Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you say that?
Removing the dependence of chip manufacturing from non-Nato countries and bringing them to the United States.
Was that a common factor to the previous world wars?
How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
181–190 of 257 posts
Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...
Careful. The cost of a fab makes it very difficult for competitors to start up. Working in a field with only a few competitors seems attractive, but you risk specializing in skills that only few businesses worldwide can leverage. I used to work in semiconductors and transitioned to software when I realized how precarious that was.
I used to work in semiconductors as well. At the SAS A2/S2 lines right down the street.
I wasn't actually suggesting that I return to my former employer, although the thought has crossed my mind...
My reasoning for a move would be about all of the higher-order consequences of having well-compensated technology enthusiasts imported by the thousands.
Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
#183[dead]
Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
#184Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…
A commitment that apparently does not include: - treating anyone who isn't "white enough" with dignity and without extreme suspicion of being in the country illegally. Driving in texas and not white enough? You might end up in jail if you don't have sufficient proof on you that you're not "an illegal" - a reliable power grid, because they petulantly do not want to have to follow federal regulations in how they run sa…
> a reliable power grid
Texas ranks about middle of the pack by most statistics in electrical grid reliability while also being one of the cheapest places in the US. Its also expanding renewable energy faster than any other state in the US, by a massive margin.
> electrical pricing that doesn't swing by 4 orders of magnitude or more
Clearly shows you don't actually know what you're talking about. The vast majority of households and businesses in Texas are on fixed rate contracts. The price of my electricity swings every three years or so. The headlines you're reading are spot prices; the vast majority of people don't directly pay those.
> a well-funded public school system with science-based curriculum to develop their children into a skilled workforce capable of critical thinking, being retrained, etc
Eh, PreK-12 35th overall according to US News, not great. 25th for higher education, so exactly middle of the pack. There's a lot worse of places to be education-wise. It really varies from school district to school district though. US News ranks the high school my kids will eventually attend in the top 16% of schools nationally. The smaller college I attended was ranked in the top third of all national universities. Not too bad.
> Why would they go to Texas?
As mentioned, loads of opportunity and comparatively low costs of living compared to a lot of other places.
Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should. So, if there is a bubble in the chip supply pipeline, auto manufacture doesn't happen. If there is undersupply of precursor chemicals it takes a while to make vaccines at scale... What you are talking about makes me think of the very long lead product…
This is explicitly why Boise State University, an otherwise middle-to-low-tier research university boasts such a high-quality materials engineering department. BSU actually hold some of their intro-to-materials-science courses at the Boise Micron fab so Micron employees can work towards said degrees without missing as much work to commute between the two locations. Edit to add: I've met a few people who are aware of…
Current analysis projects US semi to face shortage of ~80k talent in next few years, ~300k+ in by decades end. This is reality pretty much in every semi producer countries, SKR and TW both have 50k-100k+ shortage with pretty developed talent pipeline. From everything I've read, current US+co short/medium term talent production won't be enough fill all the new fabs being proposed. Unviable due to operating costs which can always be subsidized, unviable due to lack of talent is much harder to address. Apart from training more, only way to plug gap is to poach talent from CHIP4 partners, which US has the money for. But I surmise it will get geopolitically ugly.
For reference PRC after elevating semi to first-level dicipline in 2018 is pumping out about 30k IC graduates per year. They're still about 200k short, ~520k/720k out of what IC talent 2018 white paper estimated PRC needed for complete semi industry. This is PRC that graduates ~5M STEM with huge population to draw from that bias towards S&T in tertiary. Which leads to the other uncomfortable point that a complete semi industry is more than just fabs, there's a lot of critical semi supply chain stuck in TW / East Asia (SKR/JP) that's going to get disrupted anyway in event of conflict. I don't see any indication US is resolving to reshore the entire semi chain.
Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should. So, if there is a bubble in the chip supply pipeline, auto manufacture doesn't happen. If there is undersupply of precursor chemicals it takes a while to make vaccines at scale... What you are talking about makes me think of the very long lead product…
This is explicitly why Boise State University, an otherwise middle-to-low-tier research university boasts such a high-quality materials engineering department. BSU actually hold some of their intro-to-materials-science courses at the Boise Micron fab so Micron employees can work towards said degrees without missing as much work to commute between the two locations. Edit to add: I've met a few people who are aware of…
There's not much prestige as a BSU alumni (and someone doing a masters part-time there), but I do distinctly remember chatting with materials graduate students and them mentioning that they chose BSU because of the ease of availability for equipment required for research and having Micron right there.
