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Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

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Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#181

Post by leopoldj »

daveguy wrote: post #130
re-thc wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's not "corruption". It's that very little real money changes hands. The smaller investors and debt providers get sucked into funding it but that's about it. You get GPU rentals. Not the actual billions raised they claim. So it's just creative accounting to count the same money 2-4x.

Hah. Well, back in ~2004 we had a different name for "creative accounting" to generate "revenue" while very little money chnages hands. Back then we called it fraud. But I guess terminology changes.

This kind of circular deals are very common and doesn't violate any laws. It's the magnitude and prevalence of it in the AI sector that flashes a warning sign.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#182

Post by nmfisher »

helloooooooo wrote: post #27
neom wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, and then the Canadian government handed hundreds of millions to the kids at Cohere who have now gone spent it on Coreweave. When it was all announced I was very very vocal that using an inexperienced startup for the sovereign compute capabilities seemed a very poor choice. I'm so curious to see how this all plays out.

Cohere is doing a lot of enterprise AI business, and a lot of business directly with the federal government. They are also not juiced up in these financial games that OpenAI or Oracle are playing. Additionally, Cohere is no less “kids” than Anthropic or OpenAI. Aidan was literally one of the co-authors of “Attention is all you need”.

I took "kids" more to mean they're inexperienced at building sovereign data centres.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#183

Post by fakedang »

brandensilva wrote: post #166
kjreact wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies with high morality, do those even exist? Which one of the big tech companies do you expect to work towards benefiting humanity instead of focusing on turning a profit by any means?

That's the point of having a government for the people by the people. But when you let billionaires take over that too then the people have zero protections from exploitation. If they cared they would invest in America paying more taxes, ensuring citizens are educated and capable of leading their companies versus offshoring and even competing with them. They don't want that and prefer their monopolies instead.

And as an aside, let's deep dive into the kind of person Larry Ellison is. Guy literally bought out an island where he rules as almost-a-king. You can't do shit in Lanai without Larry's say-so, and if you move out of Lanai or you quit/lose your job working for Larry, your only option is to sell your home back to him.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#184

Post by re-thc »

dchftcs wrote: post #136
re-thc wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nvidia would pay out nothing to OpenAI if OpenAI turns out to be too poor to pay for capacity. So they are not that exposed to the death of OpenAI specifically. Nvidia has invested billions in previous rounds of OpenAI raises also. Pretty sure it is not nothing. Also OpenAI rents from CoreWeave that Nvidia has invested in.

>Nvidia has invested billions in previous rounds of OpenAI raises also. Pretty sure it is not nothing. Ok I stand corrected, but the main point is that the "circular" risk more refers to the recent 100B "investment", and that is quite misleading.

> "circular" risk more refers to the recent 100B "investment", and that is quite misleading

No it's not. It refers to a web of companies sending money back and forth. Nvidia investing in OpenAI, OpenAI investing Coreweave and that goes back to Nvidia except recently 10x the scale. Amazon, Broadcom, Intel and many more are now all in on it.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#185

Post by quickthrowman »

fakedang wrote: post #183
brandensilva wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the point of having a government for the people by the people. But when you let billionaires take over that too then the people have zero protections from exploitation. If they cared they would invest in America paying more taxes, ensuring citizens are educated and capable of leading their companies versus offshoring and even competing with them. They don't want that and prefer their monopolies instead.

And as an aside, let's deep dive into the kind of person Larry Ellison is. Guy literally bought out an island where he rules as almost-a-king. You can't do shit in Lanai without Larry's say-so, and if you move out of Lanai or you quit/lose your job working for Larry, your only option is to sell your home back to him.

Please don’t anthropomorphize Larry Ellison.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#186

Post by [deleted] »

chollida1 wrote: post #17

Its worse for some other "ai" related companies. Coreweave for instance, now has its CDS trade around 600bp, which is a 1/3 rise in 2 months, which implies that the probability of a default in 5 years is 40% at a 40 cent recovery rate. That makes Coreweave's credit rating the equivalent of CCC-, which aint good.

[deleted]

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#187

Post by lokar »

MangoToupe wrote: post #180
lokar wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coreweave can default and be liquidated and the data centers will keep running just fine.

I don't think anyone is worried about the data centers but rather that the pretense of demand for them was fabricated to begin with. Of course, we can always find ways to use compute in non-productive ways—mining crypto, for instance.

Demand is at least partly a function of price.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#188

Post by r0b05 »

quickthrowman wrote: post #185
fakedang wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And as an aside, let's deep dive into the kind of person Larry Ellison is. Guy literally bought out an island where he rules as almost-a-king. You can't do shit in Lanai without Larry's say-so, and if you move out of Lanai or you quit/lose your job working for Larry, your only option is to sell your home back to him.

Please don’t anthropomorphize Larry Ellison.

Touché sir.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#189

Post by giwook »

kjreact wrote: post #148
Elizer0x0309 wrote: post #139

I still believe in AI and I believe many of these companies are going to be staples of this new era. That said, I hope Oracle doesn't survive this transition. We need higher moral companies to usher in the AI era.

Companies with high morality, do those even exist? Which one of the big tech companies do you expect to work towards benefiting humanity instead of focusing on turning a profit by any means?

Patagonia.

That said, they are the only example I can think of.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#190

Post by caminante »

neom wrote: post #135
cowpig wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What should they have done instead? I have a lot of opinions on this but curious about yours :)

I'm Canadian and I built DigitalOcean, there is a data center in Toronto because I decided. I am one of many Canadians who have built scaled infrastructure and think this is a nightmare. Many competent people at telus and bell behind the scenes believe it or not. They should have, and still should, form a crown corp and get a bunch of us older infrastructure people to help put it together. We have crown corps for thi…

I'm not opposed to CrownCorps and regulated energy markets. The most recent rumblings in the US clamor for govt. infra stepin to compete with China on power/permitting intervention. Makes sense.

That said, Cohere only got a couple hundred million from CA and the DC is being built "domestic" in CA.

That's not enough?

Sounds like you're knowledgeable about the skills gap of do-ers in CA govt, but I'd be concerned about wasting even more time/$ through incompetence. And a politician would be staked on its outcome. That's too much political risk.

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