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Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

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Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#181

Post by mikeryan »

dffdsa432 wrote: post #142
CapstanRoller wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mass shootings aren't correlated with poverty. Guns are expensive. Most mass shooters are disaffected folks in the "middle class" who have money to acquire weapons (or access to weapons via relatives) and time to spend immersing themselves in online right-wing cesspits. Actual poor people are too busy trying to grind and survive.

The most violent cities in America are all blue cities. https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-viol...

Shit. Your own source disproves that if you use the most recent data

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-dang...

Take off the minimum population requirement of 100k residents and the most dangerous metro areas are all small, rural conservative towns. https://www.statista.com/statistics/433603/us-metropolitan-a...

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#182

Post by jjoonathan »

Dig1t wrote: post #132
jjoonathan wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if you assume California is socialist it all makes sense. There's just one tiny little problem: it isn't, and not only is this office space privately owned but the problems causing these vacancies are probably principal agent problems directly attributable to the structure of the free market controlling them (landlords either want to bet on a recovery or agreed to credit terms that would cascade a single write-…

>directly attributable to the structure of the free market controlling them This is completely wrong, city zoning does not allow commercial buildings to be used for housing. Local government literally has direct control of the allowed uses for buildings. Additionally, even if you completely got rid of zoning it is very risky to be a landlord in CA now because of government eviction policies. As a tenant in CA you can…

Looks like I hit a nerve. I can't help but notice that you conspicuously avoided addressing the explanation I've been hearing for the commercial real estate problems:

> landlords either want to bet on a recovery or agreed to credit terms that would cascade a single write-down

and instead substituted two theories of your own, one of which has nothing to do with commercial real estate and the other of which has zero explanatory power for "why now." We can get to those, but first could you explain why you think the explanations I've been hearing are wrong?

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#183

Post by CydeWeys »

alephnerd wrote: post #174
CydeWeys wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I'm not gonna argue with you that NYC has always been better than SF (it obviously has), but post-pandemic now the difference is even more stark. NYC's economy is much more diverse than SF's, and also has much more housing within city limits, to the point that it hasn't suffered nearly as much from the pandemic, and indeed right now is booming whereas SF is withering.

Ehn, SF is returning to its pre-2010 roots (heck, even the population in SF has fallen to the same level as it was in the 2000s). The entire sofrware+hardware industry before the 2010s was south of Redwood Shores and the biotech industry was always situated in northern San Mateo County. Before the 2010s, SF was primarily a hub for the Northern California legal+investment banking industries, both of which cratered dur…

SF was a much different place pre-2010. And it's going to be rough getting back there from here. In particular the city's expenditures are way higher now (but without revenues to match), and the homeless crisis is way worse.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#185

Post by CapstanRoller »

dffdsa432 wrote: post #142
CapstanRoller wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mass shootings aren't correlated with poverty. Guns are expensive. Most mass shooters are disaffected folks in the "middle class" who have money to acquire weapons (or access to weapons via relatives) and time to spend immersing themselves in online right-wing cesspits. Actual poor people are too busy trying to grind and survive.

The most violent cities in America are all blue cities. https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-viol...

>muh red cities

>muh blue cities

>deflecting from the larger point and arguing about team colors

It's all so tiresome.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#186

Post by alephnerd »

mikeryan wrote: post #181
dffdsa432 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most violent cities in America are all blue cities. https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-viol...

Shit. Your own source disproves that if you use the most recent data https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-dang... Take off the minimum population requirement of 100k residents and the most dangerous metro areas are all small, rural conservative towns. https://www.statista.com/statistics/433603/us-metropolitan-a...

