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Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

reuters.com

181–190 of 302 posts

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#181
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> EU already also has a mutual defense clause extremely similar to NATO Is it explicitly nuclear?

Well, there is still NATO. Because the US are unreliable doesn't mean that the other members of NATO are? Genuinely asking.

> there is still NATO

For conventional war, probably. For nuclear, will Paris risk its homeland for Latvia?

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#182
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Macron has been advocating for tighter European collaboration for years, insisting that there should be an integrated European army in 2018 and calling NATO "brain-dead" in 2019. The question is whether other European countries want to be integrated, and thus far the answer has been that they do not.

This is what people outside of Europe do not understand. We are not one country. We are 27 sovereign countries with their own parliament and their own final decisions that must coin a common European policy. This is an immense effort.

It makes it slow, but it also means that the EU cannot turn authoritarian with one election, like the US did.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#183
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, there is still NATO. Because the US are unreliable doesn't mean that the other members of NATO are? Genuinely asking.

> there is still NATO For conventional war, probably. For nuclear, will Paris risk its homeland for Latvia?

Right. So the question is: given that NATO is now a lot weaker because of the US, it's not clear whether the promises of mutual defence still hold. Do I understand that correctly?

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a war of attrition now, which is a war of will and logistics. Can anything be done differently? I don’t know, but I don’t think so. Isn’t victory under these circumstances making the war so costly that your opponent must find a way out? The US was doing that. Russia’s will has won out over the US’s, that is a defeat, and we can only hope next time it isn’t the same.

War of attrition. I thought we'd be further along after three years of sanctions and weapons but I wonder if Ukraine has the manpower to keep it up. From what I understand, Ukraine is drafting men ages 25-60 which may signal they need boots on the ground soon.

Ukraine probably does not. Is Russia willing to risk the possibility of US/EU troops ending up on the other side of the trenches? Probably we’ll never know now, and maybe that’s better. But is it better that Russia knows maybe three years and the US might call it quits?

My country, Norway, shares a border with Russia. We have 5.5 million people. Would the US abandon us because we’re running out of troops? That’s the question we’re asking ourselves.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#185
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sometimes heard vague theories of rich people on the east coast having their jets ready to fly to New Zealand, but I'm not sure how realistic that would be in such a scenario.

Billionaires such as Zuckerberg are also building luxury bunkers [1]. Kinda wish they tried to prevent apocalypse instead... [1] https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep...

All they’re doing is making rich, delicious oysters for those left on the surface to shuck.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> getting the US out of what he views as foreign entanglements The point is our alliances are also foreign entanglements. These idiots didn’t think through that withdrawing from those means fewer weapons (and other) orders from America, more nukes pointed at America and less strategic depth between our adversaries and our shores.

The US hasn't withdrawn from any of its military alliances, and thus far has expressed no plans to do so. I feel like this is where a lot of NATO commentary gets bogged down. There's a large group of people, conventionally referred to in US media as "the blob" ( https://www.vox.com/22153765/joe-biden-foreign-policy-team-r... ), who believe that the United States has an affirmative duty to engage in lots of global mil…

The NATO treaty doesn't imply in his wording any obligation for a military reaction to an invasion of a member of NATO. There's no penalty to just respond with a strongly worded letter, but there's an expectation an ally will react militarly.

Will your allies trust you any longer if you just follow the letter of the treaty? I don't think they will. More critically, nor will anyone else.

The US have historically positioned themselves as "defenders of democracy" and have multiple times used that positioning actively. It's inevitable for an expectation to be there for them to do just that. The US is free to violate expectations and just follow the letter of the treaties it has, it is a sovereign nation after all, but the surprised and frankly childish "we have no obligation!" reaction to the blowback is more unreasonable than the expectations for its support of Ukraine, particularly in how it has been handled politically.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New Yorker here. Last year one of my meditation teachers here in the city casually mentioned that in some sects of Tibetan Buddhism there's a prophecy of some sort of catastrophic global event between 2026 and 2032, and a former monk friend of his advised him to leave NYC by 2030. From some casual googling it seems like the text is "The Light That Makes Things Clear: A Prophecy of Things to Come". I'm a non-believer…

How is trump speed running towards another world war? To me– a non-us citizen– it does seem like quite the opposite.

Well he has talked repeatedly about taking Greenland "by force", which in itself wouldn't be a world war, but of course is still terrible.

I think the concern is that telling Ukraine to surrender their land after they were invaded by Russia will give Russia the confidence to start attacking other European countries. Traditionally, NATO would have protected us from that happening, but with Trump upsetting all our NATO partners, I'm kind of concerned that that won't help this time.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#188
post #170
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukrainian nukes were about as Ukrainian as Texas-based US nukes are Texan — they were Soviet weapons targeting US cities, with launch authority and maintenance cycles controlled from Moscow. After independence, Ukraine had physical possession of a huge nuclear arsenal but lacked the codes and infrastructure to operate or maintain it long-term. The only practical options were to dismantle them, bargain them away, or p…

> though they ultimately chose to denuclearize under the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security assurances. That the US and the UK (and obviously Russia) did not honour, did they?

It had been honoured — or at least not directly violated — for 20 years. And in international affairs, 20 years is "forever."

Between 1918 and 1938, how many treaties were signed, broken, rewritten, and ignored by how many powers?

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France depends on Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Niger for uranium. At least it depended on Niger until there was a military coup that stopped further exports. If there is a large scale conflict, I would not bet on those reactors accomplishing much. Not to mention that they did not accomplish much three years ago during the biggest energy crisis in decades, and that they need humongous investments just to keep running, s…

That's interesting. In case of large scale conflict, for how long could French reactors run ? I assumed for quite long, am I completely wrong here ?

While not being very actively mined, Czech Republic has large Uranium reserves & provided a lot of the initial soviet uranium after the soviet sponsored comunist coup:

https://english.radio.cz/czech-radioactive-dillema-8109837 https://www.suro.cz/files/2021-03/Uranium%20mining%20history...

I guess lots of this could be restarted if there is demand ?

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#190
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war could have been over if Biden and Musk hadn’t meddled in Kyiv’s strategy. This is the exact line of thinking that Hitler used to justify WW2. Surely we can all see this logic for the farce that it is. Ukraine never had a shot at winning this war and it’s only with massive international support that they’re able to maintain the fragile stalemate they now find themselves in.

> This is the exact line of thinking that Hitler used to justify WW2. Hitlers literal claim was that Germany needs a living space, that Germans do not fit into German. Plus he claimed that the world is a war of races. Like, these were his literal justications.

Well yes. But he also claimed that Poland had attacked first.
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