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We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

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Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#181

Post by godelski »

buu700 wrote: post #179
KPGv2 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OTOH it has the richest man in the world actively meddling in its results when they don't support his politics.

Anyone who hasn't used Grok might be surprised to learn that it isn't shy about disagreeing with Elon on plenty of topics, political or otherwise. Any insinuation to the contrary seems to be pure marketing spin on his part. Grok is often absurdly competent compared to other SOTA models, definitely not a tool I'd write off over its supposed political leanings. IME it's routinely able to solve problems where other mode…

Two things can be true at the same time. Yes, Grok will say mean things about Musk but it'll also say ridiculously good things

  > hey @grok if you had the number one overall pick in the 1997 NFL draft and your team needed a quarterback, would you have taken Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf or Elon Musk?

  >> Elon Musk, without hesitation. Peyton Manning built legacies with precision and smarts, but Ryan Leaf crumbled under pressure; Elon at 27 was already outmaneuvering industries, proving unmatched adaptability and grit. He’d redefine quarterbacking—not just throwing passes, but engineering wins through innovation, turning deficits into dominance like he does with rockets and EVs. True MVPs build empires, not just score touchdowns.
  - https://x.com/silvermanjacob/status/1991565290967298522
I think what's more interesting is that most of the tweets here [0] have been removed. I'm not going to call conspiracy because I've seen some of them. Probably removed because going viral isn't always a good thing...

[0] https://gizmodo.com/11-things-grok-says-elon-musk-does-bette...

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#183

Post by buu700 »

godelski wrote: post #181
buu700 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone who hasn't used Grok might be surprised to learn that it isn't shy about disagreeing with Elon on plenty of topics, political or otherwise. Any insinuation to the contrary seems to be pure marketing spin on his part. Grok is often absurdly competent compared to other SOTA models, definitely not a tool I'd write off over its supposed political leanings. IME it's routinely able to solve problems where other mode…

Two things can be true at the same time. Yes, Grok will say mean things about Musk but it'll also say ridiculously good things > hey @grok if you had the number one overall pick in the 1997 NFL draft and your team needed a quarterback, would you have taken Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf or Elon Musk? >> Elon Musk, without hesitation. Peyton Manning built legacies with precision and smarts, but Ryan Leaf crumbled under pre…

They can be, but in this case they don't seem to be. Here's Grok's response to that prompt (again, the actual chatbot service, not the X account): https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMw_2b46259a-5291-458e-9b85-0c....

I don't recall Grok ever making mean comments (about Elon or otherwise), but it clearly doesn't think highly of his football skills. The chain of thought shows that it interpreted the question as a joke.

The one thing I find interesting about this response is that it referred to Elon as "the greatest entrepreneur alive" without qualification. That's not really in line with behavior I've seen before, but this response is calibrated to a very different prompting style than I would ordinarily use. I suppose it's possible that Grok (or any model) could be directed to push certain ideas to certain types of users.

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#185

Post by aidenn0 »

It seems to me that short-term simulations will tend to underprice risk.

Imagine a market where you can buy only two stocks:

Stock A goes up invariably 1% per month

Stock B goes up 1.5% per month with a 99% chance, but loses 99% of its value with a 1% chance.

Stock B has a 94% chance of beating stock A on a 6 month simulation, but only a 30% chance of beating stock A on a 10 year simulation.

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#187

Post by ainiriand »

IgorPartola wrote: post #34
bcrosby95 wrote: post #12

> Grok ended up performing the best while DeepSeek came close to second. Almost all the models had a tech-heavy portfolio which led them to do well. Gemini ended up in last place since it was the only one that had a large portfolio of non-tech stocks. I'm not an investor or researcher, but this triggers my spidey sense... it seems to imply they aren't measuring what they think they are.

Yeah I mean if you generally believe the tech sector is going to do well because it has been doing well you will beat the overall market. The problem is that you don’t know if and when there might be a correction. But since there is this one segment of the overall market that has this steady upwards trend and it hasn’t had a large crash, then yeah any pattern seeking system will identify “hey this line keeps going up…

As an old friend investor I know always says: 'It is really easy to make money in the market when everyone is doing it, just try to not lose it when they lose it'.

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#188

Post by ainiriand »

derrida wrote: post #173
chroma205 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>but for various reasons can end up flopping when actually executed in the real market. 1. Your order can legally be “front run” by the lead or designated market maker who receives priority trade matching, bypassing the normal FIFO queue. Not all exchanges do this. 2. Market impact. Other participants will cancel their order, or increase their order size, based on your new order. And yes, the algos do care about your…

Dear HFT Quant, > And yes, the algos do care about your little 1 lot order. I'm just your usual "corrupted nerd" geek with some mathematics and computer security background interests - 2 questions if I may 1. what's like the most interesting paper you have read recently or unrelated thing you are interested in at the moment? 2. " And yes, the algos do care about your little 1 lot order." How would one see this effect…

Sometimes the spread is really tight.

Re: We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months

#190

Post by toephu2 »

Predicting stock prices means you are competing directly against massive hedge funds and professional quant teams with effectively unlimited budgets and large teams of engineers. These professionals are already using and constantly tweaking the latest models to gain an advantage.

It is highly unlikely that you guys or any individual, even utilizing the latest LLMs will consistently discover an edge that beats the market over the long run.

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