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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#181

Post by consp »

moffkalast wrote: post #150
VladStanimir wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with electric cars is charging infrastructure in cites. An electric bike or scooter can be brought indoors to charge.

Solar freakin' parking lot roofs.

Or get rid of parking lots and build other infrastructure. Solar roofing is quite expensive and it is also much easier to do on an existing building which requires less investment.(Thus is done first). I've seen some happen but only as trail-by-subsidization or because the owner didn't care about the cost.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#182

Post by devnullbrain »

aqueueaqueue wrote: post #174
devnullbrain wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That advice might not travel well: until recently I lived in a city where the bike rental service pulled out because too many were thrown in canals.

Let me guess ... probably drunks so guess drinking culture. Maybe UK. Big city with enough canals for this to be an issue ... probably Birmingham?

Close, think more northern.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#183

Post by NewJazz »

eftpotrm wrote: post #145
edwcross wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most countries still do not mandate that new apartments include charging ports for parking spots. So densely-populated areas will still be plagued with non-EC compatible buildings for decades to come. That's what "city life" mean in several countries.

Agreed, but they're not that complex to retrofit to a parking space. I can foresee a future where each space has a port and an account card reader - they'd make the buildings more valuable, the supplier to that space has a basically guaranteed income stream, and the government has an easy emissions reduction. Wins all round, so why wouldn't it happen?

The operator could demand an exclusivity contract from the landlord, provide faulty equipment, then charge high fees to repair it, eventually leading to many stalls non-functional until the contract is invalidated in court or the two parties settle, the chargers are ripped out, maybe with purposeful permanent damage to the wiring to make it unusable, and another mildly more honest provider comes in and does something slightly better but not by much.

Or, an enterprising landchad could realize they can charge 10% more kWh than people actually pull (blaming efficiency losses), along with a healthy margin for "maintenance".

Lots can go wrong.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#184

Post by consp »

aqme28 wrote: post #160
xnx wrote: post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

Also an order of magnitude or two better for the climate than an electric car.

As anecdotal example: My diy ebike will do about 80km unassisted (aka peddling for show) with .85kwh. Looking at what scooter should be able to do when not going too fast is a big order of magnitude (but not two) in kwh/100k. Though headwind is going to matter more on a bike/scooter than a car. I guess with a more efficient motor you could get up to two.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#185

Post by MaKey »

fuoqi wrote: post #173
idontwantthis wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want an electric bike but I want to go places with it and I’m worried about it getting stolen when I lock it up outside a shop. Do you have one?

Consider an electric unicycle (EUC). It's much more compact, so you can easily bring it into shops and other buildings, as well as it's much less troublesome when you use public transport (most models can be easily kept between your legs). From the safety point of view it's not as bad as it seems on the first glance, especially if you don't plan riding on it faster than 20-30 km/h.

Those must not be used on public roads in some countries though.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#186

Post by whiplash451 »

idontwantthis wrote: post #30
xnx wrote: post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

I want an electric bike but I want to go places with it and I’m worried about it getting stolen when I lock it up outside a shop. Do you have one?

Consider a Hiplock D1000 (not affiliated)

I bought one for my expensive gravel and have been happy with it so far.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#187

Post by Fricken »

jppope wrote: post #27
toomuchtodo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But I repeat myself, apologies to Twain Downhill = good, momentum is unstoppable, nothing stops the electrification transition, we’re simply arguing time horizon now; China will be the clean energy and mobility manufacturer to the world. (50% of car sales in China in 2024 were battery electric or plug in hybrid)

I feel most people still don't realize that China is facing a demographic crisis. If their demographics matched the United States sure, but its unlikely china will be leading many of these future technological situations. Don't take me the wrong way, they have a great opportunity in front of them but just the resources required to take care of their elderly is going to suck up a pretty hefty amount of resources.

The whole developed world is facing a demographic crisis. The US brith rate is expected to fall below replacement levels in 2033.

https://apnews.com/article/population-projections-congressio...

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#188

Post by _glass »

Ekaros wrote: post #162
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It’s not so much of a problem due to the average daily drive being a fraction of range Most people who own a car in cities in Europe also use it for long commutes to visit family in weekends or on holidays, often crossing borders. Range is then a problem since most families can afford only one car so edge cases matter. Maybe the wealthy Benelux and Scandinavia have top EV charring infrastructure but a lot of central…

It is the 1% or 10% case. Like for me going to bigger airport. Renting a car would be complete waste for it to sit a week there. And for range I would want something that can get me there in one go and back also in one go, with week of sitting idle. As adding extra 30 minutes to 1h travel time on top of all time it takes is less than ideal living. And public transport would add even more time or less flexibility thos…

For me it is only the visiting family use case, where rental doesn't make sense. We have car sharing in the city (Miles) which fixes almost all use cases. Driving to the airport only when without kids, as they both still need car seats, that I can't leave. Otherwise car sharing rental is perfect to get to the airport.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#189

Post by NewJazz »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #172
Ekaros wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is the 1% or 10% case. Like for me going to bigger airport. Renting a car would be complete waste for it to sit a week there. And for range I would want something that can get me there in one go and back also in one go, with week of sitting idle. As adding extra 30 minutes to 1h travel time on top of all time it takes is less than ideal living. And public transport would add even more time or less flexibility thos…

>It is the 1% or 10% case. Not based on where I live. Many people I know routinely drive hundreds of KM on a weekly basis to their families and renting a car for that doesn't makes sense.

The Hyundai Ioniq 6 has a range of over 500 km, and typical 20-80% charging times are around 20 minutes. Where in Europe can you drive 350 km and not pass a single charger?

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#190

Post by potato3732842 »

aqme28 wrote: post #163
_ea1k wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt total sales have peaked. Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up. But EVs are eating enough market share that combustion cars are likely never climbing past their peak again.

Not everyone drives. If population growth is mostly in places where people bike/ebike/walk/train, then your assumption doesn’t hold.

When those people get richer they'll want to drive. We see this all over the developing world. The growth might be less than the growth in mass transit but as populations become richer they become more mobile so the absolute demand will likely increase.
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