran wrote: post #138
cassepipe wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't China negotiate with Iran safe passage for its own oil only?

Not very likely. If only China bound oil passes through the strait all others would oppose, even destroy the tankers.

Goodness, no. The only entity interested in attacking tankers is China. Everyone else - even the US, wants the tankers to pass, even if it's to China.

China has huge leverage with Iran.

The issue is one of risk - the mere existence of hostilities means nobody can get insurance.

All Iran had to do was say 'it's shut down' - and insurance prices go through the roof.

No more oil.

The business math goes nuts.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#184

Post by ghaff »

nradov wrote: post #141
XorNot wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delivery services are more efficient then having the same customer base all drive to the restaurant. Unless it's in walking distance, one driver can service many people using a lot less resources.

So what? Regardless of mythical "efficiency" calculations, consumers are wasting actual dollars on conveniences that they can't really afford.

This whole thread is somewhat hilarious. It's full of reasons why expensive food deliveries are really the only reasonable option.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#185

Post by nradov »

ghaff wrote: post #184
nradov wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what? Regardless of mythical "efficiency" calculations, consumers are wasting actual dollars on conveniences that they can't really afford.

This whole thread is somewhat hilarious. It's full of reasons why expensive food deliveries are really the only reasonable option.

I guess we all starved to death 20 years ago when there were no smartphone food delivery apps.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#186

Post by ghaff »

nradov wrote: post #185
ghaff wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole thread is somewhat hilarious. It's full of reasons why expensive food deliveries are really the only reasonable option.

I guess we all starved to death 20 years ago when there were no smartphone food delivery apps.

Lots of us got pizzas delivered now and then especially in college and, if you lived somewhere like NYC, maybe Chinese. But this idea that you'd starve without food delivery in general is simply odd.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#187

Post by Auracle »

SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #134
amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation. The other half of this is of cours…

Question - has any previous bubble been so thoroughly called out as a bubble? The dotcom and 2008 real estate ones sure weren’t. Some people did, but not “everyone.”

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#188

Post by alephnerd »

_heimdall wrote: post #171
dboreham wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the first time I've seen anyone looking for a reason! Isn't the reason manifestly obvious? They're bombing their enemies. The ones that lobbied Trump to attack Iran, and that host US defense assets.

The GCC countries do host US bases, but where are you sourcing the idea that they lobbied Trump to attack Iran?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/28/trump-ira...

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#189

Post by [deleted] »

iso-logi wrote: post #149
stephen_g wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are vulnerable in Australia though because we have to move food large distances from farms to cities and are unusually road-dependent for those kind of distances (most countries use much more freight rail). Large diesel price rises are going to be extremely painful for us. And electricity and manufacturing too, since we have no real gas reservation policy and the exporters were allowed to build enough capacity to…

Diesel price rising can be easily fixed though. The Government collects 51.6 cents per litre on Fuel and Diesel, they'd need to just temporarily cut back on some of their obscene fuel margins to keep everything within steady-state. The question is, will the Government do so?

[deleted]

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#190

Post by rich_sasha »

amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

I find the "K-shaped" recovery a very compelling narrative. Some companies are going stratospheric, some are decaying, the average is +1% growth or so. So depending on where you are, you will see the economy as either booming or floundering.

There's plenty of little nuggets like this to point to. US 2025 GDP ex AI investment was in a recession. US equity market ex tech does not outperform e.g. Europe. And so on.

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