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Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

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181–190 of 444 posts

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#181
post #74
post #25

The good new is that Nvidia's high GPU prices motivate everyone (Intel, AMD, ARM, Google, etc.) to try and tackle the problem by making new chips, making more efficient use of current chips, etc. For all the distributed computing efforts that have existed (prime factorization, SETI@Home, Bitcoin, etc.), I'm surprised there isn't some way for gamers to rent out use of their GPU's when idle. It wouldn't be efficient, b…

They’re all pretty motivated, they’ve been motivated for years, and almost nothing is happening. This situation isn’t exactly a poster child for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Every year just sounds like “Nvidia’s new consumer GPUs are adding new features, breaking previous performance ceilings, running games at huge resolutions and framerates. Their datacenter cards are completely sold out because they can spin s…

Are they motivated? Seems like a massive coincidence how the big two of the GPU world are cousins, and one has been having massive success on the CPU, the other on GPU/AI, and every attempt from both side to enter the other's niche has been pretty weak.

AMD compute is nowhere compared to NVIDIA. NVIDIA wanted to buy ARM, has got its finger in RISC-V, but apart from that, they don't really care. To be fair AMD has done decent with GPUs, but never enough to dethrone NVIDIA, whose playbook for the past few gens is "just make everything bigger than last gen and increase the frequency." Surely AMD could have chosen the same lazy approach to surpass the 4090 only just, but instead they didn't, so it's still NV undefeated in its space because AMD forgot to squeeze the last 1% out of their card.

The market is powerless if the competitors aren't really competing. Intel is the only chance, unless they manage to get their own Taiwanese CEO somehow related to Huang and Su.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#182
post #4

Whelp, I guess those September NVDA call options I sold are going to get exercised. Who woulda guessed after the crypto fallout that "AI" would come along and bump the price back up. Record revenues, and a dividend of $0.04 on a $450 stock? That's not even worth the paperwork. For example, if you bought 100 shares, that's $45K. From that, around September $4 will show up in your account, which you have to pay taxes o…

I sold 600C for this Friday an hour or so before earnings. Free money with 168% IV.

It is free money, until it isn’t!

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#183
post #3

Absolutely monster numbers. The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. Anyone who is a lot more versed in company valuation methodology see this as being near peak value, or does Nvidia have a lot more room to run?

It's pretty overpriced already if you're looking at the fundamentals, and has been for a while. But fundamentals haven't really mattered in tech stocks for a long time. If you want the responsible advice, it's overpriced. If you want my personal advice, well I bought more yesterday afternoon.

Can you add a little more color on what fundamentals is it overpriced? Have you looked at their QoQ growth (not even YoY) for last few quarters? I would say the stock price is just trying to keep up with the numbers they are putting out.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#184

What's also pretty interesting that they actually didn't sell more chips this quarter - they ... just pretty much doubled the prices (hence the huge margin). This is what having a monopoly looks like ! This is also why companies that manufacture their cards didn't report any uptick in profits. I'm wondering how this play out in some months ? Do they have any pricing power with respect to NVidia ? Or NVidia could just…

> This is what having a monopoly looks like ! As someone who has been in the AI/ML space for over a decade, and even had an AMD/Radeon card for more than half of that, I can't help but feel that this is partially AMD's own fault. For many, many years it seemed to me that AMD just didn't take AI/ML seriously whereas, for all it's faults, NVIDIA seemed to catch on very early that ML presented a tremendous potential mar…

Until very recently, AMD was struggling for survival. Rather than making the big bet on AI, they went for the sure thing by banking on revolutionary CPU tech. I'm sure if they were in a better financial position 5 years ago, they would have gone bigger on AI.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#185

What's also pretty interesting that they actually didn't sell more chips this quarter - they ... just pretty much doubled the prices (hence the huge margin). This is what having a monopoly looks like ! This is also why companies that manufacture their cards didn't report any uptick in profits. I'm wondering how this play out in some months ? Do they have any pricing power with respect to NVidia ? Or NVidia could just…

Isn't this more a case of supply and demand? Huge ramp on chip demand by every FAAMG, every dev and their grandmothers for AI with a mostly inelastic supply (foundry constrained and very specialized atoms tech involved).

