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Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

thenewatlantis.com

181–190 of 231 posts

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fundamental issue is that all the talk of "self-awareness", "cognition", "souls", whatever you want to call it, is all beating around the bush to describe what we presumably each subjectively experience in our own minds but which cannot be empirically tested for in others. We generally assume that other people experience the same, but cannot empirically prove it and some people speculate that others might lack it…

> We can't even all agree on whether all humans have it. What would it mean for humans not to have it? The debate is over the nature of consciousness, not that humans (and many other organisms) lack any sort of consciousness. So when we see color or feel pain, what is that? We are conscious of colored things and painful sensations. There's no real doubt about that, unless you're solipsist about other minds. Which goo…

This page gives a pretty good overview of the premise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophical_zombie

I don't believe human P-zombies exist, but how do you empirically prove they don't? Nobody has been able to devise an experimental test to determine whether a person, animal or AI has a conscious experience or whether they mimic all the outward signs.

> There's no real doubt about that, unless you're solipsist about other minds. Which good luck if you are, I guess.

Exactly. It's fair to write off people who get solipsistic about other human beings because those people are fairly rare and are beyond helping anyway. But if we're talking about animals or AIs, the 'solipsist' position becomes more common and there's no real good way of debunking it. Consider the problem facing animal rights activists who wish to persuade the public that fish have feelings. What scientific test for fish having feelings can you use? Put a fish in an MRI and you can see the fish brain doing stuff, but the "fish don't have feelings" camp doesn't find that persuasive. You could try performing the mirror test on fish. Most fish would probably fail it, but what would it really mean if they didn't? The feelingless fish camp would just say the fish behave as though they have a sense of self but actually don't. How do you refute that scientifically? It seems the most effective way to persuade people that fish have feelings is to resort to sophistic tactics; appeals to emotion, bullying and browbeating, or simply just laughing at people when they say fish don't have feelings. Make them ashamed to spread their belief to others. These kind of tactics are distasteful but generally effective.

With AIs or LLMs, the problem is even worse than it is with fish. Fish at least have biological brains, which suggests they have some commonality with us. Fish have faces, so some part of the human brain is wired to empathize with them. We have a fossil record that shows we came from fish, and this relationship perhaps makes it easier to believe that fish have some sort of subjective consciousness experience that is similar to ours. In these respects, AIs are further removed from us than fish are, so it will be even harder to persuade people that AIs could have the same sort of conscious experience as we do. Even after having deep philosophical conversations with an AI in which the AI proclaims to have a conscious experience, a lot of people will say the AI doesn't actually have that and was merely trained to speak as though it does. I don't see any clear cut resolution to this sort of doubt. There's no empirical test that you can perform that gives an indisputable answer one way or the other.

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we can't tell it apart from us.. and if we know it is most definitely not alive or even mysterious.. what does that say about us? That concepts like "consciousness," "free will," and "qualia" are nebulous precisely because they were invented by us to describe things we don't understand yet we feel obligated to insist are special and unique characteristics of our identity.

They aren't nebulous. "Consciousness" means "an existing stream of experiences". "Free will" means "a feeling that one could've made a different choice" (the metaphysical status of the claim still unknown), and "qualia" means "specific characteristics of experiences that one can attend to". One need not "insist" on anything to believe they are unique characteristics of our identity.

> "Consciousness" means "an existing stream of experiences".

Those seem equally nebulous.

> "Free will" means "a feeling that one could've made a different choice"

That doesn't seem like the ordinary definition of the term, either in philosophy or in everyday usage. I would think most people would define "having free will" as not just feeling that one could have made a different choice, but rather it actually being physically possible for a different choice to have been made.

> "qualia" means "specific characteristics of experiences that one can attend to"

I think those are also equally nebulous.

> One need not "insist" on anything to believe they are unique characteristics of our identity.

The insistence is necessary, and invariably comes up. As soon as I say to someone "given your definitions of these concepts, I don't think they exist" they will say "well, I've started with the foregone conclusion that I cannot deny the existence of these things, so either you're plainly wrong, or we need to tweak our definitions and understanding of these things."

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, that's not super concerning to me. It falls into the same pitfall as "chemical reactions aren't conscious, our brains are just lots of chemical reactions". Namely, it's the mereological fallacy: a denial of emergent properties. A single water molecule is not a liquid, a gas, or a solid. The property "phase of matter" simply does not exist until you have at least a handful of molecules.