Most of those cities on the less than 100k list have Dems in government as well, but imo this isn't a Dem-GOP issue and more of a "urban" versus "rural" issue - specifically these are all cities that have been left behind due to an oversized population of minorities (eg. Anchorage+Fairbanks for Native Americans, Memphis+Pine Bluffs+Monroe+Alexandria+Little Rock for African Americans, ABQ+Lubbock for Latino Americans) and severely deindustrialized (eg. Memphis, ABQ, Lubbock, Little Rock, Danville) due to bipartisan support of globalization in the 1990s and the collapse of the energy sector in the 1990s-2000s

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#187

Post by CapstanRoller »

bombcar wrote: post #144
CapstanRoller wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mass shootings aren't correlated with poverty. Guns are expensive. Most mass shooters are disaffected folks in the "middle class" who have money to acquire weapons (or access to weapons via relatives) and time to spend immersing themselves in online right-wing cesspits. Actual poor people are too busy trying to grind and survive.

Mass shootings are technically any that have a victim count over a certain number and the vast majority of those are committed by criminals with cheap weapons. Guns are not expensive, they're way cheaper than a car. The Hipoint C9 retails new for $199. If you can afford a mobile phone (read: almost everyone in the USA) you can afford multiple guns.

[flagged]

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#188

Post by buzzert »

benburleson wrote: post #134
oatmeal1 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Avoiding red states to avoid being shot would be extremely dumb for many reasons. 1. Cities and neighborhoods in any state can be safe, even in the states with the most shootings 2. If you have enough money to choose to live in another state, you're probably not going to be living in an extremely poor area that is the most likely to be beset with gun violence 3. Other commonplace things are much more likely to kill y…

Texas sure seems to be an outlier though.

Utah as well. Arizona also has a much higher standard of living than California.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#189

Post by alephnerd »

CydeWeys wrote: post #183
alephnerd wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ehn, SF is returning to its pre-2010 roots (heck, even the population in SF has fallen to the same level as it was in the 2000s). The entire sofrware+hardware industry before the 2010s was south of Redwood Shores and the biotech industry was always situated in northern San Mateo County. Before the 2010s, SF was primarily a hub for the Northern California legal+investment banking industries, both of which cratered dur…

SF was a much different place pre-2010. And it's going to be rough getting back there from here. In particular the city's expenditures are way higher now (but without revenues to match), and the homeless crisis is way worse.

I was a kid here in the late 90s/early 2000s.

It's still as crummy now as it was then. I remember seeing drug addicts on market as a kid, as well as the gang crap in Hunter Points (what's now called Mission Bay - India Basin has been renamed Hunters Point) and Mission District.

The difference is Mission, Northern Tenderloin/"Lower Nob Hill", Western Addition/"Hayes Valley", and Hunters Point had been extremely gentrified at a shallow level by transient white collar workers and creative types (artists, musicians, etc) in their 20s and 30s (aka. Most SF HN commentators)

Neither group started families let alone sent kids to public schools in SF, nor were either group actively connected with electoral politics within SF (voting isn't connected), and the same issues that I saw in K-8 in SFUSD continue to persist.

Also, a massive proportion of SF's population cannot vote due to immigration status (around 40% last I checked). Add to that an addition 10-20% to represent unattached transplants and townies and the voting pie shrinks massively, so SF politicians end up pandering to the subset that votes instead

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#190

Post by CapstanRoller »

dffdsa432 wrote: post #133
Tiktaalik wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that personal politics don't end up being a personal thing because they result in real policies that guide real material outcomes. At this point saying one is uninterested in living in a red state could be about party politics, but it also could just as much about not being inclined to subject onesself to starkly higher risks of being shot and killed (the outcome of someone's personal politics). eg. http…

What percentage of gays and minorities were shot in Provo or Lincoln compared to cities like San Francisco and Chicago? I am assuming you have statistics to back your statements. The highest gun violence rates are in heavily blue cities like Detroit, St. Louis, Memphis and Baltimore.

Shooting isn't the only form of repression. It's not even the most prominent or insidious form. There's a big difference between murder and a hate crime.

Cop violence isn't counted in murder stats, by the way, because it's "lawful" and they're effectively above the law.

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