Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

sherwood.news

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 352 posts

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#181

Post by jcalvinowens »

astrange wrote: post #179
jcalvinowens wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know what the disconnect is with that chart and people's observations. The disconnect is that CPI consistently significantly underestimates inflation as experienced by real people.

Slightly overestimates. Alternatives like Truflation show it lower. You may be thinking of Shadowstats, which is run by a crank who just takes the official numbers and adds a number he made up to them. I don't know why cranks always think inflation is secretly higher. Deflation is a lot worse than inflation, so if you're a doomer, believing in deflation would be more effective.

The idea that CPI sucks is far from a conspiracy theory... not sure why you're trying to color it like that.

The problem is that the error integrates over time, which IMHO is why graphs like that seem to suggest our standard of living is higher than ever... when a conversation with anyone at a local bus stop will tell you the exact opposite.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#182

Post by busyant »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #175
candiddevmike wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With a put, you can only lose what the put is worth. With shorting, you can in theory have infinite loses.

> With shorting, you can in theory have infinite loses This risk can be hedged with futures and options.

Agreed. But it adds complexity.

Sometimes you just want simple leverage, which the puts can provide.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#183

Post by WheatMillington »

abcd_f wrote: post #5

The market will correct before mid-terms next year. This is almost a certainty. By how much and when exactly - now, that's where the shorting profits are. PS. Burry infamously made several more bets after the "big short", bets that misfired. That is, his record is far from being 100% right.

There are no certainties in markets. I'm surprised you'd say this with so much confidence.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#184

Post by WheatMillington »

legitster wrote: post #41
ambicapter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes it an (almost) certainty?

It being a certainty is wrong, but there is a huge differential between the growth of total market value and the lackluster fundamentals, GDP growth, and jobs numbers. To put another way, there's a lot of "potential energy" being built up in the markets right now. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll pop like a bubble - but there's really no precedent for them to continue rising.

6 months ago you could accurately say there's "no precedent for them to continue rising". You may be saying the same thing 6 months from now.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#185

Post by brokencode »

dviney wrote: post #173
brokencode wrote: post #104

Hasn’t he been incorrectly predicting massive crashes every few years ever since he was right that one time? How many bad predictions does he need to make before people stop caring what he has to say?

Well his 10 year performance is 255%. Which does not include his bet in 2005-08. Buffett has only done 154% in that time. So rumours of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

That doesn’t change the fact that he keeps making these doomsday predictions that don’t come true.

Also, his returns aren’t really impressive compared to VTI, which has had an annualized return of 14.04% over the past 10 years according to Vanguard. That works out to 372% total returns in that period.

It’s easy to make money when even the broadest US index fund is up by that much.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#186

Post by WheatMillington »

mindslight wrote: post #56
sfblah wrote: post #33

The problem with these kinds of bets is the Fed Put. That's the invisible force levitating stocks. I don't really see that changing unless/until the country genuinely enters a debt or currency crisis. The path is unsustainable, but they'll keep it going as long as they possibly can.

It's even worse than that, as Palantir is a Party business. Betting against that is like betting whether specific people were going to be airbrushed out of photos in Stalin's Russia. And if you have that kind of insider insight, why short instead of making a positive bet on whomever the new Party darlings are going to be? Maybe it makes sense based on the dynamic of the Party needing to run through scapegoats? One co…

[flagged]

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#187

Post by ekjhgkejhgk »

lvl155 wrote: post #70
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Both Palantir and Nvidia have high IVs The relevant Greeks are delta, gamma and vega. If your bet pays off, the price of the stock will decrease. Delta predicts how your option will increase in value with that; gamma if that relationship will accelerate or buffer. Vega, meanwhile, informs that the price suddenly crashing is volatility, which increases the value of your options. Succinctly, if you are betting on a c…

I am not saying he won’t make money. But it won’t be commensurate with the risk he took on.

> But it won’t be commensurate with the risk he took on.

On what basis do you say this?

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#188

Post by rufus_foreman »

fragmede wrote: post #19
ambicapter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes it an (almost) certainty?

Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. General handwavy statements like "there's a bubble" aren't worth paying attention to. Ones with specific timelines attached to it (like the one above, or the article we're commenting on), are worth listening to a bit more, but unless they have the funds to back it up (like Michael Burry has put down here), it's still hot air.

>> Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions

Historically I think the reality has been the opposite of that, economists have been extremely reluctant to make predictions of an oncoming recession. This was certainly true during the great recession when economists were denying that a recession was coming even after one had actually started. That is to say, economists could not even predict the present.

There are a few economists who are predictably gloomy ("permabears", I suppose Nouriel Roubini would qualify) and I guess now there is political pressure to predict a recession anytime the other political party is in power, but from my perspective, if mainstream economists are predicting a recession, that likely means the recession is almost over.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#189

Post by [deleted] »

huhtenberg wrote: post #161
ProjectArcturis wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uhh... Powell's term as chairman ends in May 2026. His term as a board member ends Jan 2028. Senate confirmation is irrelevant because Trump will not nominate him again for anything.

Bah, you are correct [1]. I got my date from the Wikipedia page and apparently it's wrong. [1] https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48233 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell#Federal_Reserve_...

[deleted]

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#190

Post by javcasas »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #175
candiddevmike wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With a put, you can only lose what the put is worth. With shorting, you can in theory have infinite loses.

> With shorting, you can in theory have infinite loses This risk can be hedged with futures and options.

Congratulations, you just invented the synthetic put.
Post reply on HN