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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#181

Post by fc417fc802 »

estearum wrote: post #165
parineum wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly dismisses. I think OP's point still stands here. Who are people reporting minor incidents to that would be publicly available that isn't…

Insurers? I can't be certain about auto insurers, but healthcare insurers just straight up sell the insurance claims data. I would be surprised if auto insurers haven't found that same "innovation."

That's a fair point, but I'll note that the one time I hit an inanimate object with my car I wasn't about to needlessly involve anyone. Fixed the damage to the vehicle myself and got on with life.

So I think it's reasonable to wonder about the accuracy of estimates for humans. We (ie society) could really use a rigorous dataset for this.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#182

Post by close04 »

LunicLynx wrote: post #145
Forgeties79 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not weird. They have a history of over promising to the point that one could say they just straight up lie on a regular basis. The bar is higher for them because they have abused the public’s trust and it has to be earned again. The results have to speak for Tesla very loudly and very clearly. And so far they don’t.

But this is more your feelings than actually factual. I mean sure you can say that the timelines did slip a lot but that doesn’t really have anything to with the rest that is insinuated here. I would argue a timeline slipping doesn’t mean you go about killing people and lie about it next. I would even go so far as to say that the timelines did slip to exactly avoid that.

> a timeline slipping

You're generous with your words to the point they sound like apologism. Musk has been promising fully autonomous driving "within 1-3 years" since 2013. And he's been charging customers money for that promise for just as long. Timelines keep slipping for more than half of the company's existence now, that's not a slipup anymore.

Tesla has never been transparent with the data on which they base their claims of safety and performance of the system. They tout some nice looking numbers but when anyone like the NHTSA requests the real data they refuse to provide it.

When NHTSA shows you numbers, they're lying. If I tell you I have evidence Tesla is lying you'll tell me to show it or STFU. When Tesla does the same after so many people died, you go all soft and claim everyone else is lying. That's very one sided behavior, more about feelings than facts.

> But this is more your feelings than actually factual.

The article is about "NHTSA crash data, combined with Tesla’s new disclosure of robotaxi mileage". Sounds factual enough. If Tesla is sitting on a trove of data that proves otherwise but refuse to publish it that's on them. If anyone is about the feels and not the facts here, it's you.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#183

Post by bluGill »

ghaff wrote: post #147
eloisant wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla had a good brand image in the early 2010, they could have positioned themselves like the quality/luxury brand for EV and have people buy Tesla for the brand itself like people do for Apple. Instead they let Elon made their brand so toxic people are actively avoiding it.

I'm skeptical. If someone really wants a Tesla, my guess is that they'll rationalize Musk's actions or least compartmentalize them.

That was 10-15 years ago, but back then Musk appeared different, and Telsa was new. Today you can buy a Tesla, they are no longer the status symbol they once were. A 15 year old Mercedes is a status symbol in the US, a 15 year old Tesla is not, Tesla didn't capture the status symbol market (which might have been a good decision - what wasn't a good decision was for the CEO to go public about political views that are lot of his potential base to not support)

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#184

Post by vel0city »

mbreese wrote: post #146
vel0city wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

500,000 / 30 years is ~16,667mi/yr. While its a bit above the US average, its not incredibly so. Tons of normal commuters will have driven more than that many miles in 30 years.

That’s not quite the point. I’m a bit of an outlier, I don’t drive much daily, but make long trips fairly often. The point with focusing on 500,000 miles is that that should be enough of an observation period to be able to make some comparisons. The parent comment was making it seem like that was too low. Putting it into context of how much I’ve driven makes me think that 500,000 miles is enough to make a valid compa…

But that's the thing, in many ways it is a pretty low number. Its less than the number of miles a single average US commuter will have driven in their working years. So in some ways its like trying to draw lifetime crash statistics but only looking at a single person in your study.

