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How the AI Bubble Will Pop

derekthompson.org

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Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#181

Post by mettamage »

xiphias2 wrote: post #147
donatj wrote: post #123

I feel kind of like a Luddite sometimes but I don't understand why EVERYONE is rushing to use AI? I use a couple different agents to help me code, and ChatGPT has largely replaced Google in my everyday use, but I genuinely don't understand the value proposition of every other companies offerings. I really feel like we're in the same "Get it out first, figure out what it is good for later" bubble we had like 7 years a…

Just you switching away from Google is already justifying 1T infrastructure spend. Just think about how much more effective advertisements are going to be when LLMs start to tell you what to buy based on which advertiser gave the most money to the company.

> Just think about how much more effective advertisements are going to be when LLMs start to tell you what to buy based on which advertiser gave the most money to the company.

Optimistic view: maybe product quality becomes an actually good metric again as the LLM will care about giving good products.

Yea, I know, I said it's an optimistic view.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#182

Post by piva00 »

ivape wrote: post #167
emp17344 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand what you’re saying. You know the AI is incapable of reading your mind, right? Can you provide more information?

More information: Use the LLM more until you are convinced. If you are not convinced, use it more. Use it more in absurd ways until you are convinced. Repeat the above until you are convinced.

Is this satire? Really hard to tell in this year of 2025...

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#183

Post by ____mr____ »

therealmarv wrote: post #46

It reminds me what I said to somebody recently: All my friends and family are using the free version of ChatGPT or something similar. They will never pay (although they have enough money to do so). Even in my very narrow subjective circles it does not add up. Who pays for AI and how? And when in the future?

AI companies don't have a plausible path to productivity because they are trying to create a market while model is not scalable unlike different services that have done this in the past. (DoorDash, Uber, Neftlix etc.)

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#184

Post by boxed »

lm28469 wrote: post #134
delichon wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone is paying. OpenAI revenue was $4.3 billion in the first half of this year.

You forgot that part: > The artificial intelligence firm reported a net loss of US$13.5 billion during the same period If you sell gold at $10 a gram you'll also make billions in revenues.

Reminds me of the Icelandic investment banks during the height of the financial bubble. They basically did this.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#185

Post by tbrownaw »

emp17344 wrote: post #157
ivape wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI figured out something on my mind that I didn’t tell it about yesterday (latest Sonnet). My best advice to you is to spend time and allow the AI to blow your mind. Then you’ll get it. Sometimes I sit in wonder at how the fuck it’s able to figure out that much intent without specific instructions. There’s no way anyone programmed it to understand that much. If you’re not blown away by this then I have to assume you…

I don’t understand what you’re saying. You know the AI is incapable of reading your mind, right? Can you provide more information?

Well there was that example a while back of some store's product recommendation algo inferring that someone was pregnant before any of the involved humans knew.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#186

Post by happymellon »

1123581321 wrote: post #135
freehorse wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is the kind of question that takes into account that people thinking that they are more productive does not imply that they actually are. This happens in a wide range of contexts, from AI to drugs.

It isn’t a question asked by people generally suspicious of productivity claims. It’s only asked by LLM skeptics, about LLMs.

It absolutely is a question people ask when suspicious of productivity claims.

Lots of things claim to make people more productive. Lots of things make people believe they are more productive. Lots of things fail to provide evidence of increasing productivity.

This "just believe me" mentality normally comes from scams.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#187

Post by gamerDude »

donatj wrote: post #154
amelius wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's like letting a small child drive a car. Bad example, because FSD cars are here.

Find me an FSD that can drive in non-Californian real world situations. A foot of snow, black ice, a sand drift.

Well Waymo is coming to Denver, so it's about to get tested in some more difficult conditions.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#188

Post by driverdan »

I keep seeing articles like this but does anyone actually think we're not in a bubble?

From what I've seen these companies acknowledge it's a bubble and that they're overspending without a way to make the money back. They're doing it because they have the money and feel it's worth the risk in case it pays off. If they don't spend, another company does, and it hits big they will be left behind. This is at least insurance against other companies beating them.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#189

Post by jstummbillig »

alpineman wrote: post #146
jstummbillig wrote: post #63

> It’s not clear that firms are prepared to earn back the investment I am confused by a statement like this. Does Derek know why they are not? If hes does, I would love to hear the case (and no, comparisons to a random countries GDP are not an explanation). If he does not, I am not sure why we would not assume that we are simply missing something, when there are so many knowledgable players charting a similar course,…

It’s in the article. AI globally made 12bn USD of revenues in 2025, yet Capex next year is expected to be almost 50X that at 500bn USD

It's not convincing. If those simply numbers (that everyone who is deciding these things has certainly considered) were a compelling argument, then everyone would act accordingly on them. It's not the first time they — all of them — are spending/investing money.

So what do I have to assume? Are they all simultaneously high on drugs and incapable of doing the maths? If that's the argument we want to go with, that's cool (and what do I know, it might turn out to be right) but it's a tall ask.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#190

Post by Diti »

ivape wrote: post #149
donatj wrote: post #123

I feel kind of like a Luddite sometimes but I don't understand why EVERYONE is rushing to use AI? I use a couple different agents to help me code, and ChatGPT has largely replaced Google in my everyday use, but I genuinely don't understand the value proposition of every other companies offerings. I really feel like we're in the same "Get it out first, figure out what it is good for later" bubble we had like 7 years a…

AI figured out something on my mind that I didn’t tell it about yesterday (latest Sonnet). My best advice to you is to spend time and allow the AI to blow your mind. Then you’ll get it. Sometimes I sit in wonder at how the fuck it’s able to figure out that much intent without specific instructions. There’s no way anyone programmed it to understand that much. If you’re not blown away by this then I have to assume you…

LLMs cannot think on their own, they’re glorified autocomplete automatons writing things based on past training.

If the “AI figured out something on your mind”, it is extremely likely the “thing on your mind” was present in the training corpus, and survivorship bias made you notice.

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