African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings • Hacker News Board

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#181

Post by zote » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:04 PM UTC

sekou wrote: post #20

Tanzania may have the lowest GDP of the three port countries mentioned but Dar es Salaam has the largest population compared to the smaller cities of Mombasa and Durban. From what little I understand the Tanzanian government may be in the best place politically to use these stress tests to focus more attention on port health and capabilities. I'd be happy for anyone else to weigh in.

> From what little I understand the Tanzanian government may be in the best place politically to use these stress tests to focus more attention on port health and capabilities.

The government isn't really in a good place to capitalise on this, they recently signed a deal with DP World to operate part of the Dar es Salaam port. Sentiment on the deal has been pretty negative (massive understatement of the year, no official polls but anecdotally, everyone was pretty pissed with it). https://www.ft.com/content/f5776df5-9375-438f-bbeb-bc7e8c296...

Considering this existing agreement, the murky dealings surrounding it, the circumstances we found out about it (it was leaked). I don't see them seeking anyone's attention, or even making a show of the increased burden to show that DP World or other "investors" are needed.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#182

Post by JumpCrisscross » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:04 PM UTC

AlecSchueler wrote: post #177

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, brain fart. I meant Tibet. > feels like you're assuming that the American solution is necessary or the only way No. I think a regional solution would be better. But Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are constrained by domestic politics, and everyone else with militaries in the region is an ally who would expect America to take lead or a competing oil exporter.

Ah, ok. I think 1951 was a little bit before they adapted their current non interference policies. If the US and others weren't actively arming the Saudis then a regional solution might be easier to find.

> If the US and others weren't actively arming the Saudis then a regional solution might be easier to find

It’s a system problem that America didn’t start. Pulling the plug on Riyadh and Jerusalem would likely lead to their collapse, plunging the region into decades of anarchy.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#183

Post by Geisterde » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:09 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #167

Geisterde wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is quite disrespectful, on the contrary hitler did have a lot of support fron the US, and I wont quickly forget the all star cast of bankers, politicians, and media that supplied that aid. Nor will I forget the top picks from the Nazi experiment that were wisked away to safety. I believe it far more likely that you would come to their defense than I.

> hitler did have a lot of support fron the US Straw man. Also, in the 1940s. We condemn them for it. Very different from saying we should have let them be today, with the benefit of hindsight. > believe it far more likely that you would come to their defense than I Says the person who already has.

You point at something from a long time ago and say its bad, but dont reflect on what historical implications it has on the present. You cant just tie a bow on it and say it happened a long time ago, what institutions did those people find themselves in, what influences have they left behind? How did we get to a point where I can watch a video of nazis crucifying a russian jew and then lighting them on fire, and then we send them a bunch of guns? You are hunting for nazis in the wrong place, they arent your neighbors.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#184

Post by JumpCrisscross » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:10 PM UTC

Geisterde wrote: post #178

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> are playing with action figures, pushing troop markers around a board with no regard for the reality as it stands Great, we’ve devolved into generic ad hominem .

What do you want me to say, the f22 never worked, the f35 launched late and still has kinks, we have no hypersonic weapons or defense against them. Our competitors have been fielding hypersonic weapons, flying fifth generation fighters. Iran has a very simple military strategy due to their geography, and are dug in like its a national objective, wargames the US has held shows us losing. That fight will open the flood…

Sorry buddy, this is delusional and misinformed. If you’re not a troll, I hope you’re well. In any case, disengaging after this.

> the f35 launched late and still has kinks

Like every new platform, including our adversaries’. They are more than enough to SEAD Iran from BVR, even OTH. I would be shocked if more than a handful were lost in such a strike.

> we have no hypersonic weapons or defense against them

Usually war is hypothetical. In this case, we have modern Russian cruise missiles being shot down by decades-old Patriot batteries.

Hypersonics are largely a farce, but to the extent they’re being pursued, we have more programmes in development than Russia and China combined. And neither has demonstrated missile-defence piercing capability. (Even if they did, there aren’t enough to be a strategic issue.)

> wargames the US has held shows us losing

Yeah, if we try a ground invasion. Nobody suggested that. Nobody even suggested the decapitation I mooted. You’re multiple straw men deep.

American military supremacy is undisputed even by our adversaries. In a 1:1 conflict, we win. Not always, but certainly right now. We’re so overwhelmingly powerful it makes us arrogant, which leads to the very real risk of spreading ourselves thin. We probably can’t support a proxy war in Ukraine, Israel and Yemen while also fighting China around Taiwan. But engaging with any two of those alone? Mindblowingly easily.

> the rise of brics

Another vein of idiocy.

> regional war where we are being shot at from every direction

Welcome to the Middle East.

