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Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

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181–190 of 374 posts

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fridman is a morally broken grifter, who just built a persona and a brand on proven lies, claiming an association with MIT that was de facto non-existent. Not wanting to give the guy recognition is not a matter of being liberal or conservative, but just interested in truthfulness.

Patel takes anticommunism to such an extreme that he repeatedly brings up and speculates (despite being met with repudiation by even the staunchest anticommunist of guests) whether naziism is preferable, that Hitler should have the war against Soviets, that the US should have collaborated with Hitler to defeat communism, and that the enduring spread of naziism would have been a good tradeoff to make.

He also has the classic government is bad and inefficient take with zero to back it up. Just lazy pandering.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#183
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sample efficiency isnt the ability to distill alot of data into good insights. Its the ability to get good insights from less data. Evolution didnt do that it had a lot of samples to get to where it did

> Sample efficiency isnt the ability to distill alot of data into good insights Are you claiming that I said this? Because I didn't.... There's two things going on. One is compressing lots of data into generalizable intelligence. The other is using generalized intelligence to learn from a small amount of data. Billions of years and all the data that goes along with it -> compressed into efficient generalized intellig…

"Are you talking past me?"

on this site, more than likely, and with intent

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#185
post #155

If "Era of Scaling" means "era of rapid and predictable performance improvements that easily attract investors", it sounds a lot like "AI summer". So... is "Era of Research" a euphemism for "AI winter"?

That presumes that performance improvements are necessary for commercialization. From what I've seen the models are smart enough, what we're lacking is the understanding and frameworks necessary to use them well. We've barely scratched the surface on commercialization. I'd argue there are two things coming: -> Era of Research -> Era of Engineering Previous AI winters happened because we didn't have a commercially via…

The labs can't just stop improvements though. They made promises. And the capacity to run the current models are subsidized by those promises. If the promise is broken, then the capacity goes with it.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#186

>You could actually wonder that one possible explanation for the human sample efficiency that needs to be considered is evolution. Evolution has given us a small amount of the most useful information possible. It's definitely not small. Evolution performed a humongous amount of learning, with modern homo sapiens, an insanely complex molecular machine, as a result. We are able to learn quickly by leveraging this "pret…

Please stop comparing these things to biological systems. They have very little in common.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#188
post #155

If "Era of Scaling" means "era of rapid and predictable performance improvements that easily attract investors", it sounds a lot like "AI summer". So... is "Era of Research" a euphemism for "AI winter"?

If you have to ask the question, then you already know the answer

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#190
post #104
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, Epoch.ai thinks we have enough to scale till 2030 at least. https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030 ^ /_\ ***

That article is from August 2024. A lot has changed since then. Specifically, performance of SOTA models has been reaching a plateau on all popular benchmarks, and this has been especially evident in 2025. This is why every major model announcement shows comparisons relative to other models, but not a historical graph of performance over time. Regardless, benchmarks are far from being a reliable measurement of the ca…

I’m curious how you deduced it’s from 2024. Timestamps on the article and the embedded video are both November 2025.
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