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DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

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Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#181
post #16

Well props to them for continuing to improve, winning on cost-effectiveness, and continuing to publicly share their improvements. Hard not to root for them as a force to prevent an AI corporate monopoly/duopoly.

How could we judge if anyone is "winning" on cost-effectiveness, when we don't know what everyones profits/losses are?

If you're trying to build AI based applications you can and should compare the costs between vendor based solutions and hosting open models with your own hardware.

On the hardware side you can run some benchmarks on the hardware (or use other people's benchmarks) and get an idea of the tokens/second you can get from the machine. Normalize this for your usage pattern (and do your best to implement batch processing where you are able to, which will save you money on both methods) and you have a basic idea of how much it would cost per token.

Then you compare that to the cost of something like GPT5, which is a bit simpler because the cost per (million) token is something you can grab off of a website.

You'd be surprised how much money running something like DeepSeek (or if you prefer a more established company, Qwen3) will save you over the cloud systems.

That's just one factor though. Another is what hardware you can actually run things on. DeepSeek and Qwen will function on cheap GPUs that other models will simply choke on.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#182
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

sorry, is your contention here "spurious accusations don't require evidence when aimed at designated state enemies"? because it feels uncharitably rude to infer that's what you meant to say here, but i struggle to parse this in a different way where you say something more reasonable.

[flagged]

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#185
post #115

To push back on naivety I'm sensing here I think it's a little silly to see Chinese Communist Party backed enterprise as somehow magnanimous and without ulterior, very harmful motive.

*Communist Party of China (CPC)

You nailed it

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the rare earth minerals dumping all over again. Devalue to such a price as to make the market participants quit, so they can later have a strategic stranglehold on the supply. This is using open source in a bit of different spirit than the hacker ethos, and I am not sure how I feel about it. It is a kind of cheat on the fair market but at the same time it is also costly to China and its capital costs may beco…

Are you by chance an OpenAI investor? We should all be happy about the price of AI coming down.

But the economy!!! /s

Seriously though, our leaders are actively throwing everything and the kitchen sink into AI companies - in some vain attempt to become immortal or own even more of the nations wealth beyond what they already do, chasing some kind of neo-tech feudalism. Both are unachievable because they rely on a complex system that they clearly don't understand.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#187
post #16

Well props to them for continuing to improve, winning on cost-effectiveness, and continuing to publicly share their improvements. Hard not to root for them as a force to prevent an AI corporate monopoly/duopoly.

>winning on cost-effectiveness Nobody is winning in this area until these things run in full on single graphics cards. Which is sufficient compute to run even most of the complex tasks.

Nobody is winning until cars are the size of a pack of cards. Which is big enough to transport even the largest cargo.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#188

How will the Google/Anthropic/OpenAI's of the world make money on AI if open models are competitive with their models? What hurt open source in the past was its inability to keep up with the quality and feature depth of closed source competitors, but models seem to be reaching a performance plateau; the top open weight models are generally indistinguishable from the top private models. Infrastructure owners with acce…

> How will the Google/Anthropic/OpenAI's of the world make money on AI if open models are competitive with their models?

They won't. Actually, even if open models aren't competitive, they still won't. Hasn't this been clear since a while already?

There's no moat in models, investments in pure models has only been to chase AGI, all other investment (the majority, from Google, Amazon, etc.) has been on products using LLMs, not models themselves.

This is not like the gold rush where the ones who made good money were the ones selling shovels, it's another kind of gold rush where you make money selling shovels but the gold itself is actually worthless.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#189
post #16

Well props to them for continuing to improve, winning on cost-effectiveness, and continuing to publicly share their improvements. Hard not to root for them as a force to prevent an AI corporate monopoly/duopoly.

>winning on cost-effectiveness Nobody is winning in this area until these things run in full on single graphics cards. Which is sufficient compute to run even most of the complex tasks.

I mean, there are lots of models that run on home graphics cards. I'm having trouble finding reliable requirements for this new version, but V3 (from February) has a 32B parameter model that runs on "16GB or more" of VRAM[1], which is very doable for professionals in the first world. Quantization can also help immensely.

Of course, the smaller models aren't as good at complex reasoning as the bigger ones, but that seems like an inherently-impossible goal; there will always be more powerful programs that can only run in datacenters (as long as our techniques are constrained by compute, I guess).

FWIW, the small models of today are a lot better than anything I thought I'd live to see as of 5 years ago! Gemma3n (which is built to run on phones[2]!) handily beats ChatGPT 3.5 from January 2023 -- rank ~128 vs. rank ~194 on LLMArena[3].

[1] https://blogs.novita.ai/what-are-the-requirements-for-deepse...

[2] https://huggingface.co/google/gemma-3n-E4B-it

[3] https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall [1] https://blogs.novita.ai/what-are-the-requirements-for-deepse...

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#190
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How could we judge if anyone is "winning" on cost-effectiveness, when we don't know what everyones profits/losses are?

If you're trying to build AI based applications you can and should compare the costs between vendor based solutions and hosting open models with your own hardware. On the hardware side you can run some benchmarks on the hardware (or use other people's benchmarks) and get an idea of the tokens/second you can get from the machine. Normalize this for your usage pattern (and do your best to implement batch processing whe…

> DeepSeek and Qwen will function on cheap GPUs that other models will simply choke on.

Uh, Deepseek will not (unless you are referring to one of their older R1 finetuned variants). But any flagship Deepseek model will require 16x A100/H100+ with NVL in FP8.

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