Earlier quoted context omitted.
The pro Gaza crowd is also pro-Iranian theocratic regime (because they back Hamas) and call anyone who wants change Israelis so I wouldn't recommend using any of their tools in such a life or death situation.
> The pro Gaza crowd is also pro-Iranian theocratic regime No, they're not.
Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
181–190 of 194 posts
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
The historical part about the shah is straightforward and uncontroversial. Pick up a history book covering 20th century Iran. What part of the comment is disputable?
Let's step through these one by one: > Western governments do not want democracy in Iran. This is purely speculation, and is not generally true based on statements from Western governments. What I would say is that Western governments want stability in Iran, just like virtually every other nation. If the current leaders in Iran were not sponsoring terrorists across the world, weren't actively pursuing the most danger…
> What I would say is that Western governments want stability in Iran, just like virtually every other nation.
That’s why the US toppled the democratically elected Mossadegh in the 1950s and installed a puppet regime with the brutal Shah? And when the Iranians started a revolution and sent the dictator into exile the West gave money and weapons to Iraq‘s Saddam Hussain and killed 1 mil Iranians? And put Iran under harsh sanctions for decades under which Iranians suffer deerly?
> If the current leaders in Iran were not sponsoring terrorists across the world,
Global terrorism comes from IS/Al Qaeda, which are Sunnis, originating in Saudi Arabia, not Iran.
And speaking of extraterritorial killings: Read the book „Rise and Kill“ by an Israeli. Israel kills people around the globe extrajudicially like no other country. Israel is accused of genocide. Yet the collective West is silent.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
Iranian here (speaking from outside), fair but you have to consider the circumstances. The regime currently is in its weakest position. Russia is busy with Ukraine, many of top IRGC commanders assassinated, HAMAS is in disarray, and their nuclear program has been crippled. The water shortage was the straw that broke the camel's back. Years of sanctions, economical downturn and abuses by the Regime piled up to the poi…
It does seem like there is a point -- and running out of water would be up there near that point, in addition to a collapse of the economy, where people get motivated to make change happen even at the risk to their own lives. I mean, you are going to die anyway, right? I say that from the luxury of my very safe keyboard, of course. I hope your family is staying as safe as possible. Can't imagine the stress (I get tan…
If you look at the history of places like Iran, or more recently in Syria and Venezuela, the conditions you're describing are just as likely to lead to a mass exodus and a civil war of the remainders as anything like a successful revolution. The "Arab Spring" was also driven by issues with water and the subsequent impact on the local economic situations, and they KIND OF succeeded... for a while. Now it's all back the way it was, or worse.
The idea that misery inevitably leads to revolution is driven by narrative selection, not reality. In reality countries like the DPRK for example simply ate the cost of a million+ starving to death and then went 'happily' onward. There's a reason that successful and lasting revolutions are exceptional, not the rule.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#184Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
And?
Israel doesn't want Iran toppled?
I don't think there's really clear evidence. They're geopolitical adversaries, but Iran's ability to project force has been decimated over the last 2 years, to the point where Israel literally controls Iran's airspace. They have not much more to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability.
(I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but I don't really think about countries in those terms anyways.)
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
People love to remember the hits and forget the misses. They'll happily chat about how "hunger was the key to the French Revolution" while forgetting how many starved in the USSR, North Korea, China, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, etc... They love to imagine that the suffering of a populace is some guarantee of both a revolution and the success of that revolution. For some reason the near-total destruction of Syria and…
Iranian here (speaking from outside), fair but you have to consider the circumstances. The regime currently is in its weakest position. Russia is busy with Ukraine, many of top IRGC commanders assassinated, HAMAS is in disarray, and their nuclear program has been crippled. The water shortage was the straw that broke the camel's back. Years of sanctions, economical downturn and abuses by the Regime piled up to the poi…
Fellow Iranian here. Admiral in the Navy (my handle is to throw them off my trail). By the name of Admiral Ackbar. I want to warn the western states not to intervene during this unstable protests - the state is in fact more stable than ever -- It's a trap!
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
Israel doesn't want Iran toppled?
I don't think there's really clear evidence. They're geopolitical adversaries, but Iran's ability to project force has been decimated over the last 2 years, to the point where Israel literally controls Iran's airspace. They have not much more to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability. (I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but…
Are you saying that Israel's public statements (and actions) can't be taken at face value? or are you not aware of these:
Netanyahu Urges Iranians To Rise Up Against Their Leaders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcbYzBImi4c
Israel hopes for regime change in Iran https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/11/...
Israel strikes state-run Iranian TV during live broadcast after Iranian missiles kill 8 in Israel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RkR46Wlv6g
Inside Israel's attack on Iran's Evin Prison https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd0e23j9q8o
What is the point of attacking a TV station and a prison, if not for regime change?
