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The Bitter Prediction

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181–189 of 189 posts

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>so the industry better look for people who enjoy programming Why? Both AI and outsourcing provide a much cheaper way to get programming done. Why would you pay someone 100k because he likes doing what an AI or an Indian dev Team can do for much cheaper?

The Indian dev enjoys programming, too

And? It is a skill for the lowest end of software development. You can not pay someone 100k a year to just write software.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Writing software will never again be a skill worth 100k a year. I am sure Software developers are here to stay, but nobody who just writes software is worth anywhere close to 100k a year. Either AI or outsourcing is making sure of that.

Right now there are thousands of solo devs making >100k a year without a boss to annoy them. That's only going to grow with AI.

>That's only going to grow with AI.

And the amount of code these people write is only going to decrease.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now there are thousands of solo devs making >100k a year without a boss to annoy them. That's only going to grow with AI.

>That's only going to grow with AI. And the amount of code these people write is only going to decrease.

Yes but the size and complexity of their software will increase proportionally.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That's only going to grow with AI. And the amount of code these people write is only going to decrease.

Yes but the size and complexity of their software will increase proportionally.

And? It has done so for decades already.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#187

I'm a little older now, over 60. I'm writing a spaceflight simulator for fun and (possible) profit. From game assets to coding, it seems like AI could help. But every time I try it out, I just end up feeling drained by the process of guiding it to good outcomes. It's like I have an assistant to work for me, who gets to have all the fun, but needs constant hand holding and guidance. It isn't fun at all, and for me, co…

> reading two documents side by side while looking for errors is much more draining than just reading the original letter and typing it in

Validating LLM-generated text seems to be a hard problem, because it requires a human-quality reader.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So? What is your point?

"Writing software will never again be a skill worth 100k a year." First sentence of my OP. I thought it was obvious.

Which is not true, writing software will continue to be a skill worth millions, even billions. But yeah, as we will soon have hundreds of millions of programmers, on avg 100k will be a thing of the past :)

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I just categorically disagree that a codebase is impossible to understand without “sufficient” additional context. And I think you ascribe too much order to software written by humans that can exist in quite varied groups wrt ability, experience, style, and care.

It was easy to understand what the code was instructing the computer to do. It was harder to understand what that meant , why it was happening, and how to change it. A program to calculate payroll might be easy to understand, but unless you understand enough about finance and tax law, you can't successfully modify it. Same with an audio processing pipeline: you know it's doing something with Fourier transforms, becau…

Marcus Müller gives a good explanation in a comment (CC BY-SA 4.0) on Stack Exchange: https://dsp.stackexchange.com/posts/comments/204371

> [The] problem is that the sole medium of transport here for the intent of what the user wanted the language model to write and what we see is the output of the language model. And that in itself is a bit of a problem: had we hand-written code, we could look at what it tries to do; it would have suggestive names, maybe even comments, stemming from the user's original intent, and not from an LLM's interpretation of what the user told it was their intent. Basically, LLMs are intent-obfuscating machines for engineering problems :)

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