The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

Post by alwa » Fri, May 23, 2025, 12:43 AM UTC

OgsyedIE wrote: post #101

alwa wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 70302. Restriction of funds No court of the United States may use appropriated funds to enforce a contempt citation for failure to comply with an injunction or temporary restraining order if no security was given when the injunction or order was issued pursuant to Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 65(c), whether issued prior to, on, or subsequent to the date of enactment of this section. Doesn't that just require tha…

Yes, the required security is proportional to the costs and damages of all parties the court may find wrongfully impacted.

Post by yks » Fri, May 23, 2025, 12:52 AM UTC

goatlover wrote: post #149

lakeeffect wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need to establish a universal basic income before jobs are replaced. Something like two thousand a month. And a dollar for dollar earned income credit with the credit phasing out with at a hundred grand. To pay for it the tax code uses GAAP depreciation and a minimum tax of 15% GAAP financial statement income. This would work toward solving the real estate problem of private equity buying up all the houses…

Fat chance the Republican Party in the US would ever vote for something like that.

Post by Jensson » Fri, May 23, 2025, 1:21 AM UTC

lm28469 wrote: post #160

Jensson wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The scenario is such that a difference of a couple of years is basically irrelevant. 2 years left and 7 years left is a massive difference, it is so much easier to deal with things 7 years in the future especially since its easier to see as we get closer.

Yeah for example we had decades to tackle climate change and we easily over came the problem

Post by AnimalMuppet » Fri, May 23, 2025, 1:34 AM UTC

Aurornis wrote: post #52

Some useful context from Scott Alexander's blog reveals that the authors don't actually believe the 2027 target: > Do we really think things will move this fast? Sort of no - between the beginning of the project last summer and the present, Daniel’s median for the intelligence explosion shifted from 2027 to 2028. We keep the scenario centered around 2027 because it’s still his modal prediction (and because it would b…

Post by lostmsu » Fri, May 23, 2025, 1:44 AM UTC

Jensson wrote: post #185

lm28469 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah for example we had decades to tackle climate change and we easily over came the problem

Look at military tech 1941 and 1946, its a massive difference. 5 year time difference means a ton when people take it seriously. Only reason climate change isn't solved is that people don't care enough.