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Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

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181–190 of 503 posts

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree! People will become more productive, meaning fewer people can do more work. That said, I hope this does not result in the production of evermore things at the cost of nature! I think we are at a crossroads as to what this will result in, however. In one case, the benefits will accrue at the top, with corporations earning greater profits while employing less people, leaving a large part of the population witho…

the earth is not the property of humans, nor is any of it empty until you show zero ecosystem or wildlife or plants there. for sure, we are doing our best to eradicate the conditions that make earth habitable, however i suggest that the first needed change is for computer screen humans to realize that other life forms exist. this requires stepping outside and questioning human hubris, so it might be a big leap, but i…

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Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#182
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can’t replace a human for support, it is not even close to replacing a junior developer. It can’t replace any advice job because it lies instead of erroring. As an example if you want diet advice, it can lie to you very convincingly so there is no point in getting advice from it. Main value you get from a programmer is they understand what they are doing and they can take the responsibility of what they are develo…

> As an example if you want diet advice, it can lie to you very convincingly so there is no point in getting advice from it. How exactly is this different from getting advice from someone who acts confidently knowledgeable? Diet advice is an especially egregious example, since I can have 40 different dieticians give me 72 different diet/meal plans with them saying 100% certainty that this is the correct one. It's bad…

In the case of dieticians, investment advisors, and accountants they are usually licensed professionals who face consequences for misconduct. LLMs don’t have malpractice insurance

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#183
When new technology that seemingly replaces human effort it often doesn't directly replace humans (e.g. businesses don't rush to immediately replace them with the technology). More often than not, these systems are put in place to help scale a business. We've seen this time and time again and AI seems to be no different.

Anecdotal situation - I use ChatGPT daily to rewrite sentences in the client reports I write. I would have traditionally had a marketing person review these and rewrite them, but now AI does it.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#184

The study looks at 11 occupations in Denmark in 2023-24. Maybe instead look at the US in 2025. EU labor regulations make it much harder to fire employees. And 2023 was mainly a hype year for GenAI. Actual Enterprise adoption (not free vendor pilots) started taking off in the latter half of 2024. That said, a lot of CEOs seem to have taken the "lay off all the employees first, then figure out how to have AI (or low co…

>"lay off all the employees first, then figure out how to have AI (or low cost offshore labor) do the work second"

Case in point: Klarna.

2024: "Klarna is All in on AI, Plans to Slash Workforce in Half" https://www.cxtoday.com/crm/klarna-is-all-in-on-ai-plans-to-...

2025: "Klarna CEO “Tremendously Embarrassed” by Salesforce Fallout and Doubts AI Can Replace It" https://www.salesforceben.com/klarna-ceo-tremendously-embarr...

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#185
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was discussing with a colleague the past months, my view on how and why all these AI tools are being shoved down our throats (just look at Google's Gemini push into all enterprise tools, it's like Google+ for B2B) before there are clear cut use-cases you can point to and say "yes, this would have been much harder to do without LLM/AI" is because... Training data is the most valuable asset, all these tools are just…

Bingo. Especially with the 'coding assistants', these companies are getting great insight into how software features are described and built, and how software is architected across the board. It's very telling that we see "we won't use your data for training " sometimes and opt-outs but never "we won't collect your data". 'Training' being at best ill defined.

Most likely they can identify very good software developers, or at least acquire this ability in the short term. That information has immediate value.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#186
n=small, but I've had multiple friends who did freelance technical writing and copyediting work tell me that the market died when genAI became easily available. Repeat clients no longer interested in their work, and all the new work postings not even really worth the cost even if you tried just handing back unmodified genAI output instantly.

So I find this result improbable, at best, given that I personally know several people who had to scramble to find new ways of earning money when their opportunities dried up with very little warning.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#187

The study looks at 11 occupations in Denmark in 2023-24. Maybe instead look at the US in 2025. EU labor regulations make it much harder to fire employees. And 2023 was mainly a hype year for GenAI. Actual Enterprise adoption (not free vendor pilots) started taking off in the latter half of 2024. That said, a lot of CEOs seem to have taken the "lay off all the employees first, then figure out how to have AI (or low co…

Surprisingly, Denmark is one of the easiest countries in which to fire someone.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#188
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similairly, while not perfect I use AI to help redesign my landscaping by uploading a picture of my yard and having it come up with different options. Also took a picture of my tire while at the garage and asked it if I really needed new tires or not. Took a picture of my sprinkler box and had it figure out what was going on. Potentially all situations where I would’ve paid (or paid more than I already was) a local l…

Once they have you hooked they’ll start jacking up the prices.

It's a race to the bottom for pricing. They can't do shit. Even if the American companies colluded to stop competing and raise prices, Chinese providers will undermine that.

There is no moat. Most of these AI APIs and products are interchangeable.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#189

Have any of these economists ever tried to scrape by as an entry-level graphic designer/illustrator? Apparently not, since the sort of specific work which one used to find for this has all but vanished --- every AI-generated image one sees represents an instance where someone who might have contracted for an image did not (ditto for stock images, but that's a different conversation).

> every AI-generated image one sees represents an instance where someone who might have contracted for an image did not This is not at all true. Some percentage of AI generated images might have become a contract, but that percentage is vanishingly small. Most AI generated images you see out there are just shared casually between friends. Another sizable chunk are useless filler in a casual blog post and the author w…

> That sliver probably represents most of the work that used to exist for a freelance illustrator, but it's a vanishingly small percentage of AI generated images.

I prefer to get my illegally copied images from only the most humanely trained LLM instead of illegally copying them myself like some neanderthal or, heaven forbid, asking a human to make something. Such a though is revolting; humans breathe so loud and sweat so much and are so icky. Hold on - my wife just texted me. "Hey chat gipity, what is my wife asking about now?" /s

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#190

The study looks at 11 occupations in Denmark in 2023-24. Maybe instead look at the US in 2025. EU labor regulations make it much harder to fire employees. And 2023 was mainly a hype year for GenAI. Actual Enterprise adoption (not free vendor pilots) started taking off in the latter half of 2024. That said, a lot of CEOs seem to have taken the "lay off all the employees first, then figure out how to have AI (or low co…

2025 US has some really big complicating factors that'd make assessing the job market impact really hard to gauge.

For example, the mass layoffs of federal employees.

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