Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted • Hacker News Board

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#181

Post by fuoqi » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:30 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #150

fuoqi wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

13th largest backed by the whole NATO and other US-aligned countries. They send almost everything they can outside of nuclear weapons, the most cutting edge military tech, and people (well, outside of a limited contingent of "advisors"). Let's be honest, without this backing the war would've ended in the first month as was drafted in Istanbul.

> Let's be honest, without this backing the war would've ended in the first month as was drafted in Istanbul The West didn't really help Ukraine in the first month [1]. We thought the Russian army was competent and would ride into Ukraine like we did in Iraq. It wasn't until after the weakness was made apparent that aid started dripping in. Ukraine repelled a Russian invasion on its own. Our generations-old anti-air…

The West was actively supplying Ukraine since 2014, especially after the Debaltsevo embarrassment. Yes, it pales in comparison to the post 2022 levels, but it still was far from insignificant. Even your Wikipedia link lists a lot of pre-2022 aid and I am pretty sure this page is far from being comprehensive.

And it's even without mentioning the direct role of Boris Johnson in tanking the Istanbul accords.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#182

Post by maximilianburke » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:30 PM UTC

PKop wrote: post #166

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> sacrifice more Ukrainian men for the meat grinder? To the extent there's a meat grinder, it's of Russians [1]. > What has that accomplished so far? Russia's disqualifying itself as a conventional military threat for at least a generation. It's not yet there yet, largely because Ukraine has been unable to target its war marchine. But the startling inefficacy of its army and technology has been made clear. Moreover,…

>To the extent there's a meat grinder, it's of Russians It's of both. Why deny the fact Ukrainian men are dying in droves? This is disrespectful of those that paid the ultimate sacrifice. Pretending this is not extremely costly to Ukraine in manpower is denying reality. They have been increasing the age of conscripts as they're running out of young men.

And, hence, we should give them all the arms and tools they need and the freedom to use them to end it quickly. The dithering on behalf of Biden and Scholz is what's prolonging this.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#183

Post by JumpCrisscross » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:31 PM UTC

buran77 wrote: post #175

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> problem starts if (when?) Trump and his clown posse turns the US into a similar setup Lots of institutional checks in America that post-Soviet Russia lacked.

> Lots of institutional checks You're right but given enough time of the "right" type of people entrenching their power (which of course may not be "one term" but that could be enough to put things on a path), and even the best of checks and defense mechanisms start to evaporate or just become a tool against what they were intended to defend.

> given enough time of the "right" type of people entrenching their power, and even the best of checks and defense mechanisms start to evaporate or just become a tool against what they were intended to defend

Sure. If the GOP sweeps the midterms and 2028, and also seizes most legislatures and governships, and they all remain loyal to Trump, we will see a situation resembling post-Yeltsin Russia.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#184

Post by rdtsc » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:31 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #113

rdtsc wrote: post #82

> "it’s obvious this wasn’t an accidental anchor drop.” If it's "he who shall not be named", gotta admit, that's a clever strategy: ramp up sabotage and see how NATO/EU will feel about their "red lines", and how well does that article 5 really work in practice. Is it worth more than the paper it's printed on? Let's find out! People have been laughing at the West crossing multiple Russian "red lines" and the Russians…

> yet NATO/EU just looks weak and pathetic in the process Really? Russia, with the 6th largest army in the world, had to pull in Iran and Pyongyang to not get invaded by the 13th largest [1][2]. Moscow is being a nuisance. That doesn't make NATO or Europe look weak, it makes Russia look pathetic. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/uk…

> Really?

That's exactly how the Russians perceive the EU. They are perceived as weak. There is no way they would have started the invasion if they were afraid of them. They are engaging in asymmetrical warfare because they are convinced they can demonstrate that to the world as well "look what we are doing there and well we get is phone calls form Sholz" [1]

> Scholz condemned the war of aggression against Ukraine

> The German leader called on Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine ...

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-calls-putin-for-first-...

That might look like a "power move" by Germany but it looks absolutely weak in the eyes of Putin.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#185

Post by armchairhacker » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:32 PM UTC

tetrisgm wrote: post #60

The constant Russian interference, combined with the regular escalation from the jets patrolling, and the radar jamming, really needs to be dealt with. We're stuck between having to do timid actions and full NATO escalation. This feels like constant creep.

