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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#181

Post by tempaccsoz5 »

mcintyre1994 wrote: post #128
Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

I suspect that in practice, because a lot of online gamblers spend a lot of time specifically on X, they’re more susceptible than average to fake news.

Source for this stat?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#182

Post by jart »

uyzstvqs wrote: post #167

Prediction markets are not considered gambling for the same reason that stock markets aren't. There's no fixed odds or random chance. A skilled analyst can make consistent returns. Unlike stock markets, prediction markets also provide valuable data on important world events, such as elections. It's wisdom of the crowd with financial incentive.

Equities markets allow society to collective allocate labor resources and they incentivize the public discovery of business intelligence. Prediction markets reward the public discovery of gossip. Any kind of trading can be gambling depending on how you do it. But with equities the odds are usually almost guaranteed to be in your favor if you long them and wait. I can't remember ever seeing a prediction market where I felt I could have a thesis on its outcome, unless I was spying on people. So I really don't see how they could be anything but gambling for most people.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#183

Post by kshacker »

morshu9001 wrote: post #148

Part of me wishes there were prediction markets for flight delays. The ETAs are wildly inaccurate, like last time the counter staff suggested I not reschedule cause our plane was arriving in 15min, when I could see on a slightly hard to find site that the plane was still grounded 500mi away. Part of me is careful what I wish for, starting with passengers bothering staff even more.

Isn't travel insurance one form of this?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#184

Post by foxglacier »

Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

Also hard to be a climate change doomer when you're gambling on it. Don't forget popular opinions can be extreme and wrong too. Prediction markets sound like a way to cut through the social media hysteria, although we already have insurance companies with money on the line about that and perhaps they're doing a good enough job of predicting the effects of climate change.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#185

Post by derf_ »

valkmit wrote: post #179
pixl97 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>1. People who have insider information, I mean, most stock trading prevents insider trading, unless of course you're a in congress. Seemingly regulators consider this a bug in every other market type, but suddenly this gambling market allows it? > breathless anxiety about this All fun and games until people start dying from it.

Insider trading in stocks are prohibited but not for the reason most people think. It has nothing to do with someone having an unfair advantage in an informational sense, and everything to do with fiduciary responsibility. The CEO and executive team has fiduciary responsibility to act in the financial best interest of the shareholders. Your broker too. If you have insider info (Obtained legally) but no fiduciary resp…

"Insider trading is not about fairness, it is about theft" is a uniquely American approach that is not shared by other jurisdictions.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#186

Post by layoric »

gpm wrote: post #136
smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

If the prediction market is for a non-trivial amount, it's likely someone is going to kill you in exchange for the money the prediction market offered them . The prediction market isn't acting as a prophet here, it's acting as a plausibly deniable murder for hire service and you are its victim. The people "betting against" you dying just paid to have you killed.

Exactly, these markets exist in the real world, so as their size and use increases, the more likely the odds will influence real world events. Look at sports betting for a much smaller example. Match fixing is known. Electricity markets are gamed for individual profits at the detriment to everyone and the stability of the system, even with regulators trying to keep things stable. Enough "Market for all the things" already..

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#187

Post by spir »

kelnos wrote: post #149
smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

> I'm trying to understand what the criticism is here, because the example seems to support the point that these are meant to be a way of learning the future, not oppose it. Indeed. Insider trading is a feature of prediction markets, not a bug. There are two kinds of people who participate in prediction markets: 1. People who have insider information, or at least more sophisticated predictive capability than your ave…

> 1. People who have insider information, or at least more sophisticated predictive capability than your average person.

This bucket as you've defined it is too broad.

There are a few different kinds of non-gambler participants in prediction markets:

1. People with "insider information" as we think of it - they "know" the answer to the market because they are "involved" somehow.

2. People who aim to do superior analysis of publicly available information to produce an edge. For example, an AI firm with better hurricane prediction modeling may try to monetize that by betting on whether or not a hurricane will impact an area.

2b. People who do the work to create new information. For example, the Trump 2024 election market on polymarket famously had better odds for Trump than polling. It turned out that a mega whale was bidding Trump up because he had paid for his own private polling in battleground states and that gave him confidence Trump was going to win.

In short, it's mostly incorrect to suggest that prediction market participants are either illegitimate insiders or gamblers; there is a third class of actors that are a very important cohort: those who do the work to create better predictions and monetize their work by betting in the markets. This third cohort of professional predictors is the most important in long-term prediction market growth.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#188

Post by Buttons840 »

foxglacier wrote: post #184
Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

Also hard to be a climate change doomer when you're gambling on it. Don't forget popular opinions can be extreme and wrong too. Prediction markets sound like a way to cut through the social media hysteria, although we already have insurance companies with money on the line about that and perhaps they're doing a good enough job of predicting the effects of climate change.

Good points. I also realized climate change is too slow for prediction markets. Nobody wants to bet on the average temperature in 2036.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#189

Post by latency-guy2 »

gpm wrote: post #136
smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

If the prediction market is for a non-trivial amount, it's likely someone is going to kill you in exchange for the money the prediction market offered them . The prediction market isn't acting as a prophet here, it's acting as a plausibly deniable murder for hire service and you are its victim. The people "betting against" you dying just paid to have you killed.

Why would the opposing side of that exact same bet allow themselves to be fleeced of all that money for free?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#190

Post by kpierce »

morshu9001 wrote: post #148

Part of me wishes there were prediction markets for flight delays. The ETAs are wildly inaccurate, like last time the counter staff suggested I not reschedule cause our plane was arriving in 15min, when I could see on a slightly hard to find site that the plane was still grounded 500mi away. Part of me is careful what I wish for, starting with passengers bothering staff even more.

Flightly or flightradar24 listens to air traffic control and updates the app before any announcements are made. Huge help for delays or gate changes.
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