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The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

bayramovanar.substack.com

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Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#181

Post by RivieraKid »

A thought I had about this topic, this is a simplification of reality to illustrate a point:

Software developers are doing R&D, you create new stuff that continues to exist forever. This is unlike most jobs, in which you produce goods and services that are consumed and then you have to produce them again.

What if we are getting to the point where all of the low-hanging stuff is invented? For example, every bank has an app which works and rarely needs to be changed. Or take a social network like Facebook, going from zero to a product with 1B users took a lot of development but since then, it's been mostly static, why employ thousands of developers dedicated to Facebook? Etc.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#182

Post by tylerchilds »

RivieraKid wrote: post #181

A thought I had about this topic, this is a simplification of reality to illustrate a point: Software developers are doing R&D, you create new stuff that continues to exist forever. This is unlike most jobs, in which you produce goods and services that are consumed and then you have to produce them again. What if we are getting to the point where all of the low-hanging stuff is invented? For example, every bank has a…

These are the right questions and core to the actual “ai race”

Before ai, all we had was compilers and interpreters to take instructions and turn them into machine code and byte code

A lot of political painstaking went into which compilers and even with “better options” there’s only really a couple big fish of workflows to take an orgs ideas to production.

What passes as a compiler and what passes for a programming language exploded.

I’m very interested in “the final compile target” of these systems AND the output of that still being human readable and influenceable.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#183

Post by cjohnson318 »

billy99k wrote: post #81
cong-or wrote: post #47

Interesting framing. The article makes a compelling case that we're seeing the hangover from 14 years of ZIRP-fueled hiring rather than an AI apocalypse. But I'm curious what people think the equilibrium looks like. If the "two-tier system" (core revenue teams + disposable experimental teams) becomes the norm, what does that mean for the future of SWE as a career? A few scenarios I keep turning over: 1. Bifurcation -…

"Consulting/contractor becomes default - Full-time employment becomes rare; most devs work project-to-project like other creative industries" I'm in the tech industry and have been doing this for 12+ years now. In the beginning, it was because I wanted to live overseas for a few years, without a break in my career. Now, it's about survival. I buy my own health insurance (me and my family) in the marketplace every yea…

I was consulting like this too, but my wife also had a full time corporate job. It all kind of ended with her team having layoffs around the same time that most of my clients figured out that they could use AI to do most of my work at a tiny fraction of my rate. I had built up a lot of experience working with oil and gas software, and I thought that was pretty solid, but it's hard to compete with $20 a month. Anyway, after all that, I found a stable job with good health insurance.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#184

Post by prewett »

cong-or wrote: post #47

Interesting framing. The article makes a compelling case that we're seeing the hangover from 14 years of ZIRP-fueled hiring rather than an AI apocalypse. But I'm curious what people think the equilibrium looks like. If the "two-tier system" (core revenue teams + disposable experimental teams) becomes the norm, what does that mean for the future of SWE as a career? A few scenarios I keep turning over: 1. Bifurcation -…

#1 is inevitable; the Pareto distribution is everywhere. I read a paper on how it naturally shows up when people can act on preferences, but can't remember the paper (and it was in the context of why cities show a Pareto distribution)

#2 there will always be craftsmanship companies, but they will always be small companies, or a small team within a big organization. Craftsmanship doesn't scale; engineering does.

#3 contracting won't become the default. Many places have experimental or well-contained projects, or not enough ongoing work for full-time, but anywhere that custom-built software is important to the business will always need changes and maintenance. The problem with using contractors is that after their contract is over, they go find another contract, so they may not be available when you would like to re-use them, and then you've got to start over with a new one.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#185

Post by steve1977 »

bitwize wrote: post #160
blenderob wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> By contrast, engineers mostly require a laptop and company hoodie. Alas, gone are the days when engineers too required specialized equipment like a desktop computer on the desk that you couldn't move with you. Every evening, you left it at office and went home to live a 100% home life. Alas, gone are those days.

I was a contractor for a FAANG. My immediate cubicle neighbor liked to work out on lunch break, and to hang his sweaty, smelly gym things on the framework of his desk to air dry when he returned. I would've KILLED for a laptop I could take to the complimentary office café so I could get something done without holding my nose. If I were a full employee, I could just ask for one. Alas, as a mere contractor I was someth…

I mean, if killing was an option, getting rid of the cubicle neighbor would have solved the problem as well.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#186

Post by prewett »

__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #96

This is just scarcity based economics failing us in the ways that it has been for decades now. The only thing that stands out about tech is that from 2010 to 2020 it seemed to be withstanding the rot.

Since the world has finite goods and everyone wants more, I'm not sure what kind of economy besides "scarcity-based" you expect to find.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#187

Post by cjohnson318 »

_dark_matter_ wrote: post #117
Denzel wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you a one-person shop? How do you find clients?

Almost always they start by having connections that hire them (old colleagues, former friends, etc.), building out those connections (conference talks, doing really good work, writing high quality blogs), and then if you're lucky, some word of mouth.

Can confirm.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#188

Post by ThrowawayR2 »

gdmka wrote: post #156
Bayramovanar wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they even cut costs by leasing the computers...

I'd add that companies write off their equipment investment over a 3-5 year depreciation period. After that, when the laptops reach EOL, employees can often buy them through the company's EPP (employee purchase program) usually for just the fair market value, which might be a couple hundred € or sometimes even less. So, eventually they recoup the equipment costs, wouldn't get surprised if they even make a profit out…

Is that common? I've never worked at a corporation that had an EPP for EoL computer equipment. It always all went to a specialist recycling/refurbishing business.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#189

Post by hgs3 »

RivieraKid wrote: post #181

A thought I had about this topic, this is a simplification of reality to illustrate a point: Software developers are doing R&D, you create new stuff that continues to exist forever. This is unlike most jobs, in which you produce goods and services that are consumed and then you have to produce them again. What if we are getting to the point where all of the low-hanging stuff is invented? For example, every bank has a…

> it's been mostly static

In a well-functioning competitive market, no company should be able to rest on its laurels. The problem is industries have consolidated and trustbusters are nowhere to be found.

Notice when tech is new (the web, smart phones, AI) there's an initial burst of competitive companies? That's because the market hasn't consolidated yet. Ask yourself how many dot-com millionaires would realistically be able to duplicate their success in 2026, given the same product but launching today.

Aside from consolidation, discoverability is a huge problem, especially in the era of AI slop. Building a superior product is easy, getting it noticed and building traction is hard.

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