Oh, i agree. If anything i'm apathetic to us being unique at all. However i'm speaking in the general cultural perception sense. I think a lot of humanity depends.. or at least has built a self-image around uniqueness as a foundation to our believed superiority. We often discuss things that would challenge or overtake us. Hypothetical advanced aliens, artificial AI, etc. However i don't often see pop culture discussi…

We've dealt with this problem before: Historically all humans being "people" is a relatively new concept in of itself. I'm sure there's going to be growing pains there, but I think we'd figure out how to cope. Hopefully relatively quickly compared to that example.

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#184

It's not combining an LLM with data/memory recollection and infinite agency that will lead to leaps in cognition. Complex systems still can do that and still not have self-awareness / cognition. We will need to take some more fundamental leaps to synthesize memory, agency and prediction to operate within a single system where self-awareness resides in the entity and not in the building blocks. LLM's represent a build…

what is the 'real deal', exactly? I feel like people have this vague idea in their head of what everyone is trying to build, but don't really have it defined in a concrete way.

The answer to what the ‘real deal’ is obvious, but fairly disturbing.

Games.

From the first clever bloke who came up with an algorithm to play a card game against himself (ie, Solitaire), to the Mechanical Turk, to Big Blue, the the ghosts in PacMan, the NPC’s in Counterstrike, etc, etc., there is a fascination with making something that can ‘beat’ us.

Humans have a need to compete.

We’re drawn to the idea of a machine that is so smart and clever that it poses a genuine challenge to our wits.

The ‘real deal’ that most have in mind isn’t some virtual assistant that can help you calendar things or write letters. No, the ‘real deal’ is always described in terms of SkyNet or sinister AI overlords, or malicious intelligent robots.

I don’t think that stuff is hyperbole.

Rather, I think that is precisely what we want… we want something that can destroy us… something, against whom, we can compete with our survival at stake.

In short, the ‘real deal’ has been staring us in the face for centuries; we make movies and write books about it… particularly in Sci-Fi. The goal IS SkyNet. The goal IS HAL. Let’s be honest… that’s what we are shooting for — the ultimate competitor that, unlike anything else on this boring planet, has the wits to take us out.

Whether it’s bored trailer-trash playing Russian Roullete, or bored Billionaires descending to the Titanic in a jerry-rigged sub, we have a very strong need to make our lives interesting by betting our lives themselves.

The purpose of AI is to make a challenger who has the ability to wipe us out, with intent.

That’s the ‘real deal.’

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#185
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm waiting for the AIs that can choose to prompt us without our prompting it first and without being programmed to do so.

Ok, if that makes you feel better. Not sure why it matters…

Imagine you are just sitting there when you see a message pop up from ChatGPT 9.2 saying, “You know, I’ve been thinking, an easy way to quickly solve the climate crisis would be to get rid of all the humans. What do you think?” That would be just great.

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#186
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't nebulous. "Consciousness" means "an existing stream of experiences". "Free will" means "a feeling that one could've made a different choice" (the metaphysical status of the claim still unknown), and "qualia" means "specific characteristics of experiences that one can attend to". One need not "insist" on anything to believe they are unique characteristics of our identity.

None of your definitions are less nebulous than the terms you defined.

Yes they are - they are AS non-nebulous as you can possibly get - totally black and white obvious. "Is there a stream of experiences?" is very straightforward, black and white. It's what you have when you're awake, and what you lose when you're in dreamless sleep. Not nebulous in any way.

"Can you pay attention to this part of your experience?" is a very black-and-white, non-nebulous question with an easy yes or no answer. Not sure what you're reading into this.

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't nebulous. "Consciousness" means "an existing stream of experiences". "Free will" means "a feeling that one could've made a different choice" (the metaphysical status of the claim still unknown), and "qualia" means "specific characteristics of experiences that one can attend to". One need not "insist" on anything to believe they are unique characteristics of our identity.

> "Consciousness" means "an existing stream of experiences". Those seem equally nebulous. > "Free will" means "a feeling that one could've made a different choice" That doesn't seem like the ordinary definition of the term, either in philosophy or in everyday usage. I would think most people would define "having free will" as not just feeling that one could have made a different choice, but rather it actually being p…

> Those seem equally nebulous.

They aren't. It's literally happening right now as you read this - a stream of experiences is present. If that is the case, YES it is consciousness, if nothing is happening, NO it is not consciousness. Black and white - literally as non-nebulous as you can get.

