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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#181

Post by rsynnott »

iw7tdb2kqo9 wrote: post #6

Tesla had more chance to succeed than Waymo. It's impossible for Waymo to match Tesla in real world training and testing data. Somehow Waymo is winning.

The Tesla approach was kind of magical thinking; put enough data into the magic box, and eventually a perfect driver will pop out. In some ways it's similar to the "just make a big enough LLM and it will be GAI" thing (a model which has pretty much fallen out of favour even with the most relentlessly optimistic LLM vendors in favour of so-called reasoning models).

In reality, just shovelling data into a box is not sufficient.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#182

Post by FeloniousHam »

philips wrote: post #159
FeloniousHam wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterpoint: I had a Tesla with HW3 and FSD is absolutely a wonder and a delight (I now have a Tesla with HW4, and it's a noticeable improvement on my M3). It drives me through traffic on my commute everyday, in all kinds of weather, and is a better driver than me (say) 95% of the time. As I frequently mention in these "sanity response" posts, it's not perfect. Sun in the camera will sometimes cause it to bail. Mayb…

Did you have the FSD they gave away for free for a few weeks last year? Because I felt like I was going crazy with neighbors saying it was great while I couldn't get it to stop doing dangerous stuff. Turns out they had HW4. I think the new stack or whatever is just not ok on hw3.

I got 3 months free when I bought the car new, canceled and reupped a few times, but have had the subscription since they lowered it to 99$. The HW3 definitely had more hitches (sudden breaking for roadside debris, weird adjustments turning into parking lots), but I got used to it. For the "less maintained" road (piles of brush/garbage/discards) on my commute, I kept my foot over the accelerator.

There were definitely regressions with my Model 3, though the issues and improvements were at the margin.

The HW4 I'm in now doesn't exhibit those issues and does Park to Park to and from, most days without any intervention.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#183

Post by legolas2412 »

sjsdaiuasgdia wrote: post #42
turnsout wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. He's already made his money. Now he's gone full Howard Hughes. "I would like to die on Mars" is a direct quote.

> I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. Oh totally. That's why when Tesla shareholders sued Tesla over Elon's massive compensation package, Elon said, "I reject the compensation package entirely. Pay me nothing! Actually, I'll pay you to let me work here!"

You might want to make the sarcasm clearer. People might think Elon Musk actually said that.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#184

Post by Zigurd »

some-guy wrote: post #58
blindriver wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has lost a lot of their lustre this year. Sales plummeting is incontrovertible. Just based on that alone is devastating. But this robotaxi lack of success will not be treated the same anymore.

If the market was actually rational the stock would have tanked already. The small number of people who hold the most stock have every incentive to keep the price high.

You got Keynes's admonition against shorting right. But Tesla stock is impervious to reality not because of a small number of shareholders, but because an unusually large number of retail shareholders are in the cult of personality. It's a meme stock.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#185

Post by Zigurd »

FireBeyond wrote: post #165
xnx wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If FSD kills a person, many executives, including the top dog, need to go to jail. It would be great to have that level of accountability. Drunk drivers that kill people barely go to jail: https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/man-gets-10-days-in-jai...

It's a quip, but scarily accurate - it has been said multiple times, "If you want to murder someone and get away with it, hit them with your car."

So that's what the lying cops at the Canton PD got wrong!

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#186

Post by Zigurd »

scoofy wrote: post #127
msgodel wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of what happens theta and IV crush will probably wipe you out. I don't like Tesla's stock but I don't touch it just because both the stock and options tend to be way overpriced.

It really is wild that investments are driven by the marginal investor, not the median investor. 99% of us can think that Tesla is trash, but 1% of world investors is an absolute ton of capital.

One could even be excused for the paranoid thought that there's a conspiracy of capital backing techno authoritarians. Of course, some of that is a money maker, like surveillance tech. But these are the same people backing dodgy brain implants, and third rate LLMs at fabulous valuations. And who are OK with merging a dying social media site with that third rate LLM start up.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#187

Post by Zigurd »

scoofy wrote: post #161
AlexandrB wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're more complaining that investors who don't own a stock have no influence on its price. Which is true, but I don't see a workable way to change that. The median investor in Tesla, on the other hand, seems to be happy with the situation since they're not selling.

I'm not complaining really, just think it's a explanation that describes the downward sticky nature of companies that can't seem to justify their valuations. I agree that the median investor feels that way, I just think that the median Tesla investor (apart from passive broad based funds) is a tiny, tiny, tiny part of the market.

Actually, the reason is the opposite. Tesla is reportedly over 40% owned by retail investors compared with under 20% for most big tech stocks. It's a meme stock.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#188

Post by bookofjoe »

WorkerBee28474 wrote: post #7
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Keynes

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#189

Post by Powdering7082 »

msgodel wrote: post #113
Powdering7082 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been buying Tesla puts at a small scale for the past 6 months, usually puts about a month out. It's been a great way to lose money so far.

Regardless of what happens theta and IV crush will probably wipe you out. I don't like Tesla's stock but I don't touch it just because both the stock and options tend to be way overpriced.

Yeah it's been a good learning lesson. I only put in what I was comfortable losing (and fast!). The way the stock moved after the absolutely abysmal earnings will certainly stick with me lol

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#190

Post by jjcm »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #125
jjcm wrote: post #11

I own two Teslas, and drive between Portland and Seattle about once every 10 days, using FSD nearly the entire way. FSD has gotten amazingly better over the last year, it can and has taken me from driveway to driveway between two cities... when the weather is nice. As soon as there is any weather however, things start to fall apart. It's very clear to me that vision alone wont be the solution to FSD, and is the main…

> drive between Portland and Seattle that's literally just I-5 all the way, with probably 5-10 minutes of street driving at either end. So does FSD really offer _that_ much more of a benefit over adaptive cruise control with lane keeping unless you're continuously overtaking? I've tried enabling FSD on my Tesla twice (got two one-month trials), and really wanted to love it but was disappointed with the results when n…

> that's literally just the I-5 all the way

You're not wrong, the 3hr drive only involves 14 turns. Where FSD helps:

1. This is a very common trucking route, and often involves navigating 18 wheelers rather than just following, which the FSD is able to navigate. 2. Lots of major mergers, which again requires a bit more navigation. 3. Lane designation changes are fairly common - ie bus only lanes / carpool lanes

It's not a major amount of things, but it's still a noticeable difference between just lane centering / adaptive cruise control.

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