There's a few good things that the university offers which is surprisingly strong. When i went back to prepare for a CS masters (military, self-taught) I was surprised at the quality of the undergraduate degree in preparing students for industry, and how quickly the security program was invested in (INL does a lot of investment here).
All that to say: it's a pretty good school, especially for it's price. I only ever had one bad professor, and it was in the supply chain management department. And it was (is still?) the only raptor biology masters in the country.
Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
#187Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…
A commitment that apparently does not include: - treating anyone who isn't "white enough" with dignity and without extreme suspicion of being in the country illegally. Driving in texas and not white enough? You might end up in jail if you don't have sufficient proof on you that you're not "an illegal" - a reliable power grid, because they petulantly do not want to have to follow federal regulations in how they run sa…
For all these issues, states like Texas are going to be vastly more practical than doing any real projects in places like California. Look at California's record on railway, housing, etc. SF spends $1B/mile on railway (see Central subway), or $1M on a public toilet. If anything, moving more industries to states like Texas or Georgia is a great way to improve the overall dynamics of the state. This already happened to a great degree with film/tv studios moving to Atlanta.
Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...
It’s the worst business to work for. You’ll work 60 hours a week for shitty pay, and be the Yoda of some tool. In 10 years there will be a new magic tool. Then you start learning the Starbucks menu.
It's the best possible bootcamp for engineers if you are lucky enough to land a role in systems engineering (or its equivalent). If you actually pay attention and participate, you will learn about ways of troubleshooting that will stick with you forever. The notion of making an assumption is completely exorcised from your body - in this industry, the consequences of bad assumptions cost at least a million bucks always. You might also learn helpful terms like "value-add" that will guide your business sense for the rest of your life.
I can see why a lot of people hate the idea of semiconductor manufacturing. It is the apex of "by the books" while simultaneously exhibiting the most incredible shiny technology on the face of the planet. Being forced to follow all of these rules and procedures to get at the shiny tech rubs a lot of people the wrong way. "What do you mean I can't take my smart phone into the office? Y'all make its memory here." The pay is also arguably pretty bad unless you lock in for life.
I would say you get what you want out of it, just like anything. If you walk in with an entitlement mindset and expect the knowledge to be forced into your brain, you are in for a really shitty ride just as you describe. If you walk in thinking "I'll bust my ass here for 3-5 years and learn what I can", you will have a much better experience.
I didn't even know I wanted to write software full time until I was sitting in a cubicle at Samsung's ATX office for a few years. In my opinion, if you aren't sure what you want to do but you really love all things tech, why the hell not? Try it out. It was a great stepping stone for me.
Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
#189This all feels like a prelude to a World War.
For the USA, war (at some level) has pretty much always been constant. Autarky also isn't new to the USA. The current on-shoring movement seems to me to be more about the USA's empire collapsing, and the military contractors getting worried about their supply lines. So, prelude to WWIII? Maybe, but it can be explained in other ways.
Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
>One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should. I would say exactly the opposite, the vaccines were made quite quickly and there weren't major supply issues. The Defense Production Act (er... central planning as you put it) was used to say what was going to happen when with money to back it up and…
This would have been categorically true circa-1970s. Unfortunately, US industrial vertical integration now includes foundations placed in global low-labor-cost countries. The crash vaccine manufacturing scaling program was possible because we were rich enough to throw mountains of money (of which we have the most) at any international supply problems. If the Atlantic or Pacific had been hostile to commercial shipping…
Russia's military is being decimated, just not at the line of contact currently. You're watching a protracted battle play out all across the world right now between Russian interests and Western interests. Some of these include:
1. Russian/Wagner (now admitted to be the same) neocolonialism in African states, most recently Niger. Within days Niger stopped trading Uranium to France. Conveniently, France is the least dependent on Russia for energy and will force the French to buy outside of Niger and then refocus on Russia.
2. The latest naval drone hit on a Russian oil tanker in the Black Sea took place well beyond the expected range of Ukrainian capability, which likely means someone else (Turkey?) helped at least get it into launch range. This coupled with the Ukrainian position that all russian ships, and all ships trading with russia are now targets in the Black Sea is also big for the area.
Currently Russians may not be dying in droves defending their positions. However, the knock on effects for russian military capacity, industrial capacity, and naval capacity are incredible. The longer they flounder and the more they commit to Ukraine, the more their traditional enemies are able to take advantage of their weakness.
If russian gas and oil cannot flow out of the black sea safely, their PMC backed interests in Africa and South American become less effective, and the corresponding governments will look elsewhere for influence/protection/trade.