For the record, I agree with you that Israel has little "to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability." I just don't think the people in charge of Israel see it that way. I think they feel they have a short window to achieve certain objectives they've wanted for a long time while Trump is in power).
And I think they prefer to have regional instability - a bunch of weaker chess pieces that they can play against each other - like how they supported both sides of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80's, funded Hamas, ISIS, and ISIS-derived militias to achieve short-term goals etc..
In case you didn't know about the last few points, here are some links:
Netanyahu defends arming Palestinian clans accused of ties with jihadist groups https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/06/netanyahu-defe...
Report: Israel treating al-Qaida fighters wounded in Syria civil war https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-israel-treating-al-...
Ex-Mossad head on Israel medical aid to al-Nusra Front - UpFront https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweHtxqnh-Y
The Israeli Army Is Allowing Gangs in Gaza to Loot Aid Trucks and Extort Protection Fees From Drivers https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-11-11/ty-article/.p...
Gangs looting Gaza aid operate in areas under Israeli control, aid groups say https://archive.is/20250606105700/https://www.washingtonpost...
“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy" https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619?s=46&t=s...
A Brief History of the Netanyahu-Hamas Alliance https://archive.ph/qHya5
By the way, regarding "Israel literally controls Iran's airspace" - Iran don't really have an air force. Their deliberate strategy given their limited resources was to focus on a ballistic missile program and all things considered this has worked ok. By the way, Israel failed to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran even when they had the element of surprise with an attack that was planned 18 months in advance (drafted during the Biden administration) yet somehow Iran was able to begin answering within 48 hours and do enough damage (which required penetrating anti-missile defenses of several major powers) that Israel agreed to a cease-fire.
After the 12-day war, China immediately sold Iran a number of J10-C fighters and air defense options, but it takes months to deliver/train all of them. So Israel is incentivized to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran before this window closes as well. In other words, Israel's war is the 'cause its own necessity' (1).
1 - The Acquired Immune System-A Vantage from Beneath https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(04)00307-3
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think there's really clear evidence. They're geopolitical adversaries, but Iran's ability to project force has been decimated over the last 2 years, to the point where Israel literally controls Iran's airspace. They have not much more to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability. (I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but…
Are you saying that Israel's public statements (and actions) can't be taken at face value? or are you not aware of these: Netanyahu Urges Iranians To Rise Up Against Their Leaders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcbYzBImi4c Israel hopes for regime change in Iran https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/11/... Israel strikes state-run Iranian TV during live broadcast after Iranian missiles kill 8 in Is…
I agree, Iran doesn't really have an air force. In fact, they don't really even have a military --- by deliberate design. Iran will never field a competitive air force and I think it's actually pretty unlikely that they'll ever even field a seriously deterrent air defense system. I think that apart from lobbing MRBMs at Israel they simply aren't a serious regional threat anymore. They bet big on the IRGC Axis and it collapsed.
I'm not as convinced as you (and the Economist) are about Israel's interests in the total collapse of the Iranian regime. Either way, the protest movement is far too large for it to plausibly be a product of foreign intervention. I don't think we have to convince each other on this point, even if we don't agree.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
The pro Gaza crowd is also pro-Iranian theocratic regime (because they back Hamas) and call anyone who wants change Israelis so I wouldn't recommend using any of their tools in such a life or death situation.
> The pro Gaza crowd is also pro-Iranian theocratic regime No, they're not.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you saying that Israel's public statements (and actions) can't be taken at face value? or are you not aware of these: Netanyahu Urges Iranians To Rise Up Against Their Leaders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcbYzBImi4c Israel hopes for regime change in Iran https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/11/... Israel strikes state-run Iranian TV during live broadcast after Iranian missiles kill 8 in Is…
I agree, Iran doesn't really have an air force. In fact, they don't really even have a military --- by deliberate design. Iran will never field a competitive air force and I think it's actually pretty unlikely that they'll ever even field a seriously deterrent air defense system. I think that apart from lobbing MRBMs at Israel they simply aren't a serious regional threat anymore. They bet big on the IRGC Axis and it…
I think you're constantly making non sequiturs around details that aren't central to the point. I could answer these, but I don't want to get distracted. At the end of the day, given everything you know, you don't believe that Netanyahu wants the Iranian regime toppled?
Revolutions can have some component of foreign intervention without necessarily negating the will of the people. The French aided the US, for example. So I don't know why the idea that the Iran protests are not foreign backed is so important to you.
There is plenty of public evidence of foreign backing of Iranian opposition (which interestingly might actually play right into the Mullahs' hands https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/has-reza-pahlavi-become...) but it would make sense for there to be orders of magnitude more activity behind the scenes vs. what is publicly stated. For example, the US didn't admit participating in the 1953 coup of Mossadegh until 2013.
So please tell me how you are so sure that there is no foreign intervention today..