IMO the right action is to counterattack with equal force, ideally in the same way. So cut one of their undersea cabals, fly jets near or over their airspace, etc.

That way, there's a clear line for what NATO will and won't do that Russia can understand. If attacks escalate it will be Russia that escalated every time. If Russia feels it's threatened, all they have to do is stop the attacks and NATO will stop. If Russia is going to nuclear warfare over not being able to unevenly harass NATO, because we can't read Putin and the oligarchs' minds, and what objective measure would allow that but not allow Russia to go nuclear warfare over not enslaving all of NATO, or claiming they can/others can't do everything not written unambiguously in a treaty (which would extend to new technologies like partitioning the solar system that we couldn't have thought ahead-of-time)?

But I'm no diplomat, so maybe I'm wrong and my idea would be catastrophic.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#186

Post by CapricornNoble » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:33 PM UTC

petre wrote: post #91

tetrisgm wrote: post #60

The constant Russian interference, combined with the regular escalation from the jets patrolling, and the radar jamming, really needs to be dealt with. We're stuck between having to do timid actions and full NATO escalation. This feels like constant creep.

Best course of action at this time would be to properly arm Ukraine.

What exactly would "properly" arming Ukraine look like? The entire Western world doesn't produce enough Patriot missiles to meet Ukraine's air defense needs, just as one critical example. We are aiming for a global production target of 750 missiles/year ( https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15354795 ).... Russia has fired about 6,000 missiles and large drones per year ( https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-over-2-000-russ... ).

You can send Ukraine all of the F-16s in the world, it won't matter if there aren't enough Ukrainian pilots with the linguistic skills to get them through the Western training pipelines.

The reality is that the West can't make the math work at a level of commitment/investment that it is willing to accept. To say nothing of the steadily-worsening problem of "lack of living, breathing Ukrainian men willing to do the fighting in the first place"...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#187

Post by JumpCrisscross » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:33 PM UTC

PKop wrote: post #180

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What business is that of ours? We are enabling it. They clearly want to fight! This is like arguing giving someone chemo is enabling their cancer.

Who is "they" and what is "clearly"? They are running out of men they can find to fight, and for quite a while the government and military used very aggressive methods to force men into service. There is a huge desertion problem, in the military and the country itself. A whole lot of Ukrainians do not want to fight. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukraine-running-out-s...

> Who is "they" and what is "clearly"?

Who do you think?

> A whole lot of Ukrainians do not want to fight

Yes, there is not unanimous agreement on a big political question. Shocking. By this measure, nobody should ever fight for everything.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#188

Post by JumpCrisscross » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:33 PM UTC

johnisgood wrote: post #172

petre wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Best course of action at this time would be to properly arm Ukraine.

Which happened and kept happening for a long time now, including the US sending billions of dollars and weapons (among other things). That did not help, did it?

> Which happened and kept happening for a long time now

We've been drip feeding and hand tying Ukraine. Practically every military expert has said this is not the way to win a war.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#189

Post by jiggawatts » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:34 PM UTC

meiraleal wrote: post #139

polotics wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nato is a defensive alliance against any offensive act. Russia, ...as in: the mafia of the few profiteering rulers currently at the helm, is not fighting back anything. Firstly, its mad Ukrainian adventure has meant it has made its border very defence-free on its border with Nato countries. Secondly, it is constantly attacking in hybrid warfare mode, paying local lowlife to do propaganda graffiti and sabotage. The ap…

[flagged]

> Lucky Russia to have the strength to make their enemies fear them.

Russia has enemies because for centuries it has attacked its neighbours repeatedly.

And then imposed its own idea of peace that involves tanks rolling through Budapest and soldiers executing students and poets.

Tiananmen square shocked the world, but that kind of behaviour was already familiar to Eastern Europeans. It was the same old song, different orchestra.

Russia is not your friend, no matter what the propaganda tells you and your countrymen.

You’re just momentarily useful to a warlike mafia controlling a country.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#190

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 9:35 PM UTC

jiggawatts wrote: post #173

dzhiurgis wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fear is the greatest weapon. You can keep sanctioning them, but you’ll never get anywhere. Give nukes to Ukraine, even pretend ones and war will end in minutes.

Imagine an enraged man ready to punch an aggressor in the face being held back by his friends. You propose to walk up to him, have him released and give him a loaded gun. The world would blame you, not the wound up man itching for revenge.

[deleted]