Live data from Hacker News

Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

fortune.com

181–190 of 234 posts

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need more inflation than 2% though. The fact that 211% is too high doesn't mean that 2% isn't too low. And the low inflation expectations leads to low interest rates which reduces the cost of money which is creating our financial sector inflation/bubble.

You should look up Wynne Godley and Sectoral Balances.

Prefer Thomas Palley and Monetary Disorder: https://www.imk-boeckler.de/fpdf/HBS-008713/p_fmm_imk_wp_93_...

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting definition of government debt, but those “paying back” the debt in future taxes are very unlikely to have any connection to those who incurred the costs to start with.

But they will have inherited the asset side of the debt from grandad won’t they. That’s the connection. Debt is really saving and when people spend those savings it eliminates the debt.

That assumes Grandad didn’t blow the money on dumb and/or short lived stuff.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#183

We owe a bit more than 1 year's GDP. Most families that own a house owe substantially more than 1 year's income. Last time we reduced the annual deficit to zero, the usual debt hawks all reversed their position and said "this is terrible". We've demonstrated in my lifetime that we can do this. The fact that "we" don't want to right now has more to do with Republican attitudes towards taxation than anything else. MMT…

> We owe a bit more than 1 year's GDP. And who is this money owed to? $24T is owed to US domestic entities, while $7T is foreign owned: * https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-u... Americans are mostly paying money to themselves.

I might be completely off but wouldn’t having more foreign owned debt be better since America can just say “we won’t pay that” and nobody has the power to collect? The military can always just crush whomever disagrees.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Democrats (not all, for sure) would be very happy to massively cut defense expenditure, which is a vast slice of federal expenditure. Alas, that has two problems: (1) US military spending is our own national version of socialism, in which we prop up communities by providing massive state subsidies, along with housing, healthcare, education and more to a large group of people (2) because of (1), it is hard to…

The active duty military vote is not actually a solid republican voting block, contrary to popular belief: in 2020, they swung +8 for Biden [1]. It’s the veterans who are solidly (2/3) conservative, currently, but even that’s lessening [2]. Unfortunately I don’t think a majority of either party wants to reign in military spending, considering every admin including Obama and Biden has increased it since Carter, even t…

Just to be clear, I wasn't for a moment suggesting that the military itself is a solid R (or D) voting bloc.

What is true, however, is the most (not all) communities with a functioning US military base close by is a solid voting bloc for NOT cutting military expenditures, at least not insofar as they could lead to base closures (and specifically, their base).

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Democrats (not all, for sure) would be very happy to massively cut defense expenditure, which is a vast slice of federal expenditure. Alas, that has two problems: (1) US military spending is our own national version of socialism, in which we prop up communities by providing massive state subsidies, along with housing, healthcare, education and more to a large group of people (2) because of (1), it is hard to…

Cutting military alone wouldn't fix anything. Everybody has their own pet issues they want to cut. The reality is only broad taxes on the middle class or massive social spending can really change the long term situation. Not that cutting military spending wouldn't be smart.

You're really not accounting for scale. My pet peeve is the US military, your pet peeve (might be) subsidized cell phone service for low income people. One of these things is not like the other.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our taxes cover entitlements, military, and debt. That's it. Everything else is coming from the deficit. The Republicans have cut taxes to an unsustainable level. No matter how big or small the rest of the government is, the tax base is too low to support it.

> have cut taxes to an unsustainable level Something like half of every dollar I make gets swallowed up by taxes of some sort, either directly or indirectly (by making products and services more expensive). A good portion of it just to fuck around in foreign countries against my wishes. How much more should they take?

I make about $120k/year. I have to pay taxes quarterly, since my income comes from my software business. I pay a total of 22.6% of my monthly income in federal and state (NM) taxes, and that currently nets me a significant refund every year since the TCJA ("Trump tax cuts").

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The government doesn't owe the debt, we the people do. We authorized & enabled the government to incur that debt on our behalf.

This is pretty non-mainstream macroeconomic point of view. It did not correspond to reality when latest sovereign debt default occurred in Greece. Then it was government, foreign banks who bought the debt and European Central Bank who was on the hook for restructuring, not citizens or general public.

Who was on the hook for the effects of the debt restructuring deal?

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't know why you're being down voted, it's widely accepted that it only really works for currencies that are reserve currency status. It could also work if you were entirely self-sufficient with no exports/imports. All on the proviso that humans are quick to react to inflation, using perfect information, which we're not and which we don't have.

It works for all currencies. Some currencies have higher savings rates than other currencies. The problem is calling that saving 'debt' and then catastrophising about it.

IIUC, it works for all currencies that are coupled to the economic and political policy making process. It does not work when the currency value is controlled to any significant degree by parties outside that process. These are sometimes called "sovereign currencies", and US dollar is one example thereof.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Democrats (not all, for sure) would be very happy to massively cut defense expenditure, which is a vast slice of federal expenditure. Alas, that has two problems: (1) US military spending is our own national version of socialism, in which we prop up communities by providing massive state subsidies, along with housing, healthcare, education and more to a large group of people (2) because of (1), it is hard to…

The active duty military vote is not actually a solid republican voting block, contrary to popular belief: in 2020, they swung +8 for Biden [1]. It’s the veterans who are solidly (2/3) conservative, currently, but even that’s lessening [2]. Unfortunately I don’t think a majority of either party wants to reign in military spending, considering every admin including Obama and Biden has increased it since Carter, even t…

The Democrats were much more interested in cutting military budgets until, you know, all that fun with Russia... and China... and Israel. We are very quickly remembering why we spend so much.

The American military budget is mostly the "America guarantees everyone can do business with anyone else (but mostly America) so that we can be very wealthy" budget. Remember that we built and sailed the Great White Fleet before world war 1.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cutting military alone wouldn't fix anything. Everybody has their own pet issues they want to cut. The reality is only broad taxes on the middle class or massive social spending can really change the long term situation. Not that cutting military spending wouldn't be smart.

There are a lot of Ron Swansons out there, who simultaneously decry big government and make their living directly from government spending. > The reality is only broad taxes on the middle class or massive social spending can really change the long term situation. Why the middle class, which has mostly been taxed into not existing? How about the upper class? As Warren Buffett says, they've won the class war, and gone…

>Why the middle class, which has mostly been taxed into not existing?

Because that's not how the American middle class died? The American middle class died when upper management sold your solid career to the Chinese for a quick buck, and spent all the windfall on enriching themselves for decades. It's amazing you cite Warren Buffet while saying that, who commonly calls for higher taxes on the wealthy.

Post reply on HN