I find that the gushing around deepseek is fascinating to watch. To me there are a few structural and fundamental reasons why deepseek can never outperform other models by a wide margin. On par maybe--as we reach the diminishing returns with our investment in the models, but not win by a wide margin. 1. The US trade war with china which will place deepseek compute availability at disadvantages, eventually, if we ever…
Western LLM censorship affects me far more than Chinese LLM censorship.
Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
181–190 of 476 posts
Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
#182Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
Xi has knee-capped anything a threat to his power, this Xi-ceiling as I call it, will prevent true cutting edge dominance compared to the West. Sure, there’s censorship in the West, but it’s not nearly as scary or effective as the East’s. Genius does not regularly spring under the sword of Damocles.
[flagged]
Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
#184Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's literally happening lol. When you were a kid China was making shoes and their GDP is 10% of the US. Now they're making drones / evs / high end electornics and it's 80%. This is why people's perception is so unreliable because it's impossible to notice things when they happen over a lifetime
When I was a kid, China was a lot better integrated with the international community. Right now their relationships are far and few between, rarely featuring first-world nations. If Russia couldn't beat NATO in a pitched fight against the rest of the world, neither can China.
Albeit US cannot speak as US-centric paranoia/"exceptionalism" may do the same thing...and the electorate voted to self destruct the government despite US economy being the strongest in decades.
Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
#186Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
#187I find that the gushing around deepseek is fascinating to watch. To me there are a few structural and fundamental reasons why deepseek can never outperform other models by a wide margin. On par maybe--as we reach the diminishing returns with our investment in the models, but not win by a wide margin. 1. The US trade war with china which will place deepseek compute availability at disadvantages, eventually, if we ever…
Outside of that tho China is in a very good position to say out perform the west with its disregard for copyright, and not caring if feelings get hurt by the woke left.
Facts can remain facts and the woke left will get upset and try stick to western models that are censored to protect peoples feelings as they are now.
Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you have the right idea. China has yet to truly flex its muscle. They prefer to quietly grow stronger. Their response to Covid with the largely successful zero covid strategy gives a clue about the power of its government. Silly, you can’t become the champion without stepping into the ring.
China creates a superbug via GOF research. Accidently releases it from the lab. Shuts down its own economy. Puts the majority of it's citizens on house arrest, and that is "largely successful"? Please send me the AliExpress link to whatever it is you are smoking, it must be some good shit. I think the real lesson here is that if you enough government power, there is no need to be competent. The feedback loop is destr…
In 2024, this isn't fact, it's just baseless conspiracy.
All evidence has ended up pointing to bush meat contamination.
Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
China has 900M people making less than $400/month, and 600M people making less than $100/month. relative GDP is a joke, go to China to see what most of them are eating (hint: it's unsafe food filled with chemicals, or its mostly carbs) and where these people are living (hint: it's shoddy constructed condos or run down farm houses)
It’s unclear to me why what you’re describing is specific to China and not also what Americans euphemistically refer to as “fly over states.”
Of course, the same can probably be said about the large population centers in China too. More people concentrated in one area tends to mean more poverty in that area and all the things that come with it.
Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race
#190Impressive to think about how DeepSeek achieved: ~ Parity with o1 and Claude with > 10x less resources. Better algorithms and approaches are what's needed for the next step of ML.
Wide models sound like they know more than deep models but fail at reasoning with more than a few steps and are cheap to train and serve. Deep models know a lot less but can reason much better.
An example I saw all moe models fail at a few months back was A and not B being implicit in the grounding text, all of them would turn it into A and B a substantial proportion of the time. Monolithic models on the other hand had no trouble with giving the right answer.
The Chinese AI companies can only do wide Ai because of restrictions on hardware exports. In the short term this will make more people think llms are stochastic parrots because they can't get simple thinks right.