> the collapse of the currency

Let me guess, to be replaced by Bitcoin or a currency jointly managed by countries currently at war with one another.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#185

Post by Fatnino » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:13 PM UTC

whatever1 wrote: post #52

I like how Chinese do not want to get involved in protecting vessels, despite the fact that it’s their containers on board. Oh well, good old America has to save capitalism, yet again :)

Shipping between China and New York is approximately the same distance going either via Suez or Panama. So removing Suez does not impact CN-US shipping.

CN-EU gets hurt by this. And also ME oil going to Eastern US.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#186

Post by taeric » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:14 PM UTC

Geisterde wrote: post #111

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they are clearly irrational evil people that we just need to kill We don’t need to kill them. But it’s naive to think appeasement will work with folks calling for the destruction of an entire people. I suppose if I’m going to complain about us having to learn this lesson time and again, I should learn that well-meaning but tragically-naïve people will keep trying it, time and again. (Appeasement isn’t always irrati…

People argue about what motivated the 9/11 highjackers. Some will say, bin laden hated America, forget what he says about dual containment, he actually just hates us and is using that as a justification. Others will say, look, hes pointing out exactly what hes mad about, he says it right there. The former calls the latter naïve, the latter calls the former bellicose, they could well be both wrong. Maybe bin laden did…

Reducing suicidal terrorists to natural responses to occupation feels... somewhat ridiculous. Especially so when you consider how many occupations are currently happening in the world right now without all of them having large numbers of suicidal bombings.

More, this completely ignores all other suicidal activities. Cults that lead people to suicide. Bullied people that are driven to suicide. Etc.

Seems far more explanatory power can be found if you use indoctrination as the primary driver in such activities. If you manage to indoctrinate people that their life would be best spent by sacrificing it for others, and a valid sacrifice is to strap a bomb to their body, then you will see a rise in that activity.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#187

Post by s1artibartfast » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:20 PM UTC

no_wizard wrote: post #84

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> is the de facto Shia Government of Yemen They “exert de facto authority over the bulk of North Yemen” [1]. The problem is there is no single person who controls their armed groups. So striking a deal with one person provides zero assurance around what the others will do. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement#Houthi-contr...

I for the life of me can't figure out how countries end up in situations where a large subset of said population is not only armed by effectively uncontrollable by the government. How do they get money for arms? Where do the arms come from? Why is the government unable to exert any realistic control within their own borders? I know its a complex political problem, but I still don't get how in 2023 we still have warlo…

>I for the life of me can't figure out how countries end up in situations where a large subset of said population is not only armed by effectively uncontrollable by the government. How do they get money for arms? Where do the arms come from? Why is the government unable to exert any realistic control within their own borders?

The global reality is no government on earth can control a majority of the population without their consent.

Every aspect of government control relies humans, and if they refuse to participate, you need other humans to make them.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#188

Post by twic » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:22 PM UTC

no_wizard wrote: post #99

alephnerd wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How do they get money for arms? Where do the arms come from? Why is the government unable to exert any realistic control within their own borders In the Houthi's case, they're a clan. The entire clan pitched in because they were persecuted under Saleh - businessmen, service men, low level govenenent officials, etc. Familial and Clan traditons are still a thing.

Middle East politics have always felt beyond my understanding. I know we (as in western countries, specifically the US and the UK, but also others) contributed greatly to this mess (and still do to this day, in multiple ways). That said, at some point, you expect things to normalize, because fundamentally people should be conflict adverse, however, it seems this region has an unusually high rate of conflicts that are…

It's not necessarily driven by anything internal. Lots of parts of the Middle East are globally significant, because of oil and gas production and the Suez canal route. That means that they attract a lot of external meddling. For example, Iran is backing the Houthis with weapons, technology, and money. The United States has done various bits of meddling too, both supportive and not. If you pour the means of conflict into a region, you will tend to get more conflict there.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#189

Post by newsclues » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:28 PM UTC

yard2010 wrote: post #42

newsclues wrote: post #2

Global logistics is complicated, who knew?

Add stupid war with stupid evil axis and you get a puzzle from hell

The idea that the world just operates on autopilot and there isn’t a need for effective leadership is funny.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#190

Post by zdragnar » Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 5:43 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #168

zdragnar wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both the Clara and Swan were supposedly refusing to answer hails: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ukmto-ambrey-repor... Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea identified the vessels as the MSC Clara and Norwegian-owned Swan Atlantic, and said the attacks were carried out after their crews failed to respond to calls from the group. There's no mystery here. Nobody anywhere is wondering just what hijinks these groups…

> Both the Clara and Swan were supposedly refusing to answer hails Right, which is a touch broader than “targeting Israeli ships.” (It’s also convenient retcon. Where would I go next…paperwork wasn’t promptly provided? Paperwork appeared forged? We thought they were lying?)

They said they would attack anyone they thought was headed to an Israeli port.

What's the greater leap, them assuming that silence was unacceptable and therefore likely headed to Israel, or that they're taking random, unpredictable pot shots and their actual agenda isn't related to Israel at all?