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The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#181

Post by malthaus »

GolfPopper wrote: post #112
philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

> Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly? I think it is near-certain that within two years a large AI company will claim it has developed AGI.

... and it will turn into a "technically true" rat race between the main players on what the definition is exactly while you can ask any person on the street with no skin in the game who will tell you that this is nowhere near the intuitive understanding of what AGI is - as it it's not measured by scores but instead of how real and self-aware your counterpart "feels" to you.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#182

Post by 91bananas »

ramses0 wrote: post #126
no_wizard wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

Jesus, we've gone from Eliza and Bayes Spam Filters to being able to hold an "intelligent" conversation with a bot that can write code like: "make me a sandwich" => "ok, making sandwich.py, adding test, keeping track of a todo list, validating tests, etc..." We might not _quite_ be at the era of "I'm sorry I can't let you do that Dave...", but on the spectrum, and from the perspective of a lay-person, we're waaaaay c…

I'd counsel you to work with LLMs daily and agree that we're no where close to LLMs that work properly consistently outside of toy use cases, where examples can be scraped from the internet. If we can agree on that we can agree that General Intelligence is not the same thing as a, sometimes, seemingly random guess at the next word...

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#183

Post by embedding-shape »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

> Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

Some people believe capitalism is a net-positive. Some people believe in a all-encompassing entity controlling our lives. Some believe 5G is an evil spirit.

After decades I've kind of given up hope on understanding why and how people believe what they believe, just let them.

The only important part is figuring out how I can remain oblivious to what they believe in, yet collaborate with them on important stuff anyways, this is the difficult and tricky part.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#184

Post by noir_lord »

gravity13 wrote: post #157
crazygringo wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people didn't think we were anywhere close to LLM's five years ago. The capabilities we have now were expected to be a decades away, depending on who you talked to. [EDIT: sorry, I should have said 10 years ago... recent years get too compressed in my head and stuff from 2020 still feels like it was 2 years ago!] So I think a lot of people now don't see what the path is to AGI, but also realize they hadn't seen…

At this point, AGI seems to be more of a marketing beacon than any sort of non-vague deterministic classification. We all thought about a future where AI just woke up one day, when realistically, we got philosophical debates over whether the ability to finally order a pizza constitutes true intelligence.

We can order the pizza, it just hallucinated and I'm not entirely sure why my pizza has seahorses instead of anchovies.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#186

Post by embedding-shape »

shaky-carrousel wrote: post #91
philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

AGI as a PR stunt for OpenAI is becoming a meme.

Wasn't it always the explicit goal of OpenAI to bring up AGI? So less of a meme, and more "this is what that company exists for".

Bit like blaming a airplane building company for building airplanes, it's literally what they were created for, no matter how stupid their ideas of the "ideal aircraft" is.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#187

Post by whynotminot »

olalonde wrote: post #177
whynotminot wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of humans that can’t drive a car (well). Part of the problem with “AGI” is everyone has their own often totally arbitrary yard sticks.

The vast majority of humans can be taught to drive.

Teslas and Waymo’s drive better than the majority of humans already.

Of course there are caveats there, but is driving really the yardstick you want to use?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#188

Post by alain94040 »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

> Does anyone really think we are close to AGI?

My definition of AGI is when AI doesn't need humans anymore to create new models (to be specific, models that continue the GPT3 -> GPT4 -> GPT5 trend).

By my definition, once that happens, I don't really see a role for Microsoft to play. So not sure what value their legal deal has.

I don't think we're there at all anyway.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#189

Post by ok_computer »

ramses0 wrote: post #126
no_wizard wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

Jesus, we've gone from Eliza and Bayes Spam Filters to being able to hold an "intelligent" conversation with a bot that can write code like: "make me a sandwich" => "ok, making sandwich.py, adding test, keeping track of a todo list, validating tests, etc..." We might not _quite_ be at the era of "I'm sorry I can't let you do that Dave...", but on the spectrum, and from the perspective of a lay-person, we're waaaaay c…

I think this says more about how much of our tasks and demonstrations of ability as developers revolve around boilerplate and design patterns than it does about the Cognitive abilities of modern LLMs.

I say this fully aware that a kitted out tech company will be using LLMs to write code more conformant to style and higher volume with greater test coverage than I am able to individually.

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