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Self-driving as a case study for AGI

karpathy.github.io

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Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#181

Post by steveBK123 »

icpmacdo wrote: post #169
steveBK123 wrote: post #101

Seeing the guy who couldn't deliver FSD decide to make analogies from FSD to AGI does actually give me confidence we are decades away. Yes, yes, I know there's like 1-2 companies that have highly modified vehicles that are pretty good, in a limited geofenced area, in good weather, at low speed, driving conservatively, local roads, most of the time. This is not "FSD". They've been making very impressive incremental im…

> Seeing the guy who couldn't deliver FSD decide to make analogies Reductive and rude phrasing.

10Ks.. possibly 100K people were sold $5-15k worth of software that doesn't work and won't be refunded. I think that's pretty rude.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#182

Post by nl »

pdimitar wrote: post #123
nl wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who the hell snuck in and redefined the science of thinking machines to this sad and reductive get rich quick crap? OpenAI, back in 2018: https://openai.com/charter It wasn't particularly controversial at the time - didn't get mentioned in the HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16794194

HN is not authority on anything. And a private company trying to hijack a term is not impressive or even merits any discussion. They just willed the term into existence. The rest of us are free to disagree with their "definition".

I don't disagree with you. Your competing definition is a welcome addition to the conversation.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#183

Post by randallsquared »

mechagodzilla wrote: post #163
gitfan86 wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because something is difficult to measure does not mean it doesn't exist. People who have automated their jobs are unlikely to report that, since they like having a paycheck. But that doesn't mean it isn't happening.

It's not difficult to measure though - we've been tracking total factor productivity of our economy for decades. Steam power, electrification, computers - all of these things had huge, measurable impacts on the amount of economic output vs input. No self-reporting (of what?) necessary. If AI means that companies are getting the same or more output from less input of labor and capital, productivity should be soaring r…

> Steam power, electrification, computers - all of these things had huge, measurable impacts on the amount of economic output vs input.

Well... maybe not computers, which seems relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox#IT_unprod...

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#184

Post by nullstyle »

latexr wrote: post #173
nullstyle wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Handguns are a bigger problem in the modern world than machine guns. How does that change your analogy?

They’re a bigger problem because there are more of them and they’re easier to get. Which isn’t a metric that applies here. Analogies seldom map on every metric, they’re a tool for exemplification. In this case it’s like anyone having equal access to either a handgun or machine gun. Even if the analogy were wrong, that wouldn’t make the point invalid. I know the point I’m making (and presumably so do you). Again, the…

I don't think shitposts are the same thing as bullets, and choosing machineguns/hanguns as your analogy is a poor exemplification considering you could have instead have chosen an IMO more apt fax machines/email analaogy while making the same underlying point of "...much faster rate and higher accuracy than before..."

Yes, spam is worse with email, but we're still in a better place overall than before in my opinion.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#185

Post by mechagodzilla »

randallsquared wrote: post #183
mechagodzilla wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not difficult to measure though - we've been tracking total factor productivity of our economy for decades. Steam power, electrification, computers - all of these things had huge, measurable impacts on the amount of economic output vs input. No self-reporting (of what?) necessary. If AI means that companies are getting the same or more output from less input of labor and capital, productivity should be soaring r…

> Steam power, electrification, computers - all of these things had huge, measurable impacts on the amount of economic output vs input. Well... maybe not computers, which seems relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox#IT_unprod...

Ha, I was thinking of that when I typed it. I agree though - I think many of the AGI boosters on HN would be very surprised by how little economic productivity increased thanks to computers and the Internet.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#186

Post by buzzert »

snowpid wrote: post #75

Self driving is also a good example from a regulation viewpoint and societal interaction. Unfortunately the article is very America - centric and ignores e.g. Mercedes progress, German regulation and the competition in China.

What is the Mercedes progress?

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#187

Post by hiAndrewQuinn »

ben_w wrote: post #150
vladimirralev wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, don't count on AI being aligned at all. States who are behind in the AI race will increasingly take more and more risks with alignment to catch up. Without a doubt, one if the first use cases of the AI will be as a cyberweapon to hack and disrupt critical systems. If you are in a race to achieve that alignment will be very narrow to begin with. Regarding the pet vs humans - the main difference is really that t…

> First, don't count on AI being aligned at all. I don't. Even in the ideal state: aligned with who? Even if we knew what we were doing, which we don't, it's all the unsolved problems in ethics, law, governance, economics, and the meaning of the word "good", rolled into one. > Without a doubt, one if the first use cases of the AI will be as a cyberweapon to hack and disrupt critical systems. AI or AGI? You don't even…

It's always nice to see someone else on Hacker News who has pretty much independently derived most of my conclusions on their own terms. I have little to add except nodding in agreement.

Kudos, unless we both turn out to be wrong of course.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#188

Post by hiAndrewQuinn »

fodkodrasz wrote: post #76
hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming AGI doesn't kill us all, I would imagine the argument for UBI will become much easier to defend once it causes 100x, 1000x, 10000x etc growth in the economy. Our job is mostly to hang on until one of those two outcomes occurs.

The thing is that economy does not make sense without people. Economy is a way to allocate human work and resources, and provide incentives for humans to collaborate, factoring in the available resource limits. Now if AGI make people's work redundant, and makes economy grow 100-10000x times... what does that measure mean at all? Can produce lots of stuff not needed or affordable by anybody? So we just hand out welfar…

Really? I can't even imagine an economy of like, sentient dogs?

Or paper wasps: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2017-biological-markets/

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#189

Post by snowpid »

buzzert wrote: post #186
snowpid wrote: post #75

Self driving is also a good example from a regulation viewpoint and societal interaction. Unfortunately the article is very America - centric and ignores e.g. Mercedes progress, German regulation and the competition in China.

What is the Mercedes progress?

Level 3 with guarantee. More than Tesla offers in the US which is mentioned in the article.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#190

Post by SnazzyJeff »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #13
SnazzyJeff wrote: post #8

IMO a chatbot is sufficient to demonstrate AGI. I think the chinese room problem is as good as anything. Of course, there isn't much money in teaching a bot that only knows english chinese. EDIT, Wikipedia page for context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room

People like to shit on the Turing test, but if you step back from the subjective judgement angle, and instead imagine that the person performing the Turing test is a scientist trying to collect evidence that the agent that it is communicating with is _NOT_ intelligent/human, it is actually still very relevant. Tools like statistical analysis of output and responses to jailbreak prompts and recursive/self referential…

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