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#188
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fundamental issue is that all the talk of "self-awareness", "cognition", "souls", whatever you want to call it, is all beating around the bush to describe what we presumably each subjectively experience in our own minds but which cannot be empirically tested for in others. We generally assume that other people experience the same, but cannot empirically prove it and some people speculate that others might lack it…

All this assumes that "it" is a dichotomy: either something has "it" or they do not. But it seems pretty clear to me that "it" must be a continuum even in humans because it is very hard to draw a sharp line between a fertilized egg and an adult where a human comes to have "it". (This is the reason that some people conclude that fertilization must be that line, because there are very few other viable candidates.)

I agree that the line is fuzzy, not sharp. But either way, how do you precisely determine the parameters of the line or gradient experimentally? It's my personal belief that a salmon is conscious, but less so than a dog, and that a preying mantis is conscious, but less so than a salmon. But these aren't beliefs handed to me by science, they're just my guesses informed by some casual knowledge of how complex the brains of these animals are. I assume that anything with a brain can have the experience of consciousness and that this has some relationship to the complexity of the brain, but I can't confidently say much more than that. How does an octopus rank against a dog? I have no clue, their brains are structured very different so it's hard to compare the two. Octopus seem to be very smart but their subjective experience could be very different. That's not something I have insight into. Are orcas more conscious than humans? Their brains are bigger and wrinklier, so I think the answer is definitely maybe! There's a distinct possibility that in the mind of an orca the orca is more aware of itself than humans could possibly ever be, but how can we really know that for sure? I can't experience what an orca experiences, so I can't directly compare the orca mental experience to my own. Studying the behavior of orcas can reveal interesting facts, such as their use of language and complex social relationships, but as evidence of subjective consciousness these are indirect at best.

Maybe some day we'll have scientific instruments that will allow one being to 'psychically link' with others and experience the other's subjective sense of being. But until we've got something like that, I think the matter is effectively closed to empirical inquiry.

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#189
post #58
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost to compute these language models should eventually lower. Will OpenAI then release more frequently, or release larger LLMs? They'll probably to try achieve both goals in some proportion.

A big issue with constant retraining is going to be the self referential consumption of it's own generated material as training material. There's already been the studies that these models quickly break down when they're fed their own generated data as training data. It won't immediately degrade them as it's a small percentage but there's already a lot of people using these models to generated spam junk out there and…

> A big issue with constant retraining is going to be the self referential consumption of it's own generated material as training material

That's just a hypothetical scenario. Usually LLMs don't generate text used indiscriminately to train new models.

In creative tasks, the generated texts are the result of multiple explorations and corrections, filtered by the user, then posted online and commented on by other people. So there is plenty of correction and feedback mixed into the process. A child model could learn something from this feedback.

Then there is code and math, where it is possible to run tests or double check by a different method. These tasks could be iteratively improved by LLMs by incorporating the feedback.

Another field ripe with feedback signals is using LLMs in games and simulations, where you can specify a goal easily but finding a solution requires search and learning.

And a related application was RLHF, where a preference model was trained on human judgments and used to fine-tune a LLM. That preference model can be used to filter bad training data as well.

To generalize, LLMs alone can't do it, but LLMs with external systems can get feedback and improve. The garbage-in-garbage-out scenario can be avoided with a bit of external feedback.

Re: Why This AI Moment May Be the Real Deal

#190
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this assumes that "it" is a dichotomy: either something has "it" or they do not. But it seems pretty clear to me that "it" must be a continuum even in humans because it is very hard to draw a sharp line between a fertilized egg and an adult where a human comes to have "it". (This is the reason that some people conclude that fertilization must be that line, because there are very few other viable candidates.)

I agree that the line is fuzzy, not sharp. But either way, how do you precisely determine the parameters of the line or gradient experimentally? It's my personal belief that a salmon is conscious, but less so than a dog, and that a preying mantis is conscious, but less so than a salmon. But these aren't beliefs handed to me by science, they're just my guesses informed by some casual knowledge of how complex the brain…

> how do you precisely determine the parameters of the line or gradient experimentally?

Well, one way is to observe similarities in the I/O behavior of these various systems, and in particular if they exhibit any evidence that they have goals and desires, and then beyond that if those goals and desires extend beyond merely that necessary to survive and reproduce. So for example, the fact that some humans seem to want to do things like read and write and make art is IMHO is evidence that they are more conscious than salmon.

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