Its also kind of telling that despite supposedly having this tech ready to go for years they've only bothered rolling out a few cars which are still supervised. If this tech was really ready for prime time wouldn't they have driven more than 500,000mi in six months? If they were really confident in the safety of their systems, wouldn't they have expanded this greatly?

I mean, FFS, they don't even trust their own cars to be unsupervised in the Las Vegas Loop. An enclosed, well-lit, single-lane, private access loop and they can't even automate that reliably enough.

Waymo is already doing over 250,000 weekly trips.[0] The trips average ~4mi each. With those numbers, Waymo is doing 1 million miles a week. Every week, Waymo is doing twice as many miles unsupervised than Tesla's robotaxi has done supervised in six months.

[0] https://waymo.com/sustainability/

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#185

Post by paxprose »

tsimionescu wrote: post #113
user34283 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly oppose the constant slander and the litany of lies partisan commenters post about Musk. You don't get to throw out "fondness for throwing Nazi salutes" slander, based on an hoax immediately debunked at the time, and then act like you're doing democracy a favor. Try to stick to the facts. Regarding the journalist discussed here, I had a look at his X account, and he posted no less than 20 posts attacking Te…

> based on an hoax immediately debunked at the time We've all seen the video, there is no hoax and no doubt that he was doing a nazi salute, with some level of "humor" defense.

Seriously what is up with all the Electrical n apologists? Dude's a nazi. Weaseled his way into everything digitally related to the American government and should be treated like foreign intelligence agent. He has oversold and under-delivered everything he has bought from other people to claim for himself. Weird he's got so many dickriders on HN.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#186

Post by flakeoil »

smoovb wrote: post #158

electrek.co recent Tesla headline summary with sentiment: (negative) Tesla to stop selling Full Self-Driving package, moves to subscription-only (negative) Elon Musk says Tesla 'almost done' with AI5 design, 6 months after saying it was 'finished' (negative) Tesla's full 2025 data from Europe is in, and it is a total bloodbath (neutral) Tesla updates 2026 Model Y with new features, launches tiny third row in the US (…

But is that electrec's or Tesla's fault?

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#187

Post by estearum »

ghaff wrote: post #147
eloisant wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla had a good brand image in the early 2010, they could have positioned themselves like the quality/luxury brand for EV and have people buy Tesla for the brand itself like people do for Apple. Instead they let Elon made their brand so toxic people are actively avoiding it.

I'm skeptical. If someone really wants a Tesla, my guess is that they'll rationalize Musk's actions or least compartmentalize them.

No, it's the reverse. Someone who finds Musk's behavior so abhorrent they fear being affiliated with it will actually find reasons they don't really want a Tesla.

It doesn't help that Tesla, making extremely low quality and uncomfortable cars for the price point, provides plenty of dislikable things to find.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#188

Post by estearum »

sejje wrote: post #150
ghaff wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical. If someone really wants a Tesla, my guess is that they'll rationalize Musk's actions or least compartmentalize them.

I think Facebook is even more universally thought of as a bad company, and everyone still engages there, too.

Difference is their product is so good as to be basically irreplaceable (good = strong network effects, which is the only flavor of "good" that matters)

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#190

Post by hedora »

parineum wrote: post #159
tsimionescu wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of your arguments are expounded upon in the article itself, and their conclusions still hold, based on the publicly available data. The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly di…

> The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly dismisses. I think OP's point still stands here. Who are people reporting minor incidents to that would be publicly available that isn't…

The article lists the crashes right at the top. One of 9 involved hitting a fixed object. The rest involved collisions with people, cars, animals, or injuries.

So, let's exclude hitting fixed objects as you suggest (though the incident we'd be excluding might have been anything from a totaled car and huge fire to zero damage), and also assume that humans fail to report injury / serious property damage accidents more often than not (as the article assumes).

That gets the crash rate down from an unbiased 9x to a lowball 2.66x higher than human drivers. That's with human monitors supervising the cars.

2.66x is still so poor they should be pulled of the streets IMO.

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