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What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

blog.priceonomics.com

181–190 of 356 posts

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#181
> In 1968, Chicago economist Gary Becker introduced the notion that criminal behavior could be modeled using conventional economic theories.

We need to start examining the motivations for cracking in the same way. Locks in the real world are far from foolproof, and work as much or more because of societal expectations and economics than they do because of their embodied technology.

What most companies do with DRM ignores reality in two important ways:

    1) Your own technological capability and manpower can be overwhelmed
         by the tech and manpower available to the Internet as a whole.
    2) If you have something of significant monetary or prestige value, 
         you are not going to secure it with a single supremely clever lock. 
Real world security consists of a defense in depth. Real locks and safes aren't burglar-proof. Instead, they are rated to delay thieves for a certain length of time. Their purpose is to increase the risk of the transaction thereby making it uneconomical.

Crackers will always win if the payoff is worth the effort.

Presently, any software downloaded to a user's machine can be cracked. Therefore, do not try to prevent that -- it's a losing battle. Refuse the things that you can economically refuse. (Server-side functionality, service and support, participation online.)

Detection is 1000X as powerful, if the consequences are separated in time from the actual detection. If you give the game away immediately, you are providing your opponent data. If the consequences are delayed by 3 days or even several months, the economics of cracking become like the economics of fixing intermittent bugs and Heisenbugs.

Security needs to focus on economic leverage. Since your opponents have more time and capability than you, you need to ensure that they are spending 1000X more resources to combat your actions. Instead of needing to catch them every time, or your game is lost, make them need to catch you every time, or their game is lost. (The robber needs to get away with the heist every time, while the police only need to catch him once. However, the guerrilla fighters only need to get away with a raid occasionally, while the occupiers need to catch them every time. Yet in both situations, the 1st party has far fewer resources. Something to think about.)

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#182
post #9

It would help if every purchaser of a bicycle checked the frame serial number against various online stolen bike databases. I'm not sure how fragmented the bike registration industry is.

Quite fragmented, especially considering nearly every local police department has their own.

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#183

My bike is a nice 10 speed I bought 35 years ago. It still works fine, is an excellent bike, and is worth maybe $25. I doubt it's worth stealing.

Vintage steel bikes have gone up in price quite a bit in the last 5 years or so, especially in big cities.

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This same concept was debated within the realm of drug trade - which obviously is at a different risk level. With special compartment style locks on a chain, the same concept is possible - without a dealer having to ever interact directly with the buyer. Same concept can also exist for hiding information (whistle blowers hiding a SD card with data, a key, who knows what). I don't know about SF, but it is not uncommon…

considered drugs in this case, but couldn't figure out how that would work; how would you prevent theft (from your would-be customer)? there’s no conceivable way i can think of to present a drug for someone to ‘check-out’ without enabling that person to steal it..

As mentioned there are combination locks that contain a compartment - i.e. http://www.armstronglock.com/product_info.php?products_id=17...

While in this case perhaps it wouldn't be to 'check it out' but certainly post purchase or whatever requirements needed to exist prior to getting the combination. It is subtle enough to blend in to an urban landscape where abandoned(?) locks on chains aren't all that out of the norm.

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#185
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you could make possession of stolen property (the bike) a major crime with prison and financial punishment and you weaken the demand side of things. Then using RFID or similar technology, you could embed a RFID tag somewhere in the frame. Then allow someone to report a stolen bike with a police report, very similar to a stolen vehicle report and then using remote scanners you could scan for stolen bikes very easi…

The US already proportionally has the most prisoners out of any country in the world, and I'm wary of any solution that includes making that problem worse. That kind of thing has giant socioeconomic costs and, looking at the crime rates, doesn't seem to work at making the country safer. I just don't think that finding yet another reason to put a whole bunch of people in prison (average cost per month between $2000 an…

The US also has a lot of crime. More people need to be in prison.

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#186
post #81

Bike theft seems like one of those quality-of-life crimes (like graffiti and coercive squeegee-monkeys) that's begging for some kind of creative enforcement strategy. - If there's an open-air bike market at 7th and Market, it seems like you could use some of the same strategies that have been used to shut down open-air drug markets. - Police in the greater Vancouver area have had a lot of success with bait cars, but…

How about a pressurized U-lock that releases a neon-pink paint cloud if the cylinder or restraining bar is cut-through? I guess the trick would be making it get on the thief and all over the bicycle. The best would be if it also stank to high heaven.

You can also directly attack the economics of bike resale. Make an inexpensive bike with a combined drive shaft, shifting mechanism, and lock mechanism internal to the frame. Put it together in such a way that it's quite possible to disable the lock, but impossible to do that without rendering the bicycle inoperable.

Then, instead of selling these bikes, one leases them. It would be impossible to sell such a bike without the buyer knowing it was stolen. (It may also be impossible to manufacture such a bike in the first place, but I'm not sure one could know without trying.)

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#187

It makes sense that large-scale operations are common in locations with a big bike scene. These will likely require a distribution network, so fighting bike theft might benefit from focusing on infiltrating those networks. I had a friend who bought a bike lock that was insured against any thefts (whether they were quick with the insurance, I don't know). When he went to register it, he saw that there were two excepti…

> Likewise, delegating to underlings to sell the bikes also seems too risky, as several people now know about the enterprise. It seems to work for drug dealers.

Well, but with drugs I assume a lot of purchases are from repeat costumers, so it's easier to call less attention.

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#188
post #185
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US already proportionally has the most prisoners out of any country in the world, and I'm wary of any solution that includes making that problem worse. That kind of thing has giant socioeconomic costs and, looking at the crime rates, doesn't seem to work at making the country safer. I just don't think that finding yet another reason to put a whole bunch of people in prison (average cost per month between $2000 an…

The US also has a lot of crime. More people need to be in prison.

Care to back that up? Does the US really have that much more crime that justifies locking up more people? Recent stuff I've read on this agrees with Cass (http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/atlarge/2012/01/30/120...).

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#189
My guess is that bikes will get GPS devices put in them eventually. Then people will be able to track their routes etc. Maybe when that happens, people will be able to track their stolen bikes.

Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish I had an extra $10k so I could pay you to get arrested and go to jail for 5 days to see if you would actually agree to it.

I think you're underestimating how a lot of people live and what they value and then people are also underestimating what's bad about jail. If we assume that death and sexual assault are not going to happen in this 5 days I would guess most people would do it and from what I've read it's pretty rare for either of those things to happen in the short term jails, it's prison that's the bigger risk -- and even then appar…

I think you're underestimating how a lot of people live and what they value Probably, I view $10K as a lot of money but that I expect to make, and do not need to go to jail to get.

If we assume that death and sexual assault are not going to happen in this 5 days

You can't. You will be in a facility with people awaiting trial for murder, violent acts, prostitution, hardcore drugs etc. They may segregate them, they may not, you won’t know until you get in there.

A holding cell has mainly people arrested for crimes that are not remotely serious.

Can you describe what your friends have described happening in jail that makes you so against it?

My 2 friends that have been to jail primarily mentioned that the people were way different and being stuck there felt much more real. Normally when people go to a holding cell our age they are not sober. After 24 hours you become pretty sober.

although I guess it could be that your country uses jail and prison as an interchangeable term?

I live in the US. Jails are for misdemeanors and people awaiting trail, prisons are for people convicted of felonies.

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