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How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

fortune.com

181–190 of 415 posts

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The economies of scale you get by packing people in larger vehicles mostly have to do with the cost of fuel and staffing. Trains (and train-like options such as metros) are vastly more efficient than cars in number of people moved per unit of time per area used. That might not be a big deal in suburbia, but in dense inner cities it's one of the most important drivers of public transport.

Autonomous vehicles could chain up or drive really close together and achieve similar space efficiency. Also, if you look at a train track. It's mostly empty space with a train passing occasionally. Very different than a well used road. And autonomous vehicles could collaborate to counter any congestion. What makes trains efficient has more to do with the cost of energy and drivers than anything else. Both of those g…

1. Still not as passenger dense as a train or a bus

2. They will need stop some time. Where? Will this block the street?

3. They won’t all go to the same place so there will be delays at junction and side streets

4. No margin for error wouldn’t fly in practice, so the cars cannot be that close together

5. How will pedestrians cross a train of cars?

I just don’t see how this all adds up. Automation doesn’t remove the space constraints of cars in cities.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxis are a form of public transportation. After all, what's the major difference between a taxi and a bus other than capacity/driver attention?

Technically they are, yes, because they're open to the public. But the impact of taxis on road traffic in a dense city is comparable to the impact of private cars - perhaps even more so as they're often travelling empty between rides. If every journey which was previously done with a car is done with a taxi, there's no reduction in vehicle traffic - meaning the same problems of congestion and pedestrian safety. Drive…

Taxis are often worse since they drive around looking for fares.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#183

As a proponent of good public transportation I'm a bit afraid that automated taxis will get big enough in USA that they will start influence city wide decisions on how to develop city transport network even in Europe when time comes for them to expand their business.

I'm sorry but good public transit in the US isn't going to happen. Passenger rail has never been profitable anywhere since its very inception. With the rise of remote work, and declining ratios of working-age populations putting increasing pressure on public finances, we're just never going to see a widespread expansion of public transit. AVs give us a path toward a world where very few people need to own their own c…

And the day the Google bot decides to close your account for obscure reasons, with no recourse, all you can do is stay in bed and starve cause all these things are now inaccessible to you ? Even if self driving actually happens, it'll be the ultimate surveillance-ridden, enshitiffied service that will ruin not just the internet but our whole lives and cities.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After two of my (women) friends were assaulted by Uber/Lyft drivers, a weird smell is the least of my fears. If I'm sending someone on a ride late a night, Waymo's lack of driver is a huge reason to prefer them over Uber/Lyft. But only if the destination is in a safe neighborhood. A human driver's going to be able to make a better assessment of if it's safe to let someone off somewhere, vs Waymos will randomly drop y…

It is also that they suck on average.

Also, the really fantastic ones will be excellent for years and years, and then one day they're slightly sleepy.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#185
post #3

I just left a version of this in another thread—I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time, crash rates plummet, and these kinds of articles come to resemble articles from 1910 about horse-related problems. Humans suck at driving: https://jakeseliger.com/2019/12/16/maybe-cars-are-just-reall... Waymos avoid many…

I've said this on HN before as well, but I've turned into a full-on Waymo evangelist (Los Angeles user here). Couple of things to add to Jake's comment... The driving experience itself is on par with the "best" drivers I've ever ridden with (things like stopping at actual stop signs, for instance, and not racing from one traffic light to the next, and being courteous to bikes and pedestrians), not to mention just the…

Can you just clarify in the situation where, 'the Waymo straddled a left turn "lane" and a straight-travel lane', whether the behaviour of the Waymo was 'safe' although obviously incorrect for multiple reasons?

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#186

They have a fairly big weakness. If someone takes over their control these taxis are basically weapons. You have to admit that the question is not if this is possible but how will it pan out.

People can literally just go to a car rental service right now and do that as well. Or use a car service app. Or rob someone elses car. Most people in society don't really have a desire to run amok.

I think OP means remotely control the car.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#187
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Glossing over the part where you try to tell a judge a company should be owned by its assets, why do you think the 'autonomous' in autonomous cars means they would also be able to do hiring, planning, assign work etc?

I'm guilty of thoughts about autonomous companies. They don't require AI necessarily, just a formula to hire reliable humans. One could short cut to the gedankenexperiment by assuming the company owner is a p-zombie[0]. It would boil down to the same thing without scaring the humans. Even the judge would have to accept it. edit: What to do when people get brain chips? [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophical_z…

You should read Accelerando and the Saturn's Children books by Charles Stross if autonomous corporate structures are your thing.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#188
post #2

Waymo is currently under investigation for multiple incidents, not all of which it had previously disclosed to the NHTSA [0]. The recent light pole incident also doesn't help [1]. If they are doing 50k rides a day, then they would appear to have a remarkable safety record. It will be interesting to see if these investigations lead to a repeat of the Cruise debacle or if this will become the price of doing business. […

Waymo has notably escaped any investigation of the "Prius vs Camry" crash induced during unsafe testing done in pursuit of a demo https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/22/did-uber-steal... > The car went onto a freeway, where it travelled past an on-ramp. According to people with knowledge of events that day, the Prius accidentally boxed in another vehicle, a Camry. A human driver could easily have handled the s…

Levandowski stole Waymo trade secrets, and only escaped the full consequences of his actions because of a Trump pardon. He is not representative of anything about Waymo in 2024.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#189
post #112
post #107

This seems silly. It’s been obvious even to casual observers like myself for years that Waymo/Google was one of the only groups taking the problem seriously and trying to actually solve it, as opposed to pretending you could add self-driving with just cameras in an over-the-air update (Tesla), or trying to move fast and break things (Uber), or pretending you could gradually improve lane-keeping all the way into auton…

What I’m really looking forward to is when autonomous taxis can run a net profit —- including maintenance and upgrades —- at which point, instead of letting Waymo take all the vehicle profit in the world, I want to start an autonomous taxi company and then find an appropriate legal construction/shenanigan to give ownership of the company to the cars! The philosophical dilemmas would easily make the initial investment…

Can LLMs pass the bar yet? Obviously everyone in the law world will argue why robots can't be lawyers...
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