Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

Post by secure1234 » Wed, Jun 06, 2012, 7:06 PM UTC

dockd wrote: post #174

speleding wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cannot help luck (p) but you can help the number of times you put yourself in a position to be lucky (n). The expected value is n x p, so you clearly have a big influence in your success. For example, going to Princeton gives you a much bigger chance to be seated next to an important Lehman person, and having the right parents gives you a much higher chance to go to Princeton. Some people have such high "n" they…

Perhaps the way to think of this is by going to Princeton, you increase the chances of sitting next to someone from Lehman. So you're not putting yourself in a position to be lucky, you're reducing your need for it. In other words, we view the odds of an unlikely event as lucky (the chance you'll sit next to someone important) but the odds of a likely (sitting next to someone who can't get you a job) event as the nor…

Post by confluence » Thu, Jun 07, 2012, 2:38 AM UTC

intellegacy wrote: post #172

confluence wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could rephrase that sentence: Bill's intelligence, hard work, cunning, and competitiveness played a huge role in Microsoft's early success, and this success was multiplied manifold later on by extraordinary luck. Once again I never said it wasn't necessary - the intelligence or the hard work. I merely indicated that it isn't sufficient for success above a certain level. Your first statement is unverified, and pro…

I agree that intelligence, after a certain upper limit, isn't required for success, and in fact an abundance of it at the upper levels may actually work against success. Bill Gates stopped pursuing math because he realized at Harvard that he wouldn't be the best at it. He was actually taking graduate level math courses in his undergrad sophomore year. source: http://askville.amazon.com/read-Bill-Gates-toughest-math-c…

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jun 08, 2012, 4:18 PM UTC

Post by RockyMcNuts » Sun, Jun 10, 2012, 2:09 AM UTC

twoodfin wrote: post #142

RockyMcNuts wrote: post #115

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s/b Salomon Brothers You may now resume proving Lewis's point, that "People really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck."

So just how much more "lucky" is Warren Buffet than a thousand other capitalists? If you took away every penny he owns and made him 25 again, do you really doubt he would be able to earn it all back?