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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

vincentschmalbach.com

181–190 of 431 posts

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#181

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

"Sell for half a billion and get nothing (2021)" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39598903

This looks exactly like the story that convinced me I would never accept a loan with the preferred stock bullshit. Except the year 2021 is much later than when I decided that.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#182
post #162
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This tracks. I think the real value employees get is riding the rocketship in their career. Early engineers often have first dibs on higher level roles, like CTO or director over people that join late. Your initial grant might not be great, but being director at such a company is huge

Unfortunately, the company preferred to hire experienced ex-FAANG managers for those roles.

Everyone: Big Tech ruins news/social media/small businesses/democracy!

Also everyone: FAANG employees are better than everyone else!

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#183

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

Good point. I started looking at HN a few years ago, and though I knew it was run by YC it didn’t even occur to me that it at one point was startup-oriented

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#184
My impression is that the disillusionment with startups has led to m a gradual shift towards small self sufficient software businesses. Some folks that would have previously started a VC backed startup for casual software ideas now just keep the scale down and supplement their income on the side.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#185
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a question: what's the list of startups fitting the criteria of - after 2008 Great Financial Crisis - actual startup, not spinoff from larger company - financially successful exit - early non-founder employees made a substantial amount of money?

Why the after 2008 foundatuon criteria. Someone who joined FB in 2010 could have got rich right? Same with Google, Amazon, most other unicorns that established before 2008.

Get rich in the sense of "decent salary, and HODL the company stock", sure. Get rich in the sense of riding that startup VC wave, no.

Amazon had north of 100,000 employees by the time I joined in 2012. The "plucky startup" days were long gone, even if they did still tell the fable of the door desks at every orientation class

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#186
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's so nice to see my homeland is famous for something! :-) Zimbabwe Dollars FTW. I have 500 billion dollars in a cupboard somewhere BTW.

Sorry, I do love Zim really. I was looking for a metaphor that non-history nerds wouldnt confuse. Papiermark would have been better, but needed explaining.

Germany’s worthless currency got overshadowed by subsequent events, so I suppose there’s something to be said for Zimbabwe still being notorious for this.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#187
post #98

Most engineers figured out that the options/stocks of startups are worthless.

I certainly did. I have options/stocks from 3 different companies, all vested, but zero expectation of seeing any money out of it. One of them recently went belly up and had an exit for peanuts. I didn't go for big tech but I did pick a job on a YC startup that, while demanding, allowed me to purchase my own house and work on my own stuff in the evenings.

Your options haven’t expired since leaving those startups?

I recently left a job at a startup where I had some options vested. It would be like 6k to exercise them. I was leaning towards leaving em, and now this thread has kinda convinced me

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#188
post #139
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory I wouldn't say I'm an old-timer by any metrics, but even back in 2012 when I first discovered and joined HN, I remember it was pretty clear in the community (and people I spoke to around me) you shouldn't go to work at a startup if you were looking for "a lot + safe" money. Sure, you could belong to the 0.001% and work on the n…

The thing that puzzles me is the early "only eating Ramen and pulling all nighters" startup founder story. I suppose nobody believes this anymore, fortunately. I mean... we all agree, it would seem, this is not the path to getting rich for most people. And it's unhealthy and stressful, so it's also not the best way to work. So it has to come down to "the mission". You must be doing something so amazing, so innovative…

Or you think you’re special. You know it’s risky and many people fail, but you’ve got the right idea, intelligence, work ethic, etc. It might even be true sometimes. I’m sure success isn’t randomly distributed. The trouble is figuring out if you really do have it or if it’s self delusion.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#189
post #150
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This tracks. I think the real value employees get is riding the rocketship in their career. Early engineers often have first dibs on higher level roles, like CTO or director over people that join late. Your initial grant might not be great, but being director at such a company is huge

You'll find that outside the startup, the director/vp/cto title doesn't translate. Larger companies will often write you off as being "not experienced" enough which is often code for "you don't look old enough for this position". Unlike engineering and the startup world, big companies want you to look the part not just know the part.

The corporate world is simply a different environment with a different set of rules and a different set of engagements and thus requiring a different set of skills. A director or VP at a startup and a director or VP at a Fortune 500 company are two totally different things.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#190

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

This reason I think more than any of the other reasons stated is the cause.

Once the financiers took control and ensured they would reap the majority of the rewards, the risk/reward ratio was no longer there for many workers who gravitated towards big-tech instead.

Now big-tech is pushing burnout culture hard, and with higher interest rates limiting capital investments from VC's I wonder if we will start to see movements of people away from big-tech to more traditional startups again in the near future?

AI startups I believe are already showing this trend away from big business (and even away from their own 'big business' towards smaller startups within AI), but that probably falls more into the group that "believe in the 'mission'" as you point out.

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