>These finance types (family offices, small secret investment funds) eat clueless VCs throwing cash on the fire for lunch… and they’re salivating at what’s ahead. It’s a “Big Short” once in 20-30 years type opportunity.
No - it's very hard to successfully bet against anything in finance, and VCs and non-public investments are particularly hard. When you go long, you simply buy something and hold it until you decide to sell. If you short, you have to worry about borrowing shares, paying short fees, and having unlimited risk.
How would you even begin to bet against OpenAI specifically? The closest proxy I can think of is shorting NVDA.
There's also nobody whose job it is to make big one-time shorts. Like you said, it's a once in 20-30 years opportunity, so no one builds a hedge fund dedicated to sitting around for decades waiting for that opportunity. There will certainly be exceptions, and maybe they'll make a Big Short 2 about the scrappy underdogs who saw the opening and timed it perfectly. But the vast majority of Wall Street desperately wants the party to continue.