It's not like Intel and AMD don't exist, but if everyone is pushing each other at the door for Nvidia chips..

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large enterprises are already putting them into production. I have direct experience with it. It's not unassailable. But it's going to take a lot to make any difference to Nvidia's volume or pricing, let alone a meaningful difference. They already face serious competitors in google and aws with TPU and inferentia, but those competitors are at a pretty big disadvantage for now (and others too). The cuda ecosystem is a…

> Large enterprises are already putting them into production. I have direct experience with it. For what function have you experienced LLMs being used at significant scale in production right now? It seems unlikely most enterprises have built up sufficient technical know-how to run these workloads in-house already. > They already face serious competitors in google and aws with TPU and inferentia TPUv4s aren't widely…

Customer support. I've never seen so many people get up to speed so fast on something. It's unlike anything ever.

Yep.

I believe so.

I don't believe Pat.

With the relevant audience, Nvidia is the brand which is the strongest. Google could just drop support for TPU, AMD isn't viewed as currently credible for people doing the work, nor Intel.

You may be right, only time will tell. I've been involved with GPU use for general purpose workloads since Cuda was launched. At every step of the way there was apparently credible competition at different layers of the stack just around the corner. That's over 15 years. OpenCL, ASICs, FPGA, Intel this that and the other, AMD this that and the other. TPU. Others I've forgotten.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#187
post #87

I've seen a regular stream of reports on HN about people "sort of" getting AI done on laptops and non and lowly GPU machines. Is it unreasonable or far-fetched to imagine that someone figures out how to efficiently get it all done without GPUs and pull the rug out from under Nvidia?

Just like existence of MariaDB does not prevent Snowflake from being worth $50B, just being good enough on laptop is not enough to replace the need for the cutting edge.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#188
post #178
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My impression was that they used "Efficient Market Hypothesis" to mean "the theory that free-market competition rapidly drives down prices and breaks up monopolies on its own".

That theory is still valid, the issue is that the competition can't or won't even try to make a better product or a cheaper one. The rule only applies if there exist competing products in the first place. If there was any, the prices would go down as we have seen a billion times.

So, why’s that not happening, and what’s it imply for the rest of the theoretical framework?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#189
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is what having a monopoly looks like ! As someone who has been in the AI/ML space for over a decade, and even had an AMD/Radeon card for more than half of that, I can't help but feel that this is partially AMD's own fault. For many, many years it seemed to me that AMD just didn't take AI/ML seriously whereas, for all it's faults, NVIDIA seemed to catch on very early that ML presented a tremendous potential mar…

Until very recently, AMD was struggling for survival. Rather than making the big bet on AI, they went for the sure thing by banking on revolutionary CPU tech. I'm sure if they were in a better financial position 5 years ago, they would have gone bigger on AI.

And arguable their bet on CPU tech worked! AMD is in a much better position today than they were 5+ years ago. They have some catching up to do but that doesn't mean their completely out of the game.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#190

What's also pretty interesting that they actually didn't sell more chips this quarter - they ... just pretty much doubled the prices (hence the huge margin). This is what having a monopoly looks like ! This is also why companies that manufacture their cards didn't report any uptick in profits. I'm wondering how this play out in some months ? Do they have any pricing power with respect to NVidia ? Or NVidia could just…

Nvidia and really all chip designers are limited by the fab companies who are trying to scale as fast as they can. But all the cutting edge fabs are limited by one single supplier - ASML. ASML make the lithography machines and have a total monopoly. Even they cannot make lithography machines fast enough to satisfy demand - their lithography machines are sold out 2 years in advance
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